Yasin BasOn July 7 and 8, the heads of state and government of the world's most important defence alliance will meet in the Turkish capital, Ankara, to discuss the future of NATO and the Euro-Atlantic security architecture.
German-European-Turkish relations have experienced numerous highs and lows in recent years.
For years, a reserved attitude in Germany and Europe characterised the relationship.
This was evident in the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s "one-minute" speech in Davos, the position of European partners after the failed coup attempt of July 15, the so-called "Armenian Resolution" in the Bundestag, the withdrawal of German troops from the İncirlik military base, and Euro-Atlantic arms embargoes: all of these marked a low point in relations with the West.
Those who supported Erdogan or acknowledged Türkiye’s successes sometimes faced exclusion or even denunciation.
In a rapidly changing world, relying on old patterns is no longer sufficient. The US is withdrawing from Europe.
NATO is searching for new balances of power. Energy supplies, especially in Europe, have become more fragile. Germany faces the question of reliable partners in a multipolar world.
In this context, Türkiye comes into focus: a NATO member with the alliance's second-largest army, it has undergone a remarkable strategic, economic, and technological transformation over the past two decades.
Its geographical location also makes it a natural energy hub and logistics centre.
Türkiye on its path to becoming an arms power
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte summed it up perfectly after his visit to Ankara at the end of April: "We can learn a lot from what Türkiye is doing here."
The message was clear: Without Türkiye, Europe's security architecture will not function fully in the long run.
The Turkish defence industry has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past two decades: Exports rose from $248 million in 2002 to $10 billion last year.
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Türkiye has gone from being an arms importer to the world's eleventh-largest arms exporter.
Turkish arms exports increased by a staggering 122 percent between 2021 and 2025 alone, compared with the previous five years.
Furthermore, what was showcased at the SAHA Expo 2026 arms fair in Istanbul in May caught the attention of military experts worldwide: the Yildirimhan intercontinental ballistic missile, the KAAN hypersonic fighter jet, the Baykar drone fleet, and the TCG Anadolu amphibious assault ship.
The list of technological breakthroughs is impressive.
The German government is also reportedly considering acquiring the Turkish Yildirimhan intercontinental ballistic missile – with a range of up to 6,000 kilometres – and the Tayfun Block-4 hypersonic missile.
For European standards, this is a remarkable development. Unthinkable just a few years ago, it signals that strategic reasoning is slowly gaining ground.
Türkiye is no longer just a consumer of technology but increasingly a producer and partner. This opens up new possibilities: joint arms projects, technology transfer, and closer military cooperation within NATO.
The international order is undergoing profound change.
The gradual reduction of the US military presence in Europe, a process that has been unfolding for years and is now gaining momentum, is causing growing concern across the continent.
Approximately 35,000 US troops are currently stationed in Germany, with more than 5,000 scheduled for withdrawal in the coming months.
NATO anticipates further withdrawals. US General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's top commander in Europe, described it as an "ongoing process spanning several years" and stated that deploying intermediate-range missiles to Germany is off the table.
It was recently revealed that the US will further reduce its military presence in Europe. According to the "New York Times," the number of fighter jets is to be reduced by a third. In addition, the withdrawal of a submarine and an aircraft carrier is reportedly planned.
This will further intensify NATO's focus on its southern neighbourhood, according to a recent analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Few countries are as present in the current crisis zones as Türkiye.
It mediates between Russia and Ukraine, facilitated the grain agreement, and organised prisoner exchanges, among other things. It is an anchor of stability, from the Caucasus to the Mediterranean.
Even on the African continent, Turkish peacekeeping missions are noticed. Türkiye also distinguished itself as a discreet mediator behind the scenes, helping to end the war between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Developments in the Middle East directly affect Europe: energy prices, migration, and security risks.
Anyone who wants to promote peace in this region can no longer ignore Ankara. Martin Erdmann, former German ambassador to Ankara, states that the Turkish president and his country have made themselves "indispensable as NATO partners" and declares Erdoğan one of the few winners of the world's multiple crises.
"Türkiye is a firewall for Europe against the demands of an unstable region," the diplomat told the news magazine "Der Spiegel".
The Turks are proving themselves to be masterful strategic balancers: they are the only Western country to refuse sanctions against Russia while keeping channels of communication open, and to supply weapons to Ukraine.
Türkiye is a NATO member, an EU candidate country, and a partner in the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Türkiye’s diplomatic successes have not gone unnoticed.
Numerous heads of state and government have thanked President Erdogan for mediating ceasefires in Gaza and the Iran-Iraq War.
At the same time, Ankara is further expanding its influence in Africa and Central Asia. Former ambassador Erdmann draws a clear conclusion from this: if NATO wants to remain relevant as a geopolitical actor, there is no way around Türkiye.
New opportunities in the energy partnership
Türkiye’s significance, however, extends beyond common security and defence policy.
Numerous pipelines supply Europe with gas from diverse regions of the world via Türkiye, reducing its dependence on Russia.
Its geographical location between the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East makes the country a natural hub for energy, trade, and security.
A recent example of this key role is Ankara's proposal to NATO: Türkiye is offering to build a military fuel pipeline from its territory through Bulgaria to Romania.
The remarkable aspect of this proposal is that the Turkish route would be approximately five times cheaper than alternative routes.
Just a few days ago, German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche (CDU) travelled to Ankara with a 30-member delegation on her first official trip to the Turkish capital.
Her message: "Türkiye is not only a reliable partner. It is clearly focused on growth in the energy sector."
Furthermore, the Republic of Türkiye is becoming increasingly important to Germany not only for diversifying its gas and electricity supply but also for modern trade and industrial policy.
During her visit, Reiche emphasised that Türkiye is not only an important NATO ally but also a key partner for Europe's gas and energy supply.
The country on the Bosporus plans to invest around €80 billion in renewable energy and €28 billion in energy infrastructure by 2035.
The development towards a "European NATO" is unstoppable. The US is reducing its presence, leaving a gap that Europe can only fill with difficulty.
But the open flank Washington leaves behind is enormous. A European-dominated NATO is not a given.
It needs technological sovereignty, political will, and above all, reliable allies. Türkiye has the potential to be one of these partners, not only because of its military but also because of its geopolitical position and its growing defence industry.
The global situation has changed fundamentally since the last NATO summit in Türkiye 22 years ago. Ankara's strategic importance for European security is greater than ever.
The summit will primarily focus on integrating Türkiye more closely into the support effort for Ukraine against Russia.
However, the conditions for closer cooperation cannot be created solely in Ankara. Europe must overcome its old reservations and recognise its Turkish partner for what it is: an indispensable pillar of Euro-Atlantic security.
German-Turkish and European-Turkish relations are ripe for a new beginning: on equal footing, with mutual interest and the understanding that all sides can benefit equally. Europe needs Türkiye, and Türkiye needs Europe.
If closer integration succeeds, it could not only strengthen NATO but also place relations on a new footing.
The NATO summit in Ankara could mark the beginning of a new era or the next missed opportunity. It would be a mistake to let this chance slip by.
This article was first published on TRT DEUTSCHE
