Will Trump's narrow escape swing the US elections decisively in his favour?

Seconds after a bullet grazed his head, Donald Trump stood up, his face tough and stained with blood from his right ear. Waving his fist in the air, he repeatedly screamed "fight!" to a horrified crowd of supporters, while agents surrounded him and dragged him off the stage.

This scene captured one of the most iconic moments in modern American history, potentially shaping the nation's political trajectory for years to come.

Ronald Reagan, the 40th President of the United States, was shot five inches below his left armpit in an assassination attempt in March 1981.

Insisting on walking into the hospital himself, Reagan collapsed just seconds before reaching the hospital’s emergency entrance, creating another iconic moment in the country’s political history.

Both American presidents aimed to project strength immediately after narrowly escaping death.

As Reagan's message was clearly received by the public, it raises the question today: can Trump experience a similar fate, finding victory after being victimised?

Bolder, braver, more populist

Ronald Reagan, a Republican like Trump, was shot just 70 days into his first term as president.

When he returned to the Capitol about a month later, newly-recovered, to promote his new economic recovery act, he was greeted with a three-minute standing ovation.

After the assassination attempt, Reagan's approval ratings increased, giving him strong support for his legislative agenda and helping him to be reelected.

He had won his first election in 1980 by a narrow popular margin of 50.7 percent, securing victory in 44 states. But three years after the shooting in 1984, he achieved a much bigger win, claiming 49 states and 59 percent of the vote.

Experts suggest that iconic moments like the shooting of a president can significantly boost popular votes. For the Trump campaign, which has embraced a populist approach so far, this could be a time to relax and capitalise on the good fortune that this injury brings.

One reason the shooting could boost Trump's standing is that people often feel a sense of sympathy for the person attacked, said Christopher Phelps, a historian of modern American political and intellectual life.

Trump's raised fist also helps.

"The image of a defiant Donald Trump in front of a waving American flag, fist raised into the air with lines of blood dripping from his face will become an iconic picture not only for the 2024 US Presidential Election but will go down in political history as a powerful striking image," Christopher Pich, professor at University of Nottingham, told TRT World.

The marketing professor added that the fact that this image of Trump has already gone viral, "even printed on T-shirts, coffee mugs and posters," will lead to "Trump's defiant yet personal fightback shaping the upcoming election campaign."

Todd Landman, Rights Lab Research Director and Professor of Political Science, agreed that Trump's initial response in the wake of the attack will be another key factor in his potential comeback.

"The event and its iconic photos may swing undecided voters in Trump’s direction, since he appeared undaunted by the attack, engaged in a conciliatory conversation with President (Joe) Biden, and redrafted his speech and strategy for the upcoming Republican National Convention," Landman told TRT World.

His appearance as the official Republican nominee at the convention just two days after being shot projected a triumphant and defiant image, Pich added.

"He wants to be seen as a fighter and getting on with the job and that nothing will hold him back. He wants to be seen as bold, brave, energised and the candidate that can unite a polarised nation."

However, even a "bold" or "brave" enough candidate may not be able to overcome the deep divisions of an already polarised American society.

Will polarisation ever end?

Political and ideological polarisation in modern US society has been developing for a long time.

A 2014 Research indicated that partisan animosity in the country has grown significantly from 1944 to 2014.

In both parties, the proportion of people with a highly negative view of the opposing party has more than doubled, and most of these intense partisans believe the opposing party's policies are so misguided that "they endanger the nation's well-being."

A more recent analysis found that, on average, Democrats and Republicans were more ideologically divided in 2022 than at any time in the last half century.

Despite President Biden condemning political violence upon the attack and urging Americans to "recommit to resolving their differences peacefully," the shooting unfolded amid highly divisive rhetoric from both parties.

While Biden's central campaign message has long been that Trump is "an existential threat to democracy," Trump has previously referred to Biden and his party with insulting nicknames, like "Crooked Joe," "Radical Left," "Sleepy Joe," "out of control," and "a disaster."

This incident could lead to a genuine calm as both sides are currently at odds, or it might easily fuel an "eye for an eye" mentality.

Trump, who has been facing multiple federal cases and has alleged that his enemies are trying to lock him up and disqualify him from the election, can now assert that they've attempted to kill him.

July 13 could become a new "January 6," a date Democrats often blame Republicans for inciting violence at the Capitol, giving Republicans a similar opportunity to respond.

Landman said he expects the incident to drive political polarisation, as leading figures from both parties have already sought to use the attack as a means to blame one another.

While the motives and forces behind the attack remain unknown, the incident "fomented a flurry of conspiracy theories," Landman told TRT World.

Trump shouting "fight, fight" while his fist is in the air could be "interpreted by some of his supporters to exact revenge of some kind," he said.

Phelps meanwhile said he is concerned that there will be real attempts to reconstruct the US political landscape constructively moving forward.

"The wide policy differences between the parties will most likely soon see divisions sharpen again."