Canada in turmoil as Trudeau resigns, Poilievre rises

Facing a caucus revolt and declining poll numbers, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on January 6 that he will resign once the Liberal party selects its next leader. Just prior to the announcement, he met with the Governor General and requested that parliament be prorogued until March 24. This move resets the government agenda and will set the stage for an election.

How did it come to this?

In 2015, Trudeau brought the Liberal Party from third place to a stunning majority government by making major promises related to electoral reform and financial balance.

Yet, those lofty commitments soon gave way to disappointment. Electoral reform attempts were abandoned within the first year of Trudeau's term, and deficits ballooned to a historic $61.9 billion. Meanwhile, his government has been mired in scandal, with the Prime Minister's office becoming increasingly insular and secretive.

Crucially, Trudeau's resignation came following nearly a month of silence after one of his most trusted and closest cabinet ministers, Chrystia Freeland, resigned on the day she was to deliver the highly anticipated fall economic statement. As she announced her departure, Freeland cited frustration with "costly political gimmicks."

All of this is occurring at the same time that incoming United States President Donald Trump is threatening Canada with the prospect of 25 percent tariffs on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, a move that could cripple the country’s economy.

So, what happened to Trudeau’s once-promising leadership, and what lies ahead for Canada as it faces these mounting challenges?

Trudeau's leadership

Despite his struggles, Trudeau did notch some wins during his time as PM. Certainly, he has taken credit for his government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Not only did the government fulfil its promise to provide free vaccinations to anyone in the country who wanted it, but it also provided robust support for businesses and individuals who were unable to work.

Nonetheless, his decision to trigger an early election in 2021, aimed at regaining the majority control of the House of Commons that eluded him in the 2019 vote, backfired. While the Liberals managed to retain power, they were still left with a minority government.

During that campaign, he alienated some Canadians by making mandatory vaccinations for federal workers a wedge issue. Those frustrated with vaccine mandates and other restrictions eventually organised a “freedom convoy” that descended on Ottawa and several border cities.

It ended when the federal government imposed the never-before-used Emergency Act, which provided law enforcement with extraordinary powers. In order to pass the legislation, the Trudeau government entered into a supply and confidence agreement with the New Democrats, who promised support for two years in exchange for commitments to New Democrat policies such as national pharmacare and dental care, among other things.

Mounting challenges

At the same time, the Conservative party replaced their third leader in six years and elected Pierre Poilievre, who was able to revitalise the party by signing up the highest number of new members in history and focusing the party's attacks on the cost of living, high crime rate, and the housing crisis.

Throughout 2024, he led the party to significant public approval and is poised to win a landslide election victory this year.

Meanwhile, the Liberals faced internal turmoil after losing several by-elections, including a "safe" Liberal seat, sparking calls for Trudeau to reflect on his leadership. He quickly dismissed these calls but later suffered another loss in Quebec.

In response, the Liberals introduced a temporary goods and services tax (GST) holiday and a $250 payment for those earning under $150,000, but these measures failed to boost support. Freeland’s resignation in December underscored the crisis, while Trudeau faced pressure to reshuffle his cabinet after six ministers announced departures. Reports indicated he planned to appoint Mark Carney as finance minister and shift Freeland to a new trade role.

What's next?

Time is of the essence for both the Liberal government and the country. Donald Trump has not wavered from his threat of tariffs and has openly speculated about taking the country over through economic means.

Provincial leaders have filled the void left by the federal government. For example, Ontario Premier Doug Ford appeared on American news networks arguing Canada's case. Alberta Premier, Danielle Smith recently travelled to Florida to remind Trump of the mutually beneficial trade relationship and the virtues of purchasing oil and gas from Canada rather than the Middle East.

The Liberal party has expedited its leadership race by imposing a January 24 deadline for candidates to file their nomination papers. The rules for the PM race include a high entrance fee of $350,000, raised from individual donations, and the leader will be selected by all party members on March 9.

The new leader will become the Prime Minister of Canada, but that person may be given the title of shortest-serving PM, since they will need to return to the House of Commons two weeks later with a Throne Speech.

The Throne Speech sets out the legislative agenda of the government, and by convention is a confidence vote. All opposition parties have pledged that they will vote the government down at the first opportunity, which in all likelihood will mean an early May election date.

There are many unknowns when it comes to what the future holds for Canada. If the polls continue to show support for the Conservatives, a Pierre Pollievre government would usher in a swift departure from the Liberal regime.

Poilievre has promised to bring in fiscal responsibility. To ensure this, he has pledged to cut funding to the national broadcaster, reverse Liberal policies on healthcare, as well as toughen immigration.

On the international front, it is expected that his Conservative government may find more common ground with the Trump administration. Pollievre will also likely shift Canada's focus away from climate commitments that Trudeau favoured in exchange for a stronger role for Canada’s oil and gas industry.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Trudeau’s resignation marks the end of a turbulent chapter in Canadian politics. Once a symbol of hope and progressive ideals, his leadership faltered under the weight of broken promises, scandals, and economic pressures.

As Canada braces for new leadership and the challenges ahead, Trudeau’s legacy serves as both a cautionary tale and a reminder of the volatility of modern politics.