Trump or Harris? These seven swing states will decide next US president

As the American public prepares to vote in the 60th presidential election on November 5, the fierce competition between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump has focused attention on seven critical swing states.

These states, known for their unpredictable voting patterns, will play a decisive role in determining the next president of the US.

The states under the spotlight include Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia have historically swung between Democratic and Republican candidates in past elections, making their outcomes crucial in the upcoming vote.

The importance of these states lies in the unique US electoral system, the Electoral College. Under this system, the president is not chosen directly by popular vote but by 538 electors. A candidate needs a majority of 270 electors to win the presidency.

Therefore, the candidate who receives the most votes in a state typically takes all of that state's electoral votes, making victories in populous and competitive states essential.

Despite the consistent partisan leanings of major states like California and Texas, which have long supported Democrats and Republicans, respectively, the battleground states' outcomes remain unpredictable and pivotal.

With updated electoral votes from the 2020 census, these key states will once again be at the centre of the election, holding a combined total of 93 electoral votes.

Currently, polling data shows that the race between Harris and Trump in these key states is incredibly close. According to Real Clear Politics (RCP), Trump leads Harris by less than 1 percent in five of the seven swing states.

Delegate in key states

According to the updated delegate counts based on the 2020 census, Arizona has 11 delegates, Nevada has six, Wisconsin has 10, Michigan has 15, Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina has 16, and Georgia has 16 delegates.

For example, if a candidate wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan, they would secure a total of 50 delegates from just these three states.

Conversely, losing four of these states would significantly reduce a candidate's chances of winning the election.

In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won despite receiving fewer total votes than his opponent, Hillary Clinton, by securing 304 delegates through strong performances in key states.

Key areas in Harris-Trump race

On July 21, when US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed Harris as the Democratic candidate, Trump was leading Biden in both national polls and key state polls.

At that time, Biden had 42.3 percent support in key state polls, compared to 46.7 percent for Trump.

With Biden's withdrawal, Harris quickly closed the gap with Trump after her nomination. As of today, in key state polls, both candidates are nearly tied, with Harris at 47.3 percent.

According to data from Real Clear Politics (RCP), a platform that publishes US election polls, Trump leads Harris by less than 1 percent in five of the seven key states.

Looking at each key state individually, Trump leads in Arizona with 47.3 percent to Harris's 46.8 percent; in Nevada, Trump has 47.4 percent to Harris's 46 percent; in Wisconsin, Trump has 47.6 percent to Harris's 48.6 percent; in Michigan, Trump has 46.5 percent to Harris's 48.5 percent; in Pennsylvania, Trump has 47.7 percent to Harris's 47.5 percent; in North Carolina, Trump has 47.2 percent to Harris's 46.3 percent; and in Georgia, Trump has 48.1 percent to Harris's 47.1 percent.

The average of recent polls in these seven swing states shows Trump with 47.4 percent and Harris with 47.3 percent support.

State dynamics and Gaza war

Nationwide polls indicate that inflation and economic issues, debates over abortion, and border security are the main concerns on voters' minds. Additionally, the US policy on Gaza is emerging as a significant issue.

Michigan, a key state with 15 delegates and the largest population of Muslim and Arab Americans in the country, has seen a surge of "independent" voters driven by harsh criticism of Biden's unrestrained financial, political and military support for Israel's carnage in besieged Gaza.

These voters, who criticise Biden's Gaza war policy, are signalling that they may not vote for him but also do not see Trump as a viable alternative.

These independents are considering finding a third-party candidate or voting for Harris if US policy toward Israel changes. They are paying close attention to Harris' stance on Gaza. Harris has so far called for urgent ceasefire in Gaza, but has rejected demands for arms embargo on Israel.

Meanwhile, all indicators in Wisconsin, which the Democrats reclaimed through Biden in 2020, suggest that the margin between Trump and Harris is less than 1 percent in favour of the Democrats.

Georgia, which sparked controversy in 2020 due to its influence on election results and subsequent legal battles, is also emerging as a key state for the 2024 elections.

In this state, where Republican leanings have reportedly increased recently, Trump won comfortably in 2016 but lost to Biden by just 0.3 percent in 2020, leading to significant disputes.