Is the international noose tightening around Saudi Arabia?

The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is set to conclude that senior members of the Saudi establishment are responsible for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, according to some reports.

The CIA has already suggested that the operation against Khashoggi could not have happened without Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (often referred to as MBS) knowing about it, particularly due to the amount of power he has centralised in his hands.

US President Donald Trump's speech yesterday, which defended Saudi Arabia, could be viewed as trying to pre-empt the CIA’s report. This would not be the first time that Trump has undercut his own intelligence agency. 

The US Congress strikes back

While Trump may be hopeful that the world will never know the truth about who was behind the death of Khashoggi, the US Congress feels somewhat differently.

Last month, Republican Congressman Lindsey Graham said he wanted to "sanction the hell out of Saudi Arabia". Last night, a bipartisan group of senators from both the Democratic and Republican parties wrote a letter requesting an investigation into whether MBS was responsible for the brutal murder of Khashoggi.

The unusual display of unity between the parties, despite a highly toxic political atmosphere, set the White House on a collision course with a Congress seeking to hold Saudi Arabia accountable, all while Trump wants to honour the more than $100 billion-worth of weapons contracts.

"It is a delicate situation when we have a longtime ally that we've had for decades, but we have a crown prince that I believe ordered the killing of a journalist," Bob Corker, from the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee told the ABC News Network.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has sent a letter to Trump to trigger an investigation under the Global Magnitsky Act of 2016, a law that can give the US the authority to sanction individuals or entities for human rights abuses or corruption.

The act is a powerful instrument that effectively forces the US administration to conduct an investigation into an individual, something that they must do within 120 days.

This, however, doesn't oblige the administration to sanction the individual. But any such investigation and possible conclusions would pile the pressure on both the Trump administration and MBS. Something may eventually have to give.

European reactions

Germany has become one of the first countries to institute an arms embargo against Saudi Arabia.

For the first time on Monday, the German government announced that even weapons contracts that had already been given an export licence would not go ahead, in another blow for MBS, who may have been hoping that the Khashoggi affair would blow over.

This German move is in contrast to the position that has been taken by the US, France and the UK, who have said that their weapons exports to Saudi Arabia will not be affected.

In addition to Germany’s actions, the EU in coordination with the UK, Germany and France, slapped a travel ban on all those who are allegedly connected to the killing of Khashoggi. 

This follows similar moves earlier this week by the US administration, which applied its own travel bans on 17 Saudis connected to the killing.

G20 meeting

The Argentinian G20 hosts have confirmed that MBS is set to attend a meeting of the most advanced economies later this month.

The meeting between heads of states from around the world will prove a test for MBS, the would-be future king of Saudi Arabia. How will foreign leaders that have sanctioned individuals from MBS’s inner circle, implicated in Khashoggi’s killing, approach him?

It could very well prove to be a template for future meetings on the international stage and a barometer for those inside and outside Saudi Arabia on how toxic MBS has become.