Can Venezuela’s fractured opposition replace Maduro's government?

The US is trying to prop up a new government in Venezuela by legitimising the opposition and discrediting President Nicolas Maduro's democratically elected government. 

But at a closer look, the opposition Washington counts on is not united but rather made up of a fractured bunch of political parties with diverging goals.  

The opposition to Maduro's government is unable to settle on matters such as taking part in elections, negotiating with the government, and whether to support the potential military intervention floated implicitly by outside powers.

Three of the four original members of the of the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) opposition alliance belong to the association of political parties known as Socialist International, for example, but that common affinity has not prevented the alliance’s break-up.

What actually fractures the Venezuelan opposition is both personal and political rivalries; and party leaders generally pick the strategy that seems to offer the best opportunity for personal and/or party advancement, forging alliances for the same reason. A perceived history of past betrayals often hinders unity talks.

Who is the opposition in Venezuela?

Venezuela's opposition alliance, the MUD, launched in 2009 and the group is composed of about 20 parties from the centre-left, left, centre and right-wing.

The MUD took control of the National Assembly, for the first time in January 2015, after elections the previous month won the alliance 112 seats in the 167-strong body.

What does the opposition want?

The only thing that unites MUD members is their opposition to Maduro. The bloc initially demanded a re-election, but ever since Maduro tightened control over the administration, the MUD keeps changing its political goals. 

Among its current demands are restoring the power of the National Assembly, the release of hundreds of political prisoners, and respecting the constitution. 

Internal divisions

The MUD has been fractured over strategy, policy, engagement with the government and how far to take protests that have been marked by violence on all sides. Ever since the National Assembly was weakened, before being stripped of its powers, the MUD has increasingly transformed into a protest movement.

Mass demonstrations largely withered after the newly-created Constituent Assembly took over in August, with many people opting to find food and basic necessities rather than take to the streets.

Who Is Juan Guaido?

Guaido was a founding member of the Popular Will (VP) party in 2009 and he became the youngest person ever to preside over the legislature on January 5, 2019.

In the 2010 parliamentary elections, Guaido was elected to a seat as an alternate federal deputy, and was elected to a full seat in the National Assembly in the 2015 elections with 97,492 votes (26.01 percent) of the vote.

Later on, Guaido was elected president of the National Assembly of Venezuela in December 2018, and was sworn in on January 5, January 2019. On January 23, he swore himself in as interim head of state with the support of nations around the region.

What is happening right now?

The dispute in the country came to a head in early 2019, when the National Assembly of Venezuela stated that the results of the election were invalid and declared Juan Guaido as the acting president, citing several clauses of the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution. National protests were then organised by the opposition against Maduro’s election and his ruling coalition.

Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido declared himself interim president on Wednesday, winning backing from Washington and parts of Latin America.

Maduro announced he was breaking off diplomatic ties with the US after President Donald Trump recognised Guaido as the "interim president".

Most Latin American nations recognised the 35-year-old opposition leader of Venezuela's National Assembly as interim president as did the US and Canada.

"I've decided to break diplomatic and political relations with the imperialist government of the United States," said Maduro to thousands of supporters in Caracas.

"Get out! Leave Venezuela, here there's dignity, damn it," he said. 

However, the US State Department hit back, saying Maduro has no authority to sever relations with the US.

"The United States does not recognise the Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela," a statement said.

"Accordingly the United States does not consider former president Nicolas Maduro to have the legal authority to break diplomatic relations with the United States or to declare our diplomats persona non grata."

The statement added that Washington, which backed Guaido's decision to proclaim himself acting president, welcomed the new leader's decision to maintain diplomatic relations with all countries.