From Lebanon to Syria: Iran's zero-sum game in its own backyard

In just nine years, Iran has gone from being a regional power to witnessing the complete collapse of its influence in the Middle East.

The loss of Syria, a growing energy crisis, and a crippling ‘brain drain’ have put into question the future of a country that dreamed of reviving Persian greatness.

Flashback to 2015. Tehran celebrates the signing of a nuclear deal with the US and other world powers. Sanctions are about to be lifted, and the economy is ready for growth.

The ‘Shiite Crescent’ — from the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf — seems to be a fait accompli.

Iranian proxies control key points in the region: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthis in Yemen.

Supreme leader Ali Khamenei speaks of Iran approaching the “zenith” of its power. The Persian empire seems to be reborn in a new form.

Then the cookie crumbled.

The first blows came during Trump's first presidency. In 2018, he tore up the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed harsh sanctions on Tehran. The Iranian rial collapsed, and inflation skyrocketed.

But the real shock came with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020. An American missile struck his convoy neat the Baghdad airport, the architect of Iranian expansion in the Middle East died instantly.

This assassination showed that even the most protected regime officials were vulnerable.

It was followed by a series of mysterious deaths of Iranian nuclear scientists. The impenetrable facade of Iranian security cracked.

Last straw on the camel’s back

But the real catastrophe erupted after October 7, 2023.

Raging wars across the Middle East war destroyed Iran's entire system of regional influence within months.

After Hamas's operation against Israel, Hezbollah was drawn into the conflict with Tel Aviv and suffered devastating losses. And in December 2024, the unthinkable happened — the regime of Bashar al Assad in Syria, Iran's key ally, fell.

The fall of Damascus was a crushing blow. Within a week, Iran's forward positions retreated from the Mediterranean Sea to the Iraqi border — 500 kilometres closer to Iran.

Tehran hastily evacuated 4,500 of its citizens from Syria. The land corridor to Israel's border, built over the years, disappeared.

Global and regional powers — the EU, the UK and the Gulf nations — immediately rushed into the resulting vacuum.

What took decades to build collapsed in less than a week. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has tried to put up a brave face. Its generals claim that Assad had long become an unreliable ally.

When Israel attacked Iranian positions in Syria, killing 19 commanders in a year, he allegedly did nothing to protect them. Some even suspected him of secretly colluding with Israel.

However, the foreign policy setbacks are just the tip of the iceberg of Iranian problems. The country is experiencing a severe energy crisis: despite vast oil and gas reserves, Iranians are without light and heat.

Schools are switching to distance learning due to pollution, and factories are shutting down due to the energy shortage. The president is forced to ask citizens to “turn down the thermostat by two degrees”.

Even more alarming is the mass exodus of the population.

In 2024, the number of Iranian students abroad reached a historic high. They leave for Türkiye, Canada, Germany — and often don't return.

The ‘brain drain’ undermines the country's development prospects when they are most needed.

Meanwhile, Iran plans to deport about two million Afghans by March 2025, which will further destabilise the labour market.

The ostrich syndrome

Even more ironic are the Supreme Leader's words that the "resistance" is not over.

"With the developments in Syria and the crimes the Zionist regime is committing and the crimes that America is committing, and the help that some others are giving to them, they thought that the resistance was over," Khamenei said in a televised address. "They are completely wrong."

These words were spoken even as Iranian military forces were hastily evacuating Damascus.

Iran can hardly sell tales about the ‘axis of resistance’ to anyone except a handful of incorrigible fantasists.

A country being pushed out of Syria and Iraq, whose president is concerned with saving electricity, can hardly claim the role of a regional superpower.

Contradictions are growing within the Iranian elite. Reformists have long criticised the military for wasting scarce resources on costly foreign adventures.

Now, they hope that the defeat of the Revolutionary Guard will strengthen their position.

In their view, the state should focus on the economic crisis at home. Indeed, if Iran had opened trade routes instead of military corridors, it might have protected both its influence and economy.

But history doesn't deal in hypotheticals.

The dream of a ‘neo-Persian empire’ has crashed against the reality of the modern world.

The question now is whether Iran can learn from its defeat and find a new path forward, or will continue to cling to the ghosts of past glory, sinking deeper into isolation and crisis.

The fall of Assad's regime could become for Tehran not just a foreign policy catastrophe but a moment of truth, forcing it to reconsider its role in the region and the world.

Whether Tehran has the political will and foresight for this remains a big question.