Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Presidential candidate of Türkiye's People’s Alliance

Türkiye is heading towards an election cycle in mid-May when the political acumen of 69-year-old Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be challenged by the joint-opposition alliance’s presidential candidate.

Since being elected as the mayor of Istanbul in 1994, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not lost a single election against any opponent and has, throughout his career, only lost twice — during his first two campaigns — in the 1980s.

On May 14, when both presidential and parliamentary elections will be held, Recep Tayyip Erdogan — who won the previous two presidential elections in 2014 and 2018 — seeks to be elected as the president of the Republic of Türkiye for another term, backed by the People's Alliance, a political coalition of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), BBP, Yeniden Refah Party and HUDA PAR.

The rise of AK Party and Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political vision

Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his supporters founded the AK Party based on a conservative democratic position in 2001, and the following year, the party claimed a parliamentary majority in an unexpected sweeping victory against Türkiye's traditional centre-right and centre-left parties, paving the way for a new political model under Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership.

In 2002, few analysts imagined that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK Party would claim back-to-back victories, let alone gain enough political strength to change the country's parliamentary system to a presidential model in a critical referendum in April 2017. However, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has, from day one, relentlessly pursued his political objectives, creating a country that can invest across the African continent and play a high-stakes role in different conflicts from Ukraine to Azerbaijan, Libya, and Syria, significantly improving Türkiye's defence and energy sectors.

Unlike many Western political leaders who owe their rise in ranks to elite-centric democratic political structures, Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes from humble origins. He belonged to Türkiye's periphery, where frustrations over the suppression of religiosity and conservatism under the Kemalist establishment's strict secularist practices have long been pervasive.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan's father hailed from Guneysu, a mountainous district in the Black Sea province of Rize, where he served as a captain in the Turkish Coast Guard. Recep Tayyip Erdogan was born and raised in Istanbul's working-class Kasimpasa district.

Located in Istanbul’s Golden Horn (Halic), Kasimpasa has long been a colourful district. Recep Tayyip Erdogan sold lemonade and simits on the street, gaining a deep understanding of the quotidian experience of the ordinary Turkish citizen and engaging in suburban life, where conservative and nationalist sentiments mixed with a nostalgia for the country’s illustrious Ottoman past.

At a young age, Recep Tayyip Erdogan became interested in both football and politics. He came close to playing for Fenerbahce, a leading Istanbul-based football club, but his father opposed his son’s sporting ambitions; as a result, Recep Tayyip Erdogan chose a career in politics.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan graduated in 1981 from Business Administration at the Istanbul Academy of Economics and Commercial Science, which was later named Marmara University's Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences.

The role of Milli Gorus Movement on Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political thinking

Recep Tayyip Erdogan joined the Milli Gorus (National Vision) movement, which had, for the most part, been established by Necmettin Erbakan, a successful Turkish engineer with strong religious convictions. Erbakan and his friends founded the National Salvation Party (MSP) in 1972 as the political wing of Milli Gorus.

The Milli Gorus movement’s political agenda was based on the belief that, as a Muslim-majority country, Türkiye could, through an economic development strategy founded upon the conservative spirit of Anatolian entrepreneurship, become a major power without compromising its core Islamic values.

In 1976, Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the National Salvation Party’s youth branch leader of the Beyoglu district, which, at the time, included his own Kasimpasa neighbourhood. Not long after, he became the head of the party’s Istanbul youth branch.

Following the brutal 1980 military coup that seized Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to follow Erbakan’s path, becoming chair of the Istanbul branch of the newly established Welfare Party in 1985. After two unsuccessful attempts at becoming the mayor of Beyoglu and a Welfare Party MP for Istanbul, he finally reached a critical point in his political career in 1994.

Mayor of Istanbul vis-a-vis the military-led establishment

When Recep Tayyip Erdogan ran for office in local Istanbul metropolitan municipality elections against high-profile centre-right and centre-left candidates, most candidates discounted his bid as a lost cause, deeming that there was no way a Welfare Party (RP) candidate could win. He was even neglected by a number of top talk-show hosts, who declined to invite him onto their programmes, believing that he had no chance.

But on the morning of March 27, he emerged as the victorious candidate to the shock of the country’s military-led establishment, which saw the Welfare Party (RP) as an ideological threat to their radical interpretation of secularism, which even banned headscarves in universities at the time.

He demonstrated his skills during his mayoral tenure, fixing a number of the city’s major problems, including its infamous water cuts, transportation inadequacies, increasing pollution and waste management issue, which had caused a methane explosion in the Umraniye district on the Asian side of Istanbul in 1993 under the previous leftist mayor. He also led a successful project to clean the Golden Horn, whose waters border his beloved Kasimpasa neighbourhood.

Laicism in Türkiye and the conviction of Recep Tayyip Erdogan

But for the radical secularist establishment inspired by French laicism, which advocated for the state’s rule over religious sentiments, as opposed to Anglo-Saxon secularism, which defended a moderate separation of religion and state, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s municipality successes did not matter much.

In 1999, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was sentenced to five months in prison due to his recitation of a poem written by the nationalist writer, Ziya Gokalp, whose ideas were a great inspiration for Türkiye’s founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The controversial sentence also led to a political ban, forcing Recep Tayyip Erdogan to leave his mayoral position.

While the sentence came as a great shock both to the conservative masses and to many Istanbulites, who saw their quality of life significantly improved under Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership, it led to a reawakening of Türkiye's future leader.

In 2013, as the country’s prime minister, he revisited the Pinarhisar prison, located in Kirklareli, a province in Türkiye’s European region of Thrace, where he had been jailed, saying, “For me, Pinarhisar is a symbol of rebirth, where we prepared the establishment of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party). It was there that we took the first step towards establishing a new and great Türkiye.”

Türkiye’s Leader: Appealing both to centre-right, nationalist and moderate leftist voters

Two years after his release from Pinarhisar, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his like-minded peers, who were called “reformists” — as opposed to the followers of Erbakan’s faction, who were referred to as “traditionalists” — founded the AK Party after a split in the Virtue Party, the successor of the banned Welfare Party.

With the establishment of the AK Party, Erdogan aimed to appeal to both centre-right and nationalist voters, as well as to moderate leftists moving from Erbakan’s core Milli Gorus stance to the political centre. But he continued to respect Erbakan’s struggle until his death, praising his legacy.

Electoral successes: winning the elections 2002, 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2018

2002 general election

In 2002, his new strategy proved to be a great political invention after his party came to power, defeating the country’s traditional parties — and with big margins, taking 362 of 550 seats. During this term, many democratic reforms have been passed under his leadership, allowing Kurdish-language broadcast in public which has been a taboo for a long time.

Since then, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won two general elections to become the country’s prime minister in 2007 and 2011 and two presidential elections in 2014 and 2018 to serve as Türkiye’s president.

From 2002 until today, his party has won three referendums on constitutional changes which included turning the country’s parliamentary system into a presidential model. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party has also claimed a majority in all local elections since 2002, a feat no political party had been able to reach since Türkiye’s move to a multi-party system in 1950.

2007 general election

After 2007 presidential election have been deadlocked due to the claims of Islamic threat to the presidency by main opposition party CHP boycotting the parliamentary process to choose a president, Erdogan called a snap early general election. The majority of the seats, 341 of 550, by 46.58 percent of the votes, were won by the AK Party.

2011 general election

The election in 2011 resulted in the third consecutive victory of the AK Party and the current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected for his third term as prime minister. The AK Party gained 49.8 percent of the votes with 327 MPs.

2014 presidential election

The President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected as 12th President of Türkiye with the absolute majority of the votes. It is the first time, citizens were involved in the election of the president due to the 2007 constitutional referandum introducing direct national vote.

2018 general election and presidential election

The People's Alliances, consisting of the AK Party (42.56 percent) and MHP (11.10 percent) gained 53.6 percent of the votes, totalling 344 of 600 seats in the parliament.

On the same day with general election, the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the candidate of the People's Alliances, has been re-elected as 13th President of Turkish Republic, with 52.59 percent of the votes.

The decreasing intervention of the military and 2016 coup attempt

Under his tenure, the role of Türkiye’s military establishment within the political system has considerably diminished, empowering the civilian government. Prior to Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tenure, the military had, in 1960, 1980 and 1997, ousted a number of democratically elected civilian governments. The latest successful military intervention, called the postmodern coup, overthrew the Erbakan-led government in 1997.

On July 15, 2016, a coup attempt led by the Fethullah Terrorist Organisation (FETO), was successfully defeated following the Turkish president’s call for pro-democratic citizens to fight coup plotters off on the streets.

The coup attempt killed hundreds of civilians and wounded thousands who fought to resist it. Prior to the failed coup attempt, FETO had used illegal means to infiltrate Turkish state institutions, aiming to take control of the country's political system.

The developments in military and defence industries during the political career of the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

During his presidency, the defense capabilities of Turkish state is improved through the integration of technological innovations, indigenously manufactured Bayraktar Akinci combat drones has been delivered to Turkish Armed Forces.

The success of the Akinci drones has been tested in the conflicts in Azerbaijan and Ukraine, attracting the international attention. Not only in international conflicts but also in operations against terrorist organisation PKK and YPG, such as in “Operation Claw-Lock”, it has been found effective.

Also, Türkiye’s first air-to-ground supersonic missiles, IHA-230, manufactured by Baykar, has been test-fired successfully on 4th of April, 2023.

In addition to Bayraktar TB2s, and IHA-230, Hürjet has been developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ). Hürjet is the first indigenous and national supersonic combat aircraft and is a sign of the long-standing commitment to the indigenization of the industries and technology which have been imported, as Defense Industry Executive Committee expressed.

Launch of TCG Anadolu: The development of naval-military power

The creation of sustainable defense industry has been one of the longstanding aims of Turkish state during Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s presidency. Domestically-built warship TCG Anadolu, the world’s first unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) carrier, has been joined to Turkish naval forces on 10th of April, 2023.

Improving naval capabilities and increasing the strike power of Turkish state, it has a capacity to carry helicopters, drones, land vehicles, and warcraft. As Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, "The TCG Anadolu...is the world's first warship in its field where UAVs can land and take off."

Blue Homeland Strategy: Guaranteeing the right to territorial waters

The increasing investment in naval facilities and more active role in Türkiye's territorial waters have been represented through Blue Homeland strategy.

Blue Homeland strategy has been embraced by the political leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which puts special emphasis on the protection of its right to territorial waters and sovereignty claims in its potential maritime jurisdictional area.

Increasing the naval power, and developments in drilling facilities has been important means to realise Blue Homeland doctrine. It defended absolute freedom for the navigation at the Eastern Mediterrenean and Agean Sea, which aims to protect the rights of Turkish Cypriots as well.

Drillings in territorial water and energy security

Sovereignty claims realised through Blue Homeland doctrine, led to use the potential of Turkish waterways as well. To decrease the energy dependency of Turkish state and diversify the energy sources, the investment in drilling in Mediterrenean and Black Sea, and in wind energy and nuclear energy plants have been increased as well during the political leadership of Erdogan.

In this process, Türkiye used its own indigenous means for drilling and eliminated the need for international oil companies’ help and engineering, resulted from increasing capabilities of Turkish state in know-how in energy drilling.

Deep drillings in the Black Sea has been resulted in the biggest natural gas discovery in the history of Turkish state, carrying Türkiye economically and strategically important position.

Energy independence and security by reducing energy imports is key to the vision of the Erdogan’s era, and aimed to create an independent Türkiye free from volatile conditions of the international market and to reduce the current account deficit.

However, it has also been aimed to serve as an important leverages in international conflicts and relations which the issues related to the energy security shapes.

Domestic industry and competing for international markets

In order to enhance the capacity of Turkish national industry and to integrate Turkish-branded car into the international markets for more competitive Turkish economy, Türkiye’s first electric car TOGG, has been previously launched.

Environment-friendly produced TOGG aims to take place in international markets, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, "As of 2025, we will export TOGG and sell it to the world."

Through this, it is expected that it will decrease Türkiye’s trade deficit by $7B, resulting in increasing employment opportunities for the citizens, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed in opening ceremony of the TOGG.

Independent and self-sufficient Türkiye: Foreign policy achievements

While Recep Tayyip Erdogan has critics both within and outside of Türkiye, his pragmatic leadership, which is aimed at paving the way for an independent and self-sufficient Türkiye, has proven him adept at shifting alliances and changing political equations across Türkiye and around the globe.

Turkish state played more pro-active role through its diplomatic efforts and military support in international conflicts. Turkish efforts to be a regional player have been tested through the success of its military equipment and diplomatic relations tried to be balanced with the other powers.

Diplomacy through energy security and pipeline projects: TANAP and TurkStream

Türkiye during the leadership of the President Erdogan initiated the pipeline projects which gives Türkiye an important position in the transfer of energy sources.

Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) carrying Azerbaijani gas to Türkiye and Europe has been opened on 2018, reinforcing the role of Türkiye as energy hub and being important step for energy security.

TurkStream, inaugurated on 2020, is the another project, facilitating the energy flow from Russia to Türkiye.

Cooperation in defence industry: Armenia-Azerbaijan war

In Armenia-Azerbaijan war, the operations of Bayraktar TB2 drones have attracted international attention, policy makers and industry watchers and also in Syria, Northern Iraq and Libya they proved to be effective and gained Turkish state significant experience.

Türkiye has been one of the six countries producing their own drones and showed its willingness to cooperate in defense industry. The cooperation also continued after the war, with special focus on aid, reconstruction and rebuilding of the cities in Azerbaijan after the war.

Mediating role: Ukraine-Russia war and Grain Deal

In addition to the military successes proved in conflict-zones, Türkiye started to appeal to the soft power through embracing a mediator role.

In Ukraine-Russia war, the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hold a number of meetings with Ukrainian and Russian authorities to end the war. It has been a critical task for Turkish state to mediate between Ukraine and Russia since Turkish-produced drones have been supplied to Ukrainian side against the Russian targets.

The balancing relations with two sides helped Türkiye to guarantee the cooperation in security with Ukraine one the one side and in energy, trade and economy with Russia on the other side during the global economic turmoil.

Türkiye became a main actor with UN in the discussions of grain deal with Russia and Ukraine and later the 120-day extension of the deal. The deal, brokered in July in Istanbul, by Türkiye and the UN, guaranteed the shipment of agricultural products from Ukraine, which is very important for global food supply and for the prevention of possible food crisis.

As a result, despite having changed the direction of a number of domestic and foreign policies, his leadership has won him many supporters both within the Turkish political establishment and among many global leaders, from Ukraine and Russia to Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America, Central Asian states and Muslim-majority countries.

In the May 14 elections, Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again aims to win both his presidency and his political achievements, as well as the parliamentary majority of his party and the People's Alliance.