Would a third term for Modi undermine India's constitutional democracy?

New Delhi – As India's historic general elections come to an end this Saturday, June 1, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has rallied around a slogan coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi: "Abki baar, 400 paar" (this time, we will win more than 400 seats).

For the BJP, this is a magic number.

Karnataka BJP member of Parliament (MP) Anantkumar Hegde explained why in a recent speech, saying "the party intends to change the Constitution, for which a two-thirds majority is needed. Modi ji said that we need to secure more than 400 seats this time. Why 400? We lack a majority in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House)."

Of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, India's lower house, Modi's party needs 272 to form a government. During the 2019 elections, the party secured 303. But this time round, the BJP has set its sights on 370 seats – which increases to 400 when its allies in the conservative National Democratic Alliance are included.

Opposition political parties, analysts and legal activists warn that if the BJP wins a third term, it will undermine India's constitutional democracy—an agenda the party has pursued since first coming to power in 2014.

Fearful of this future, the Congress-led INDIA Bloc, an alliance of major political parties, was formed in February to prevent the BJP from securing more seats and winning a third term in office.

The alliance has urged people to vote for their parties' candidates to save India's democracy and its secular foundation. They caution that if the BJP returns to power, the country will face significant changes in elections, reservations for minorities in jobs and education, minority rights, and democratic principles, far beyond what has already been seen in the past decade.

Modi and other BJP leaders have vehemently denied any plans to change the constitution.

The plan

BJP leaders assert they will win more than 400 seats in this year's elections, but this proclamation appears to be based more on bravado than facts.

In the past few months, the party has distanced itself from MP Hedge's statement regarding changing the constitution, suggesting a lack of full endorsement.

This is not the first time the politician has made such statements. Hedge voiced similar sentiments in 2017 while serving as a Union minister in the BJP government. Despite this, the party gave him a ticket in the 2019 general elections.

"His statement to change the constitution is a public declaration of the hidden agenda of Modi and his 'Sangh parivar' (Hindu right-wing groups). The ultimate goal of BJP is to destroy Baba Saheb's Constitution. They hate justice, equality, civil rights and democracy," Congress leader Rahul Gandhi tweeted in March.

Almost all opposition political parties, along with several YouTube influencers, activists and political experts, have warned people to think carefully before casting their votes in the ongoing elections.

They worry that the secular constitution of India is under threat. This time, they argue, the BJP—having already laid the groundwork for alterations in the laws and constitutional setup—will turn its Hindutva-oriented goals into reality.

Speaking to TRT World, Zafarul-Islam Khan, ex-chairman of the Delhi Minorities Commission, said "India stands now at a critical juncture. If BJP, rather Modi, wins in the current elections, they will right away plunge to complete what they started during the past 10 years: a Hindu State."

Khan said he worries that the party will throw out secularism and socialism, pass a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) to deny Muslims the right to follow their Islamic family laws; implement a National Register of Citizens (NRC) to snatch Indian citizenship away from millions of the country's Muslims; and take over many archaeological mosques, especially the Gyanwapi at Varanasi and Eidgah at Mathura.

"In short, they will start a civil war as these steps have nothing to do with India's development or progress. They will take these steps using the brute state power, whether they win an absolute majority or not," Khan said.

Endgame

The BJP's ideology and roots are deeply entwined with its parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which has expressed dissatisfaction with and opposition to the constitution since its inception in 1950.

The RSS has long suggested that the constitution lacks the unique mode of governance that existed in ancient India. They argue that the laws outlined in the Manusmriti, an ancient Hindu text, continue to command admiration and obedience to the Hindu ideology worldwide. Constitutional experts, however, do not view this historical reverence as significant.

This election season, the party has campaigned and fought elections thus far on three prominent goals: the construction of the Ram Mandir on the site of the demolished Babri Masjid, the complete integration of the disputed region of Indian-administered Kashmir into India by nullifying its semi-autonomous status, and the covert agenda of establishing India as a Hindu nation.

While two of these major promises have been fulfilled by the party through various means and strategies, the BJP has gone above and beyond in their efforts to achieve them.

For instance, the fight for the construction of the Ram Mandir has extended to numerous historical mosques in India, which now face the threat of being claimed as Hindu places of worship.

This has instilled a sense of fear among minorities, who are subjected to various forms of discrimination and power misuse to suppress their voices. Incidents of violence against Muslims have increased, dissent has been quashed through stringent laws, and protests have been met with forceful demolitions, among other measures.

Press freedom has sharply declined, and a vicious religious polarisation has been successfully woven into the social fabric of the country.

Second-class citizens

The goal of reframing the secular constitution appears increasingly plausible, especially in light of the hate speech delivered by Modi during election rallies and the already implemented UCCs in some states of the country.

India's Home Minister Amit Shah even stated on Sunday that if the party comes into power, they will implement a uniform civil code across the country.

Khan warned that any constitutional amendments, as planned and openly predicted by second-rung leaders of the BJP, would put an official seal on the prevailing situation in which minorities, especially Muslims, have already been relegated to the status of second-class citizens.

"Once constitutional amendments are in place, no one will be able to even approach courts which are now the last resort for minorities, as police, political system, administration, bureaucracy and media have already been suborned. In short, de facto will become de jure," he told TRT World.

Colin Gonsalves, a senior advocate and founder of the Delhi-based Human Rights Law Network, told TRT World that the BJP's main aim is to usher in a Hindu nation. "For that, they need a massive majority in parliament," he said.

Gonsalves detailed the implications of establishing such a state, emphasising that everything hinges on the election results.

"By bringing in Hindu Rashtra, what they mean is they will remove from the constitution the word 'secular' and the word 'socialist.' Secondly, they may introduce the official religion of the country as Hinduism," he said.

For him, broader constitutional changes could follow, potentially eliminating the document. "They don't want a cabinet system. So they may make those changes in the constitution," the lawyer said.

He added that "all institutions' autonomy and independence will be done away with, even judicial independence. They will interfere with that."

Gonsalves drew a parallel to recent developments in Israel, suggesting that Modi might want to follow a similar path, with attempts to introduce amendments that prevent any governmental act from being challenged, even if such acts are unconstitutional.

"They are definitely trying to bring about amendments that will undermine the independence of the judiciary. For (Modi), institutions like the NHRC (National Human Rights Commission), universities, and various commissions have already been undermined by appointing stooges. Already in the judiciary, there are about 50 percent of the judges currently taking positions close to the government," he added.

What has already changed?

After a decade in power, the BJP has already implemented a plethora of democratic changes in India, including amending existing laws.

The pillars of the democratic state and constitutional institutions that are supposed to operate independently, such as the Election Commission, Crime Branch of India (CBI) and Enforcement Directorate (ED), are now controlled by the executive, which is effectively centralised under one person.

The judiciary, at various levels, has been weakened through multiple mechanisms. Amendments to laws have undermined the very essence of reservation, and new laws have been introduced that weaponise dissent or discriminate against Muslim minorities, who comprise 17 percent of the population. Freedom of expression is at an all-time low.

Political analyst and Delhi University professor Apoorvanand, who asked to use only his first name, told TRT World that while there might not be a formal declaration to abolish the current constitution, its effectiveness could be eroded over time.

"When we say that they (BJP) will change the constitution, I think that they will adopt a resolution to demolish this constitution and bring a new one," he said.

The professor emphasised that the constitution could become ineffective while still existing on paper. "The constitution can die by erosion, and this is what is happening."

He added that he believes the BJP won't declare constitutional changes outright. For instance, the reservation policy has shifted to economic lines instead of social deprivation. Similarly, the concept of citizenship was altered with the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), a law which is considered discriminatory against Muslims.

"We shouldn't expect a big bang or an event which will declare the constitution's end. It is already happening before us," he expressed.

For example, the Supreme Court last year allowed surveys and puja at disputed religious sites, which legal experts said undermined the Places of Worship Act of 1991. Additionally, laws were enacted against triple talaq (a practice under which a Muslim man can divorce his wife by simply uttering "talaq" three times), arguing that it undermines the constitutional principle of equality before the law.

The BJP's actions clearly indicate a disregard for the idea of a secular India. For instance, the BJP has distributed copies of the constitution with the word "secular" removed, signalling their lack of commitment to the policy.

Deciding factor

Prashant Bhushan, an author and senior public interest lawyer at the Supreme Court of India, told TRT World that based on the BJP's previous actions, the party will likely implement further restrictions if it achieves a super majority.

"They will definitely try to reduce minorities to second-class citizens, take away their vote in gradual different ways, and disenfranchise them sometimes with questions about their citizenship," he explained, emphasising that the BJP party wants minorities to remain subservient to the ruling majority.

The BJP's wins in state elections last year suggest that Modi's party could easily win this year's national elections.

Even if the BJP doesn't reach its 400-seat goal, analysts still forecast that the party will form India's next government, with the help of allied parties. The BJP will then be expected to continue to push its Hindu nationalist agenda, which critics say has blurred the lines between religion and state, an ideology that has become more mainstream.