'A divided country': What's happening in Mozambique?

Violent protests broke out in Mozambique on Monday after a controversial court ruling upheld the re-election of Daniel Chapo, a candidate of ruling Frelimo, the party in power since the country’s independence.

Within minutes of the announcement, protests broke out across the country. Nationwide, Frelimo offices, police stations, banks, and factories have been looted and torched in the past few days.

Over 1,500 prisoners escaped from a high-security prison after knocking down a wall amid political unrest following the disputed October elections. Clashes during the breakout left over 30 dead and 15 injured. Around 150 inmates were later recaptured.

“We have this (Fremlico) party that brought independence to Mozambique but has failed to transition to promote democracy,” Rufino Sitoe, a Mozambican political analyst, told TRT World.

The Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Fremlico) led the struggle for independence from Portugal in 1975.

Daniel Chapo, 47, of Frelimo, is set to become Mozambique’s fifth president. Chapo secured over 70 percent of the vote, according to the electoral commission, while Venancio Mondlane of the Podemos party garnered 20 percent. Once-dominant opposition party Renamo has been relegated to third place.

Opposition leaders, alleging electoral fraud, have denounced the polls as illegitimate.

Sitoe noted dwindling voter turnout—down to just 40 percent in the recent election—reflecting public disillusionment. “The people feel that their grievances are ignored, and this compounds frustrations,” he said.

Chapo’s main challenger and opposition leader, Mondlane, now in exile, has urged supporters to protest what he claims was a rigged election, warning of a “new popular uprising” if results remain unchanged.

In a Facebook Live, Mondlane vowed to install a parallel presidency on January 15, the same day Chapo is set to take office.

The unrest, spanning three months, has claimed around 150 lives.

While Mozambique has been caught up in a political upheaval since the election, the recent protests and the much-talked-about prison break occurred after the Constitutional Court upheld the vote count and Frelimo’s victory.

“I suppose this could have been avoided if the public had believed the election results were credible or if the government had found a negotiated solution with the leading opposition candidate to resolve this crisis,” said Emilia Columbo of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“As it stands, the ruling party candidate, Daniel Chapo, will take office next month but he will face a very difficult challenge in managing a divided country that does not accept his win and a party that is also divided and supported him as a compromise candidate,” she told TRT World.

Pent-up anger

Discontent runs deep as Frelimco's victory has reignited public anger over decades of corruption, economic stagnation, and political dominance.

The rise of an opposition politician despite all the roadblocks is testimony of the frustration among the people, experts say.

“Mondlane has managed to bring everyone’s frustrations together,” Mozambican political analyst Sitoe said, noting Mondlane’s rise despite systemic hurdles. “They created so many difficulties for him to run for president but he still became popular.”

Mondlane has channelled popular anger, emerging as a unifying figure against Frelimo’s dominance.

“The people on the streets agree with him. So that's why we have this massive protest in Mozambique. And while this protest is going on, the government is not open to negotiations either,” he explained, adding that the government would ignore the protests instead of finding a peaceful solution.

Over the years, Sitoe said, there has been a lot of corruption where the locals see the leaders of the Fremlico party as being there to benefit themselves.

“Some of the protestors have nothing to lose because they've lived in extreme poverty for years, and things have only gotten worse,” Sitoe added.

Escalating crisis

The government’s heavy-handed response and refusal to engage with the opposition have inflamed tensions.

“The way our government communicates with the people is very violent,” Sitoe lamented. “They show no care for the regular Mozambican’s struggles.”

He remarked that addressing poverty and wider crises—such as violent extremism in northern Mozambique and kidnappings in the capital, Maputo—is vital to restoring stability.

The absence of meaningful dialogue or reforms risks further escalation. “We’ve never had peaceful demonstrations here because the police attack demonstrators,” Sitoe noted.

Uncertain future?

Sitoe foresees further unrest.

“Based on how the government has tackled this, the problem will only escalate because we aren’t having honest conversations,” Sitoe said.

Mozambicans are desperate for assurances that the future will be brighter. Yet, Sitoe warned, the government’s inability to convey hope or address grievances means the outlook remains bleak.

For Sitoe, the president and government’s policy is to avoid talking about the core issue.

“They will do everything except talk about the problem and not listen to the grievances of the people or to do something to assure the people that things will improve.”

Sitoe added that what people need the most right now is to know that next year and the following years will be better than this one.

“Based on the inability to convey this message, we can assume that things will only escalate in the coming days,” he said.