Ceasefire deal brings respite to Palestinians, but for how long?

After nearly a year and a half of Israeli bombardment, forced starvation and death, Palestinians in Gaza will finally get a reprieve.

A ceasefire agreement has been reached between Hamas and Israel following negotiations mediated in Qatar's capital Doha. The deal, announced Wednesday, is set to take effect on Sunday, January 19, according to Qatar's Prime Minister.

It marks a pivotal moment in Israel's war on Gaza, which has devastated the enclave and left at least 46,000 Palestinians dead and more than 110,000 wounded.

Ceasefire talks mediated by Qatar, along with the US and Egypt, have been finalised at advanced stages in Doha.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and outgoing United States President Joe Biden held a phone call on Sunday, discussing the latest developments, with Biden reiterating that the time for an agreement is now.

In a speech on Wednesday, Biden credited "dogged and painstaking American diplomacy" for the deal, adding that he put forward "the precise contours" of the plan in May 2023.

However incoming US President Donald Trump also took credit for the agreement, saying on Truth Social, "We have achieved so much without even being in the White House."

Skepticism abounds

Experts are cautious about whether the ceasefire will bring lasting peace.

Mustafa Caner, an assistant professor at Sakarya University in Türkiye, tells TRT World that this would depend on whether negotiation terms are honoured by both sides.

"Since the ceasefire outlines a phased resolution plan, essentially a peace plan, the successful completion of each phase and progression to the next will determine the likelihood of achieving lasting peace," Caner says.

Beyond the negotiations themselves, regional geopolitics will also play a critical role. Caner highlights the importance of international involvement, especially the US.

"The expected ceasefire has been made possible primarily due to pressure from (incoming US President Donald) Trump's administration, especially through the involvement of (Mideast envoy) Steve Witkoff in the negotiations."

The Netanyahu administration had previously rejected several ceasefire deals, including Biden's ceasefire proposal last July, and was accused of sabotaging the talks while using them to buy time for Israel's war on Gaza.

Speaking to TRT World, Mahmoud Alrantisi from Istanbul Medipol University shares a critical view on the political dynamics surrounding the ceasefire: "Netanyahu's primary stance is political survival, which has led him to reject agreements and obstruct progress. If an agreement were to be reached, there is a risk that the government could fall and the events of October 7 could be held accountable."

He adds that "Under the expected Trump administration, Trump's pressure weakened Netanyahu, and for about 1.5 years, Netanyahu has been unable to block as effectively as before."

Israel has continued its war in defiance of the United Nations' repeated calls for a ceasefire, and an investigation of alleged genocide in Gaza by the International Court of Justice.

What to expect?

The deal initiates a 42-day first phase during which Israeli ground forces will begin withdrawing from key areas.

According to sources, the withdrawal from the Netzarim axis will be immediate, while a phased pullout from the Philadelphi corridor is planned to start between 40 and 50 days into the ceasefire.

Under the deal, displaced Palestinians will be permitted to return to their homes starting the seventh day of the truce.

Returnees on foot will not face searches, but vehicles will undergo inspections with advanced X-ray technology managed by Egyptian-Qatari companies and monitored by multiple parties, including Israel, to prevent the transport of weapons.

However, Caner warns that Israel's continued military presence during this phase could justify renewed attacks at any moment.

"If we take into account the numerous violations of ceasefires by Israel in the past, particularly since November 27 in Lebanon, I frankly do not consider Israel's complete withdrawal from Gaza after the 42-day period to be a highly probable development. I hope to be proved wrong," he says.

A significant aspect of the agreement involves a prisoner exchange.

Hamas will release 33 hostages during the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, after which Israel will begin pulling back its forces from populated areas in Gaza.

Hamas has committed to releasing women, children, and elderly detainees in exchange for 1,000 Palestinian prisoners arrested during the current war, provided they were not involved in the October 7, 2023, attacks.

Additionally, 250 Palestinian prisoners serving long-term sentences will be freed in the initial phase.

This, Caner suggests, is a key dynamic shaping the truce's future.

"The release of hostages will undoubtedly appease the Israeli side and increase public pressure for the next phase. On the other hand, the release of Palestinian prisoners will encourage and motivate the Palestinian side to be willing and cooperative for the subsequent stage," he says.

Rafah border to open

Egypt will also open the Rafah border crossing to receive Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners under the ceasefire.

Sick and humanitarian cases will be allowed to exit Gaza for treatment through the border, with safe passage guaranteed and no targeting or arrests by Israeli forces.

Israeli forces will maintain a presence in the border perimeter, up to 700 metres in some areas, particularly in northern Gaza.

After 42 days, preparations will begin for the second phase of negotiations, which aim for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. However, political tensions in Israel remain high, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urging far-right partner Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to join him in quitting the government if the hostage deal is approved.

According to Alrantisi, "the situation remains very complex. Since October 7, some effects have not fully manifested for Israel. At the same time, it remains unclear how the political landscape in Palestine will evolve after the war. Israel does not want to withdraw from Gaza, especially from the Rafah border, and it seems likely to stay in the region to prevent a recurrence of October 7."

Alrantisi adds that in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, the release of certain imprisoned key figures, such as Ibrahim Hamid, a senior Hamas leader, and Abdullah Darwousi, a member of Fatah, "could become game-changers in domestic politics for both factions."

Hamid's release could strengthen Hamas's position, while Darwousi's return could alter the balance within Fatah, influencing their approaches to peace talks and negotiations.

However, Alrantisi adds that “Israel's primary goal is to secure the release of its 34 prisoners before resuming the war. At this stage, mediators could exert influence to stop Israel by pressuring the Netanyahu government and adopting a unified stance.”

Israel is not accepting either Hamas or Fatah rule in Gaza and is likely to continue attacks on the occupied West Bank as well, Alrantisi says.

In November, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the coastal Palestinian enclave.