US ‘unwilling’ to push Israel to halt Rafah invasion - experts

Israeli tanks gained control of Gaza’s Rafa border crossing with Egypt on Tuesday, moving towards a potential invasion of the southern city and placing ceasefire negotiations on tenterhooks.

Earlier on Monday, droves of Palestinians were displaced from eastern parts of the city of Rafah in the besieged enclave after an Israeli army evacuation order to relocate to the town of Al Mawasi in southern Gaza.

Across the globe, several leaders and human rights groups have voiced concern about the impending humanitarian catastrophe Israel did not withdraw from Rafah and give peace a chance.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, "A ground invasion in Rafah would be intolerable because of its devastating humanitarian consequences and because of its destabilising impact in the region."

The resistance group Hamas reportedly offered a truce. However, Israel said it did not meet its key demands.

But according to Mairav Zonszein, a Senior Israel Analyst with the Crisis Group, Israel is being disingenuous, "The decision is part of Israel's effort to make it appear as if it wants a deal and is doing everything to get one, while Hamas is rejecting it. But this is misleading,” Zonszein says.

Analysts explain Rafa had housed displaced Palestinians who were initially forced to abandon their homes after October 7, when Hamas' inclusion into Israel claimed around 1200 Israeli lives and 250 hostages.

In response, Israel has killed more than 34,700 Palestinians - the vast majority of whom have been women and children and left 78,100 others injured, as many were displaced to the south.

Political Commentator Nour Odeh describes the situation in Rafah as "catastrophic".

"UNICEF says that nearly all 600,000 children there are sick, injured, or malnourished.1.4 million people are crammed there. They're already fatigued by seven months of genocide. A ground invasion will affect the flow of aid through Rafah and other crossings. It would be cataclysmic," she tells TRT World.

Israel's war cabinet says its operation in Rafa is to apply military pressure on Hamas to make progress on freeing the hostages and the other war aims.

However, according to an Israeli source, Western superpower the US had reportedly halted ammunition shipments on Sunday.

Odeh calls this the first serious step by the American administration "to apply real pressure on Israel."

She adds, "It remains to be seen whether this will hold, especially given the recent developments in Rafah and Netanyahu's sabotage of ceasefire talks."

The West's backing of Israel.

On Monday, Joe Biden and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly spoke amid the unfolding situation, while in May, Biden previously expressed concern about a "major ground operation in Rafah."

Nevertheless, since Tel Aviv's onslaught began, Washington has provided military and diplomatic backing for Israel, say critics.

Odeh says the US and Western governments have also appeared unable to stop Israel as it has continued its advance into the besieged enclave.

"They're unwilling; the US is Israel's largest supplier of weapons and continues to protect Israel from any accountability; Germany is the second arms supplier, the EU is the biggest trading partner. Western governments have plenty of leverage but refuse to use it," the Palestinian Affairs expert tells TRT World.

Professor Sami Al-Arian, Public Affairs Professor and Director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University, sees widespread Western support against the resistance in Gaza.

"Many Western powers have been supportive of Israel's goal in Gaza, which is basically to pacify and neutralise and end the (Palestinian) resistance, or at least to disarm it, and they didn't really care about the cost of this," he tells TRT World.

With more than 125,000 people who have either been killed, missing or injured - with 70% women and Children, Al-Arian describes the human cost as "horrendous" and says there has been little concern "about Palestinian suffering or Palestinian victims."

At the same time, governments proclaiming to defend democracy worldwide, he says, believed Israel would conclude the invasion "within" weeks, despite no end in sight.

The real question he says is how serious the US is to use its heft "leverage" over the Israeli government.

Publicly, the US has insisted it does not want Israel to invade Rafa and sought dialogue concerning the exchange of hostages amid the Palestinian calls to halt the onslaught in Gaza and to withdraw. Still, Al-Arian explains that Israel remains uncommitted to a withdrawal or a ceasefire, calling it the "sticking issue all along".

Nevertheless, the US has recently increased its regional footprint amid ongoing talks between the different fractions.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns spent yesterday meeting with the prime minister of Qatar in Doha, the capital city and the base for Hamas' political leadership. Earlier reports suggested Burns would meet with Netanyahu in Jerusalem.

Although it remains to be seen if the US can harness its "leverage" against Israel, should a move materialise, Al-Arian believes it would be a "move in the right direction".

He says it comes at a moment when Biden faces "tremendous pressure" from the Democratic party's political wings and the student movements, and the US president needs to show he is "serious about stopping this war."

Double standards

Although analysts are quick to point out the Biden administration's varied foreign policy positions regarding Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, underscoring what they regard as widespread inconsistencies.

"The double standards and hypocrisy are very clear, and they're not lost on the wider international public," says Odeh.

Al-Arian also believes there are "double standards" in US foreign policy. He draws a comparison to how quickly the US criticised Russia for allegedly targeting civilians, children's hospitals and educational centres and using starvation tactics in the UK.

In contrast, after seven months of widespread devastation in Gaza, when it comes to Israel's actions against Palestinians, he describes the US' "empty rhetoric" amid pledges to investigate numerous alleged atrocities.

"In the first instance where Russia may or may not have been doing anything, they come with huge condemnation and they mobilise the whole world against Russia. They apply all kinds of sanctions and other measures, and yet when it comes to Israel, actually, it's the other way around. I wish they would just stay neutral," Al-Arian says.

More widely, the professor of Palestinian origin is also critical of what he regards as a level of "complicity" between the US and Israel, insisting it has not pushed to stop Israel’s bombing of Gaza - with many bombs produced in the US.

It leads the analyst to issue a stark warning regarding the situation.

"If Palestinians do not receive any kind of minimum requirements to end the occupation and gain their freedom, this problem is going to fester," explains Al-Arian.

Analysts also point to wider attempts by the US to integrate Israel with the wider region fully as not having aided the Palestinian push for liberation and Statehood.

Al-Arian says the US' previous behaviour has led him to consider it not an "honest broker" in the region.

He draws the example of Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Morocco, and Bahrain normalising ties previously, while prior to October 7, there was a bid to do the same with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Indonesia. Had such a move materialised, Al-Arian believes no concessions would have been made for Palestinians.

Amid the ongoing situation in Rafa, Palestine expert Odeh says even if Israel enters the city and destroys it, it will not alter the more "strategic considerations".

"Israel will not achieve a decisive victory, and it will not secure the release of Israeli captives. Also, it cannot stay in Gaza forever. Everyone will have to come back to the table, but it will be harder then," she says.

While some Western countries like Spain, Ireland and Belgium have shifted their position on Israel, many Western governments continue to back Israel amid its aggression in the enclave; analysts see a growing disjuncture between governments and their citizens.

Despite Israel trying to induce another "Nakba" or mass displacement, Al-Arian says many people across the globe are rejecting this.

"People now are beginning to see Israel for what it is. It is just a racist supremacist, settler, colonial, a greater state that is not willing to stop its project until the last Palestinian," he says. "Now the whole Israeli narrative that they have been saying for over seven decades is collapsing."