Blinken's visit highlights US-Türkiye talks on Syria and security

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has arrived in Ankara for high-stakes talks that will cover the enduring threat posed by the PKK terrorist group to Türkiye and the importance of avoiding further conflict in Syria. His visit, coming amid escalating tensions in the region, carries both symbolic and strategic significance.

Speaking earlier in Jordan, Blinken reiterated the need to prevent new conflicts in Syria and said he would address the PKK/YPG issue with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On Friday, he is set to meet Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to discuss a range of pressing topics.

Dr Ali Burak Daricili, an international relations expert from Bursa Technical University, framed the visit within the broader geopolitical context. "Blinken's visit is undoubtedly important. When we evaluate the current challenges around us, his visit to Ankara holds significance. There has been a rapidly developing de facto situation in Syria, marking the beginning of a new process. Additionally, we have entered a new phase in the Hamas-Israel conflict," Daricili observed.

Prof Dr Ozden Zeynep Oktav, an expert in international relations from Istanbul Medeniyet University, highlighted the critical importance of addressing the YPG's presence in Syria.

"The most critical issue in discussions between Antony Blinken and Türkiye’s esteemed minister of foreign affairs is the YPG," Oktav noted. "The pressing question is whether the YPG will maintain its presence east of the Euphrates. Has the YPG already evolved into a de facto autonomous entity or statelet? This remains debatable."

The PKK/YPG terror group, which operated freely in Syria during the Assad regime, faces increasing pressure from the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is advancing on towns under its control. The group, which receives US military support as a regional partner, is grappling with new challenges.

Daricili identified Syria as a key focus for the discussions, stating, "I believe the primary item on the agenda will be the next phase in Syria. For Türkiye, the number one issue regarding Syria remains the presence of the PYD and YPG. The US relationship with these groups is well known. Türkiye will undoubtedly express its sensitivities."

Meanwhile, the US maintains a significant military presence in eastern Syria, where the PKK/YPG operate and vital oil fields are located. While Washington cites counterterrorism as the justification for its support, the YPG's control over Daesh detention facilities and reports of emptied prisons have raised concerns. "Reports have surfaced that they emptied some of these facilities, and this has raised additional concerns," Oktav emphasised. "This is undoubtedly a topic for discussion between Blinken and Fidan."

The talks also extend to Israel's genocidal war in besieged Gaza, where the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has escalated tensions. Daricili suggested that Türkiye might be asked to assist with prisoner exchanges. "In the context of the Hamas-Israel conflict, Türkiye may be asked to assist, particularly regarding prisoner exchanges. I expect these issues to dominate the discussions," he noted.

Transitional role

However, Daricili tempered expectations for any substantial breakthroughs. "Blinken's role is transitional. He is no longer in a position to shape or determine US foreign policy, as the administration will change on January 20th. Everyone is now anticipating the arrival of Trump," he said.

"While the meeting holds symbolic importance, it is unrealistic to expect significant results. A potential meeting between Trump and President Erdogan will be far more valuable and impactful."

Türkiye, which has repeatedly emphasised its commitment to safeguarding its borders and preventing terrorist groups from exploiting the volatile situation in Syria, will likely reaffirm its stance on these issues.

Oktav also pointed out the strategic significance of border regions like Qamishli, near Sinjar. "Qamishli, located near Nusaybin, is a critical area. Unlike in the past, Russia no longer has the same level of influence in this region," she explained.

At the conclusion of Blinken’s visit, the focus will remain on how the dynamics of the US-Türkiye relationship will evolve, particularly with a new US administration on the horizon. For now, the discussions have highlighted the complexities of balancing security, regional stability and longstanding alliances.