Noureldein GhanemWashington, DC — Every World Cup produces at least one or two teams that arrive outside the circle of favourites and leave with the tournament's biggest story.
For example, in the last four World Cups and earlier editions, lesser-known or underestimated teams unexpectedly defeated favourites to progress, causing major upsets.
In the 2010 World Cup, played in South Africa, the Asamoah Gyan-inspired Ghana reached the quarter-finals. The Black Stars became the first African side to reach the last eight on home soil but ultimately lost on penalties to Uruguay after Luis Suarez’s infamous handball.
The 2014 World Cup in Brazil saw Costa Rica reach the quarter-finals. Considered outsiders in a "group of death" alongside Italy, England and Uruguay, they topped their group undefeated and defeated Greece before losing to the Netherlands in a penalty shootout.
Similarly, in 2018, Croatia finished as runners-up in the tournament held in Russia. Their run to the final included a penalty shootout win over Russia and a dramatic semi-final victory over England, before they were defeated 4-2 by France in a hard-fought final.
At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Morocco reached the semi-finals, becoming the first African team to do so. They topped a group containing Belgium and Croatia, and subsequently eliminated Spain and Portugal before losing to France.
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup being co-hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico, the debate over potential dark horses has become one of the tournament's most intriguing subplots.
With the field expanded to 48 teams and an additional knockout round, analysts suggest the structure could enable well-organised teams to progress further in the tournament.
However, when discussing potential dark horses, a few more things aside from the quality of the squads need to be considered.
Ali Maher Helmy, a football journalist and pundit, tells TRT World that the groups of these potential dark horses and their possible pathways in the knockout stage are as critical as the quality of their squads.
Helmy says Türkiye and even Algeria could stage an upset and become this World Cup's dark horses. Other experts, such as Tom Matson, features editor at GOAL, argue that Colombia could have a good run, while football writer Amee Ruszkai tips Switzerland as the dark horse. Other pundits suggested Ecuador could become a potential dark horse.
The 48-team 2026 format could through even more surprises.
TRT World has spotlighted the teams with the strongest chances of winning the World Cup. Here are the dark horse sides expected to throw up major surprises throughout the tournament.
Türkiye
Türkiye are one of the teams with the strongest prospect of making a deep run in the tournament.
Türkiye are in Group D, which includes host nation USA, Australia and Paraguay.
The Crescent Stars have young talents and veterans who can carry them far in the tournament. Analysts say this generation is more talented than the 2002 semi-finalists.
Their top names are Real Madrid's Arda Guler, Juventus' Kenan Yildiz, and Inter Milan's Hakan Calhanoglu.
Assuming Türkiye top their group, they will face the third-placed team of Group B (Canada, Bosnia, Qatar and Switzerland), Group E (Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast and Ecuador), Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia), Group I (France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq), or Group J (Argentina, Jordan, Algeria and Austria) in the Round of 32.
If they end up as runners-up, they will face the runners-up from Group G (Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand and Iran) in the Round of 32.
The possibility of Türkiye avoiding one of the World Cup favourites in the Round of 32 is high, which could give them the chance to go far in the tournament.
Norway
Norway’s team is also considered a dark horse in the tournament.
Norway's star players are Manchester City's Erling Haaland and Arsenal's Martin Odegaard. But another key player is RB Leipzig's winger Antonio Nusa.
If Norway top Group I, they will face the third-placed team of Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Haiti and Scotland), Group D (USA, Australia, Paraguay and Türkiye), Group F, Group G, or Group H (Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay).
If they end up as runners-up, they will face the runners-up from Group E.
Morocco
After an illustrious run in the 2022 World Cup, during which they reached the semi-finals, most pundits are counting the Lions of Atlas as a potential dark horse in the 2026 again.
In January, Morocco also reached the AFCON final match, which they lost to Senegal 1-0. In March, Confederation of African Football overturned Senegal's on-field victory and awarded Morocco a 3-0 win, ruling that Senegal violated tournament regulations by leaving the pitch during the match.
Morocco's star players are PSG's Achraf Hakimi, arguably Africa's current best player, and Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz.
If the Lions of Atlas top Group C, they will face the runners-up from Group F. If they end up as runners-up, it will be the other way around, and they will face the winner of Group F.
Japan
Although Japan are in a relatively tough group (Group F), many pundits are tipping them as one of the potential dark horses.
The Samurai Warriors have a balanced squad and talented players who could capitalise on the smallest of chances.
Japan's star player is Real Sociedad's Takefusa Kubo, who plays as a winger on the right flank.
Kubo, often dubbed "Japanese Messi", is a skilled winger with a unique sense of timing and exploitation of small spaces and openings.
Another player is Bayern Munich's defender Hiroki Ito.
If they win their group, they will face the runners-up from Group C, and if they secure second place, they will face the winners of Group C.
Algeria
Algeria aren't necessarily discussed among potential dark horses in the 2026 edition; however, Helmy makes an argument for the Desert Warriors.
"The (Algerian) team has young players, a balanced and well-organised squad. They excluded Baghdad Bounedjah and other old players. They changed the head coach, their new Swiss coach (Vladimir Petkovic) has great experience in the World Cup," Helmy says.
"They have Argentina, Jordan and Austria in their group. I think they could beat Austria and Jordan… Algeria are one of the teams that will reach the Round of 32, and not as one of the best third-placed teams… I think they will qualify as the runners-up."
In their latest friendlies, Algeria beat Guatemala 7-0, drew 0-0 with Uruguay and beat the Netherlands — one of the World Cup favourites — 1-0.
Algeria's main man is captain Riyadh Mahrez, the 2016 PFA Player of the Year. Their goalkeeper is Luca Zidane, the son of France's greatest player, Zinedine Zidane.
A player to keep an eye on is Ibrahim Maza, the 20-year-old Bayer Leverkusen's attacking midfielder.
If Algeria win Group J, they will face the runners-up from Group H, and if they end up as runners-up, they will face the winners of Group H.
