Pipelines, markets, railroads, equipment: What Türkiye offers over energy cooperation

The meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in late September, has given positive signals for future energy cooperation between the regional powers.

Joint energy drilling operations in the East Mediterranean, and extending the energy network to Europe through Türkiye, were among topics of discussion between the two sides.

The Mediterranean, which has long been a disputed region over energy drilling operations and maritime borders, is now becoming a scene for possible joint energy drilling operations by neighbouring countries. While there are many states sharing maritime borders here, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration have, for many years, opposed the involvement of Türkiye in the negotiations over the Mediterranean.

However, experts emphasise that all options to extract and carry energy in the Mediterranean that leave out Türkiye are patently unviable, due to the latter’s strategic location, sophisticated infrastructure and railroad connections passing through Anatolia.

In addition to Israel, Greece has also greenlighted an improvement in bilateral relations with Türkiye, although experts are unsure whether the current harmony can evolve into actual cooperation in the Mediterranean, as energy cooperation requires a durable and stable relationship, while pledging long-term peace among partners.

In addition to offering a stable relationship among the regional actors, Türkiye has many significant advantages for energy drilling operations, and for what comes afterwards — transporting the product to the market.

The land route

Due to its geo-strategic location, Türkiye offers multi-directional land routes extending from Azerbaijan to Europe, an absolute advantage according to experts.

“The pipeline that Türkiye has proposed — which passes through the Anatolian landmass rather than taking the Mediterranean sea route — would offer a more cost-effective and safer route that could reach the markets more easily,” Murat Aslan, associate professor of international relations at Hasan Kalyoncu University, tells TRT World.

“Assuring safe and secure energy supply as well as trade routes and logistics through uninterrupted supply chains in trade and energy will be key for EU and NATO countries,” Ali Oguz Dirioz, professor of energy security at TOBB University of Economics and Technology, adds.

“Critically, the Mediterranean, which is sensitive to tectonic movements, lacks solid ground to guarantee a safe route for pipelines, which can also be susceptible to natural disasters due to excessive exposure to sea pressure. This is evident in the reluctance of private companies to lay the previously envisioned EastMed pipeline along its bed,” Aslan adds.

The EastMed offshore pipeline is a project aiming to carry natural gas resources of the Eastern Mediterranean via Cyprus and Crete to mainland Greece and then to Europe. The accord of the project was signed in Athens in 2020 by the Greek, Greek Cypriot and Israeli leaders. However in 2022, the Biden administration withdrew support from the project, which by then had been marked as economically unviable and environmentally unsound.

Although transferring the natural gas through Türkiye would have been three times cheaper, the latter had been excluded from the project.

Logistical capabilities

The second reason driving the recent interest in the Turkish route, experts indicate, is that Türkiye already has an excellent pipeline infrastructure. “The planned pipelines will most likely continue through Türkiye’s existing infrastructure, via Greece towards Italy and the rest of the world,” Dirioz tells TRT World.

Pipelines are significant because the storage of natural gas is difficult once extracted. Gas needs to be transported immediately after extraction.

Not only does Türkiye have well-functioning pipelines linking Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, there are more projects in progress. Another appeal is the huge market for natural gas already existing in Türkiye, Aslan emphasises.

Echoing his argument, Dirioz adds, “Türkiye as a market with 86 million people is also a destination for this natural gas, not only for heating but also for industry and electricity generation.”

Well-equipped drilling inventory

Having a lively market, pipelines and railroads is backed up by the equipment Türkiye has built for years to assist its energy exploration, drilling and processing.

“Türkiye conducting the exploration and possible joint energy extraction with its own inventory of vessels is a significant input for Israel and other partner states,” Aslan says.

Since the East Mediterranean has been divided to many blocks, whose contracts have been given to various companies, and entails significant cost to the states giving the contracts, joint drilling with Türkiye potentially means more revenue for the partners, Aslan adds.

Long-term regional stability

If the parties involved maintain their commitment, all these advantages and cost-effectiveness could make the cooperation sustainable and profitable in the long-run, say experts. If the states extract revenue through the energy cooperation, they would want the relationship to continue for an extended period, Aslan explains.

There is already an important threshold that has been crossed through energy diplomacy, as a result of Türkiye-Egypt normalisation, and recent developments in bilateral relations with Greece and Israel through the discussions over joint energy projects.

“If there is a consensus and cooperation among the most important players of the region, namely Türkiye, Israel and Egypt, especially in the energy sector, then they would seek a stable environment in the region for many years, built upon the existing status-quo,” he continues.

“Energy trade generally and pipelines in particular require long term stability as well as a long term engagement of the involved parties,” says Dirioz.

Inclusiveness in gas forum

However, building a new status-quo based on collaboration might be a challenge. Previously, Türkiye was excluded from the EastMed Gas Forum, which is an international organisation formed officially by the Greek Cypriot administration, Egypt, France, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and Palestine in 2020.

Although the forum aimed at working on energy-related matters, and gave out messages of regional cooperation, their actual intention was to form a bloc against Türkiye.

Once it was formed, Italy and France started supporting the Greek Cypriot regime, and France and the US conducted military exercises there, deviating from the so-called energy cooperation mission.

However, it seems these countries have now reconciled to the folly of excluding Türkiye, having now abandoned the East Med Pipelines project itself, says Dirioz.

Now, with the new, conciliatory messaging and rapprochement with Egypt, if the forum can accept and formulate a new strategy that includes Türkiye, energy diplomacy will be more constructive, felt Aslan. He added, “If the gas forum succeeds in its attempt at inclusiveness, these recent developments will put the region in the right direction.” That means reaching an intergovernmental understanding on the extraction of energy resources in the region, he further said. “Otherwise, the significance of having a gas forum will diminish because it means that a collaborating country is perceived as a competitor by others.”

Talking about the recent developments, Nimrod Goren, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and co-founder of Diplomeds, expressed the need for more inclusivity in the Mediterranean, with countries having better bilateral relations and with mechanisms not excluding potential members. “Mediterranean diplomacy should aim at such a goal, and should encourage regional countries to assist each other on their paths to resolving countries with their neighbours, rather than be reliant on non-regional mediation.”

Envisioned corridors

The region is also witnessing the emergence of planned corridors reaching to Europe, like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which excludes Türkiye.

To make these routes viable, the railway connections matter, says Aslan, as the railways offer the cheapest route. If a planned route from India has to regularly change from land to sea, it increases the cost due to the cycle of unloading and reloading of the goods.

“It is not feasible to exclude Türkiye, as the project proposed by India would require a railway connection, which you can have over land but not over the seas,” Aslan says.

Türkiye has already started a railway project between Edirne and Basra in Iraq. Once completed, Türkiye will have an advantageous railway connection reaching all the way to the Gulf.

“No matter what anyone declares, what matters is what exists in reality,” Aslan adds as a final word."