TikTok faces potential US ban in nine days – what led to this showdown?

The clock is ticking on TikTok’s future in the US, as the Supreme Court is set to hear an oral argument on Friday (January 10) challenging legislation that seeks to ban the popular short-form video app nationwide. The audio of the public session will be live-streamed.

It all began last year when outgoing President Joe Biden signed legislation requiring ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, to sell the platform by January 19, 2025. If the company fails to comply, TikTok will be banned in the US.

President-elect Donald Trump, who takes oath on January 20, has the authority to issue a 90-day delay of the law after Friday. He could also instruct the Justice Department not to enforce the law or prosecute Apple or Google for hosting TikTok in their app stores.

Back in December, the court agreed to hear TikTok’s appeal against the legislation.The platform is used by over 170 million Americans.

What is the issue?

The Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) mandates ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US business to a non-Chinese company or face a ban. Despite interest from figures like billionaire Frank McCourt and Shark Tank host Kevin O’Leary, no buyer has been shortlisted as yet.

Advocates and supporters of the legislation argue that TikTok poses national security risks by potentially allowing the Chinese government to access and steal American data and spread disinformation. TikTok, which has become immensely popular among young adults and teenagers, denies these allegations, contending that the law infringes on the First Amendment of the US Constitution – Free Speech.

TikTok has been banned in other countries before, for example in India in 2024 and in Pakistan, where it has been blocked temporarily several times. It is also facing lawsuits in other parts of the world. However, a nationwide ban in the US would be unprecedented for a tech platform.

Marjorie Buchser, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House and senior advisor at UNESCO, told TRT World that one of the biggest issues for TikTok is that it is perceived to be Chinese-owned.

TikTok, she said, is clearly different because it’s not created and based in the Bay Area, and it's not an American technology company. “Of course, all these companies are global, so where they come from does matter, but their reach is across the world,” she added.

“One question that one can have is – is TikTok that bad compared to other platforms? And I think that generally, while it’s a relatively new platform compared to Instagram or Facebook or YouTube, they tried to get up to speed quite quickly on industry best practices and followed suit with the Digital Services Act with a sort of transparency report,” she said.

In terms of practices, Buchser said that TikTok is not very far from what American companies do.

“I think in terms of the argument to say it’s a very risky platform or it causes more harm, I don't think there’s evidence to say that TikTok, for example, causes more harm than YouTube or Instagram. Now, there’s also the claim that TikTok may be a way for the Chinese government to collate data on US citizens,” she said.

She went on to explain that digital platforms heavily use the data they collect on their users. “This is not new, this is not specific to TikTok. The US government has been shown to use some or sort of try to get some of the data as well,” she added.

To some extent, Buchser said, there’s no great difference whether or not the Chinese government is using TikTok as a way to spy on the US population.

“I haven’t seen any evidence of that. Of course, it's possible, but I wouldn't say that it's as likely as it's depicted,” she said, adding that the main problem the US government and lobbyists have against TikTok is that it’s not an American platform and it’s performing quite well in the US market.

According to the Atlantic Council, an analysis on TikTok’s national security risks carried out by their Digital Forensic Research Lab, showed that TikTok could present a unique risk in terms of its Chinese ownership “in that the PRC’s National Intelligence Law does give the government broad leeway to potentially compel the company to grant it access to TikTok’s data, including on Americans. In addition, even under the circumstances of outside control of TikTok’s data storage, it would be almost impossible to know if Chinese intelligence authorities somehow maintained a backdoor into these data streams,” the Council said.

So, is there room for negotiations?

The next nine days are going to be crucial.

Buchser identified three possible outcomes – TikTok can get banned, sold to a US-based company or partly sold.

The most likely scenario, according to her, is that TikTok will be banned in the US if it fails to secure a buyer. Another possibility is that it could be sold to a US-based company, as mandated by the government.

However, she expressed doubts about this option, citing potential opposition from the Chinese government, which may view the sale as an export control issue.

“They could say this is a company that has a very high value in terms of intellectual property, which is indeed true,” she noted, highlighting TikTok's highly sophisticated recommender algorithm, finely tuned to user preferences.

A partial sale, she suggested, might involve TikTok selling its platform and user base but withholding access to its algorithm and technical components. This scenario would significantly diminish TikTok US’s appeal to potential buyers and likely lower its valuation.

How would the ban work?

A misconception about the ban is that TikTok will just disappear. It won’t. What the ban means is that – if the law takes effect on Friday, users won’t be able to update the app and those who don’t already have it will not be able to download it.

The impact on content creators

For influencers and content creators, TikTok’s shutdown could be a seismic shift. While top influencers like Chali D’Amelio (155.7 million followers) and Addison Rae (88.5 million followers) who have made it to Hollywood and are friends with reality TV stars like the Kardashians, don’t seem to need the platform that much, other creators do rely on its algorithm-driven platform for income, brand collaborations, and community engagement.

In particular, small businesses and independent creators stand to lose a vital marketing tool. While there are alternatives like Instagram Reels and YouTube shorts, it won’t be the same for young people and content creators.

From a very basic human rights perspective, Buchser said, banning a platform that has hosted numerous conversations and has millions of active users who rely on the platform for revenue would have a big impact on freedom of expression in the US.

“I think in a context where all the other platforms are American and moderated on American terms, potentially having a platform that is different and more diverse has a lot of benefits in terms of freedom of expression and access to information,” she said

“If you also think in terms of cultural diversity, you have potentially more content from across the world that comes to American users. A ban on a platform like this will for sure have a negative impact on the livelihood of creators, freedom of expression and access to information,” she added.

TRT World reached out to TikTok for a comment but got no response.