Capture of Aleppo and beyond: A primer on what’s happening in Syria

Armed groups opposed to Syrian regime leader Bashar al-Assad have captured large swathes of territory in the country’s northwest, opening a new front in the Middle East already reeling from Israel’s war on Gaza and elsewhere.

The lightning-fast joint opposition attack by several armed formations – including the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a leading group in Idlib in northwestern Syria - took the regime forces by surprise and ultimately led to the fall of Aleppo.

The capture of Aleppo by the anti-Assad groups is being seen as a symbolic victory as the ancient city – also Syria’s most populous – saw one of the most protracted battles for its control in the early stages of the Syrian civil war, which has killed more than 500,000 people and displaced more than 10 million since 2011.

“The coming days and weeks will determine Syria’s future for the next two decades: either the country will prosper with a free people, or we will remain trapped in a cycle of oppression, violence, and persecution,” says Omar Alhariri, a Daraa-based Syrian journalist.

Terming the joint opposition offensive “a new resurgence of the revolution” which “has risen from the ashes with even greater strength”, Alhariri tells TRT World.

Why Hama matters

After Aleppo, the opposition also claimed Syria’s fourth-largest city Hama, a city which has seen numerous rebellions against the Assad family since the 1960s. Despite this legacy, the regime was able to keep Hama against opposition forces in early stages of the civil war. As a result, Hama’s recent capture is quite symbolic for anti-regime forces.

There are ongoing battles in western Syria while the opposition continues to advance, “driven by the momentum of its victories in Aleppo and the fear that has taken hold of the regime elements”, according to the Syrian journalist.

Alhariri emphasises the strategic and psychological importance of Hama, whose capture “will open up direct routes to the eastern desert and provide rapid access to Homs and central Syria.”

“Hama is one of the revolution's heartlands, with a strong revolutionary presence within the city. Its capture holds immense military, geographical, and psychological significance. The battle for Hama is crucial,” he adds.

“I’m not overstating when I say that taking Hama is even more important than capturing Aleppo itself.”

Assad forces have “crumbled” in the face of the opposition attack because they are not well-organised, says Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst on armed groups at the American think tank International Crisis Group.

“We don’t speak about a real army. We speak about many different militias, some of which are trained and backed by Iran without a real internal organisation,” he says, referring to Assad’s army, which includes various Shia groups from Iraq, Lebanon and even Afghanistan. Hezbollah is among them, he adds.

On the other hand, prior to their late November attack, opposition armed groups “totally restructured their forces, improving their training and professionalism, which has made them like a state army,” says Drevon.

This explains why they were “so successful and so fast,” the analyst adds.

Under current circumstances, it’s not possible that Assad forces can get back Aleppo or Hama even though they receive financial and military support from its allies like Russia and Iran, according to Drevon.

“So the frontlines are likely to remain, at least in the newly-liberated areas,” he says.

The opposition's success has also been due to military and political troubles Assad’s main sponsors face across different fronts, says Alhariri.

Hezbollah’s recent losses in Lebanon in its conflict with Israel have left the group incapacitated to help the Assad regime as it did between 2012 and 2016, according to Alhariri.

Unlike the 2012-2016 period, when Iran was able to mobilise different militias, “the situation for Iran is now very different,” says Droven, referring to increasing tensions between Tehran and Washington and the unpredictability of the upcoming Trump administration.

Similarly, Russia has diverted some of its forces from Syria to its Ukraine front, Alhariri says.

“It may not have anticipated a conflict of this scale and now seems hesitant to reinvest in supporting a regime that is evidently very weak.”

What about south Syria?

Southern Syria is also crucial for the future of the war-ravaged country’s political direction.

Alhariri believes that “there is widespread anticipation and readiness for a powerful mobilisation” to support the north’s uprising against the Assad regime.

“The challenge, however, is that the forces and resources in the south are currently too weak to mount a significant offensive,” he adds.

“External support is crucial, particularly from Jordan. If Jordan were to open its borders and allow the flow of military and medical supplies, southern Syria could quickly push the regime’s forces back toward Damascus.”