As Syria plans its next chapter, UNSCR 2254 provides a framework for peace

Nine years ago, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted Resolution 2254. This called for a Syrian-led and UN-facilitated political process to establish an inclusive government and new constitution in the war-torn country.

UNSCR 2254 differed from previous Syrian crisis-related UN resolutions that came before it, as those had only addressed specific issues such as chemical weapons and humanitarian disasters.

Passed in December 2015, this resolution constituted the first instrument that sought to propose a political solution to the Syrian conflict via organs of international law.

As soon as the resolution passed, ousted President Bashar al Assad's government and his foreign and domestic allies intensified their military campaign, aiming to strengthen the Damascus regime's power in order to secure greater leverage going into any talks with opposition groups.

In light of the recent fall of Assad, marking the end of his family's 54-year-rule of Syria, which is nothing short of a generational turning point for the Arab world, it is necessary to look at UNSCR 2254 in a new light.

In some ways, the resolution is outdated, said Nader Hashemi, director of Georgetown University's Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding.

The resolution was "premised on a situation where the Assad regime was still in power and the opposition was weak, and aspiring to be included in some sort of a power sharing agreement—that's now yesterday's news so to speak,” he tells TRT World.

"It was written during a very different political moment and as of (December 8) we are in a new phase of Syria's history," he adds.

Still relevant despite the dramatic changes on the ground in Syria, with Assad exiled in Moscow and his government ousted, UNSCR 2254 remains relevant to Syria's future.

It offers a "very relevant framework that could guide the conversation for an inclusive political process within the groups that have opposed the Assad regime for the last 14 years," Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, tells TRT World.

Adding that the resolution is "definitely worth investing in," he noted however that aspects of its framework, chiefly the parts which discuss inclusion of the regime and the opposition, will require changes.

Imad Harb, director of Research and Analysis at Arab Center Washington, DC, also sees this resolution as still highly relevant, even in the post-Assad chapter of Syria's history.

"It contains a blueprint of whatever transition there takes place to a democratic political system in Syria. But now that the Assad regime is no longer in power, a transition does not have to respect the wishes of the sitting president or his autocratic political setup," he tells TRT.

Major obstacles remain

Although experts believe that UNSCR 2254 will remain important to future developments in Syria following the Assad regime's demise, there are many stumbling blocks with respect to application.

This includes the "new reality" on the ground in Syria, says Idlbi. From an implementation standpoint, "a lot of attention and effort from the international community to adjust the framework" will be necessary.

He has concerns about the UN, United States, and various actors in the Middle East possibly not stepping up to the plate and falling short when it comes to holding the "intense diplomatic efforts" which are currently required.

"What I'm worried about is that, especially for the United States, (President Joe) Biden's administration has largely divested from diplomatic efforts in the region. I think the impact of that was really clear during the talks about the war in Gaza, same about the ceasefire in Lebanon," he says.

"So, unless the Biden administration, and then after that in (42) days (Donald Trump's) administration, takes these issues seriously and invests diplomatically in the situation, I think we will face a lot of issues coming from regional disagreements over the outcome, regional actors trying to settle differences where they can in Syria, where there are power vacuums, which might lead to infighting within Syria itself," he adds.

In Harb's opinion, a dearth of trust between the different groups in Syria that just overthrew the Assad regime threatens to dim the prospects for a successful implementation of UNSCR 2254. Questions include how the Syrian population perceives Hayat Tahrir al Sham.

"Important is the trust that the Syrian people put into the promises of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham which until recently was considered a dangerous Islamist jihadist outfit uninterested in a pluralist political system in Syria. What is important now is an inclusive political system that reflects the wishes of all segments of Syrian society," Harb says.

International support

Looking ahead, it is unclear what role UNSCR 2254 will end up playing in Syria as the country begins this new era.

Yet, there is clearly support from governments worldwide for this resolution. While meeting in Qatar at the Doha Forum on December 7, Iran, Türkiye, and Russia, which in 2017 set up a trilateral forum, formally known as the "Astana Format," with the goal of ending the Syrian conflict and starting a political negotiations process under their auspices—along with five Arab states—Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—issued a statement calling for a halt to military operations, protection of civilians, and the initiation of a political process in Syria in line with the UNSC resolution passed in late 2015.

While calling UNSCR 2254 a "very flexible framework that could be adaptable to the situation that we have today," Idlbi tells TRT World that much will come down to the extent to which the international community invests diplomatically in creating and shaping this framework.

"We have a once in a lifetime opportunity to push things in the region in a positive direction. I think there needs to be more investment and more focus on that opportunity," he concludes.