How important is the Turkish diaspora in upcoming elections?

Soon after the two deadly earthquakes hit Türkiye and Syria, killing over 55,000 people and destroying thousands of homes, the Turkish diaspora began collecting and dispatching aid for the victims.

One of the first countries from where relief materials were dispatched was Germany, home to more than three million people with Turkish roots.

But it was also in Germany where the trepidation of living as a member of the Turkish diaspora was in stark display when suspected arsonists set fire to donated goods in North Rhine-Westphalia in Western Germany.

So it is against this backdrop that Türkiye is heading into national elections in May to decide the leader and the political party that will lead the Mediterranean country of 84 million people for the next five years.

How large is the diaspora vote?

Around 6.5 million Turks live in other countries. Among them, 3.28 million are eligible to cast their votes in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary election.

Compared to the 60.9 million registered voters within Türkiye, the diaspora vote might appear to be minuscule. But in a tight race where every vote counts, their stamp of approval can have a decisive impact, as seen in the 2018 election that resulted in Erdogan's victory.

“The diaspora vote does not make a huge difference in election outcomes, but still, the expatriate votes tell a lot about what Turks living outside think about Turkish politics and the future of their country,” says Sinem Cengiz, a Qatar-based political analyst who focuses on Turkish affairs.

Diaspora voting will run from April 27 to May 9, according to Türkiye’s Supreme Election Board. In Türkiye, the election will be held on May 14.

A majority of the Turkish diaspora lives in Western Europe, where Turkish workers settled in the 1960s as part of the post-World War II reconstruction programme. They make up the single-largest Muslim immigrant group in Western Europe.

Expatriate Turks cast their votes in the national election for the first time during the August 2014 presidential election with Erdogan winning with 5.72 percent of votes.

As per the law, every expat over 18 and listed on the electoral roll maintained at the population registration offices or the diplomatic missions is eligible to cast a vote.

With over 1.4 million registered diaspora voters, Germany tops the list of countries where Turkish politics will play out at a fever-pitch, followed by France, the Netherlands and Belgium.

What has been the diaspora voting trend?

The diaspora participation has gradually increased over the years as authorities have added more booths where expats can vote.

“Prior to 2014, Turks abroad who wanted to participate in elections had to come to Türkiye to vote. However, the procedures for external voting became easier in 2014 as Turks living abroad were able to vote at diplomatic missions in the country they were based in,” says Cengiz.

The rising trend has also coincided with Ankara’s ever-expanding footprint in foreign affairs, such as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's role in opening a corridor for Ukrainian grain exports in the middle of a conflict with Russia.

In 2014, only half a million votes were cast by the 2.8 million registered voters in the presidential election. That was mainly due to logistical issues, as polling booths were established in urban centres, and first-time voters were confused about the process.

Nevertheless, Erdogan won with 62.5 percent of the expat votes.

The turnout increased in the parliamentary election held the following year as more polling stations were added, and the duration for casting votes increased. More than one million votes were cast.

Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) Party again emerged at the top.

In the 2017 constitutional referendum aimed at streamlining the working of the presidency, the turnout among expats reached 1.4 million voters.

In the 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections, which the Erdogan's AK Party once again won with the help of its allies, expat participation jumped to more than three million.

What’s prompting the diaspora to vote?

A paper co-authored by researchers Sebnem Koser Akcapar and Damla Bayraktar Aksel argues that the Turkish diaspora attained renewed importance in the early 2000s when the Erdogan's AK Party realised its importance in projecting Ankara’s soft power abroad.

It was also around the time Ankara upped efforts to join the European Union.

Türkiye has significantly increased its diplomatic presence internationally in the past two decades, increasing the number of foreign missions to 236 in 2017 from 163 in 2002.

The lack of representation that politicians with Turkish roots get in Europe is perhaps a reason that has propelled the diaspora to have more say in the Turkish elections.

For instance, in the 1990s, there were more Dutch Surinamese politicians than Dutch-Turks in the Netherlands, even though Turks had a larger population. Suriname, a tiny South American nation, has a total population of over half a million. Just the registered Turkish voters in the Netherlands are more than 260,000.

Turkophobia was particularly visible during Brexit when right-wing politicians fanned lies about a horde of Turkish migrants trying to reach Britain.

“Studies suggest that Turks who face discrimination at a higher rate in the countries they reside are more likely to be motivated by populist and nationalist discourse emanating from their homeland. However, not all the Turks in Europe feel the same; it also depends on the socio-political environment of each European state,” says Cengiz.