Kazim AlamThe US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, will determine control of Congress and shape the last two years of President Donald Trump’s final term.
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress, will be up for grabs in the midterms – the informal term for the nationwide polls held in the middle of every four-year presidential term.
Elections will also be held for 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, the upper chamber of Congress, on the same day.
Currently, the Republican Party has a slim majority in both chambers.
Without a majority in Congress, the incumbent president finds it difficult to pass legislation or make key appointments.
But historical patterns show that the party of the sitting president usually loses House seats in midterms. That has been the case in roughly 20 of the last 22 midterm cycles.
Experts say the trend is likely to continue, even though rising polarisation in US society, along with other factors, complicates any major shift in voting patterns.
“During the past 10 years with Trump dominating the political scene, many of the old rules and historical traditions have been defied,” John Zogby, a public opinion pollster and co-founder of the Arab American Institute, tells TRT World.
Since 1982, every first-term president – with the sole exception of George W Bush in 2002 – has lost seats in the first congressional election after his ascendancy, he notes.
Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Trump himself in 2018 “lost a huge number of seats” in the midterms.
“As things stand right now, all of the ingredients appear to be in place for the opposition Democratic Party to continue this legacy,” Zogby says.
Trump’s approval ratings are at a low point. They are particularly low on affordability, the economy, and the war in Iran, which are issues that “matter most to American voters”.
Barely a fortnight before the election, “the president’s party appears to be in trouble,” he says.
According to David Schultz, a professor of political science at Hamline University and editor of Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, the historical pattern of the president's party losing House seats in midterms should be treated only as a “strong tendency”, and not a law.
The exceptions of 1998 when backlash to Clinton’s impeachment helped Democrats – and 2002 when the September 11 attacks created support for George W Bush – show that “unusual external events” can override the ordinary midterm referendum dynamic.
“As of (now), the major polling averages put Trump’s approval between about 36 and 38 percent,” Schultz tells TRT World.
He points out that the share of swing voters in the electorate has shrunk from 10-15 percent in earlier decades to closer to 0-5 percent.
Meanwhile, the number of truly competitive House seats has fallen from around 120 to about 30.
With fewer voters available to switch sides, outcomes depend more heavily on who turns out on the day of election.
“Detachment from Trump is not the same as attachment to Democrats,” Schultz says.
He expects Republicans to lose House seats, but the size of their seat losses is “far less certain” at this point.
Trump’s name on the ballot?
Presidential approval among voters in midterms ranks among the strongest single predictors of the outcome, experts say.
Zogby points to past cycles in which weak presidential approval, paired with economic stress or unpopular policies, produced large losses: Reagan amid a recession in 1982, Clinton in 1994, and Obama after the Affordable Care Act in 2010.
Trump has reinforced the personal nature of the contest, telling supporters to “vote like his name is on the ballot”, Zogby notes.
Schultz cautions that the relationship between the presidential approval and midterm outcomes is not automatic.
Presidential approval works better when paired with economic perceptions, he says.
Both signals are negative for Republicans this year: voters are sour on the economy and the country’s direction, he adds.
A survey by Quinnipiac University, a non-partisan polling service, has shown only about 32 percent approving of Trump’s handling of the economy against 65 percent disapproving.
But Schultz notes many reasons why poll numbers may overstate Democratic gains.
Roughly 79 percent of Republicans still approve of Trump, according to Quinnipiac polling.
Disapproval does not automatically translate into a vote for the other party, he insists, adding that independent voters now make up a smaller, more disengaged share of the electorate than in earlier eras.
Issues that matter
Zogby describes the top concerns among the electorate as having “melded into one super issue”, as affordability, the war in the Middle East, and inflation.
This goes against Republicans because they currently hold power at House, Senate, and presidential levels.
Even on issues long favourable to Republicans – such as immigration and crime – the Republican Party’s ratings have slipped, he says.
For Schultz, core concerns among the US electorate are grocery and gas prices, housing, and the cost of health care.
Other than immigration and tariffs – which have contributed to the overall affordability problem – another important issue for the electorate is the war against Iran.
The so-called war of choice – now in its eighth month – remains unpopular among voters. Polls show only 29 percent approving of Trump’s handling and 65 percent disapproving.
What distinguishes 2026 from past midterms is that a “small set of issues is nearly inseparable from President Trump himself”, Schultz notes.
“The election, therefore, functions as a referendum on a person more than a contest between issue platforms,” he says.
“Because Democrats have not offered a clear alternative economic message, affordability may produce disengagement as often as it produces Democratic votes,” he adds.
The wild cards
Several conditions can possibly allow Republicans to limit losses or retain at least one chamber of Congress, experts say.
Zogby identifies Democratic vulnerabilities as a major wild card.
“Voter trust for the Democrats is at the lowest point ever,” he says.
Overall, the Democratic Party has a 26 percent positive rating, which includes about 65 percent of Democratic voters – down from 85 percent who trusted their own party in November 2024, Zogby says.
“Democrats also lack an agenda going forward. Those that do have an agenda for action are the progressive wing, and even moderate Democrats are attacking them for being too radical,” he says.
This leaves open the possibility of “last-minute revulsion” by late-deciding voters, he says.
Trump himself remains a wild card who has “rewritten the rule book many times”, he adds.
Schultz outlines a number of factors that can possibly affect the midterm outcomes.
One, partisan loyalty can outlast disappointment with the president, he says.
Many unhappy Republicans will still support their candidate for Congress when they think the alternative offers no clear programme.
Two, the “Democratic brand” imposes a ceiling: only about 21 percent of voters approve of Democrats in Congress, but more than three-fourths of Democratic voters describe their vote primarily as “opposition to Trump”, he says.
Three, a change in the news, such as a durable settlement of the Iran war, falling gas prices, or easing inflation, can improve Trump’s standing by a few points in key places, Schultz says.
Schultz also points to the structure of the Senate. It favours Republicans, while Democrats must defend all their seats and gain a net four, several of them in states Trump carried comfortably.
Finally, polling and turnout error can be consequential if low-propensity voters who dislike Trump decide to stay home on the day of the election.
“Taken together, my judgement is that Republicans are far better positioned to hold the Senate than the House,” he says, adding that maintaining the majority in the House would require a combination of strong Democratic abstention and durable Republican loyalty – something the current polling does not show.
