Israel could face four possible scenarios for forming its next government if neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot secures enough support to build a governing coalition after Tuesday’s general elections, an expert on Israeli politics said.
Opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, nor Eisenkot, leader of Yashar party, is expected to reach the 61-seat threshold required to form a government with their respective blocs.
Israel is treated as a single electoral district, with voters electing members of the 120-seat Knesset by voting for party lists.
The prime minister is not directly elected but must be a member of parliament capable of securing the confidence of at least 61 lawmakers.
Since no single Israeli party typically wins a parliamentary majority, governments are generally formed through coalitions of parties with broadly compatible political positions.
Speaking to Anadolu, Wadie Abu Nassar outlined four possible scenarios following the elections.
“The first scenario is that Netanyahu or Eisenkot manages to form a regular government through a coalition with parties that win seats in the polls,” Abu Nassar said.
He described that scenario as “difficult” in light of polls showing neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition camp reaching 61 seats.
“Still, this scenario cannot be completely ruled out, particularly amid reports that Eisenkot is trying to win over lawmakers from the Haredi parties to support a government he would form,” he added.
Minority government
“The second scenario would involve Eisenkot forming a minority government that relies on Arab votes in the Knesset without those parties joining the government,” Abu Nassar said.
Arab parties in Israel have said they could provide Eisenkot with a parliamentary “safety net” in exchange for guarantees for Arab citizens, aimed at preventing the current government — which includes far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — from remaining in office as a caretaker administration.
The Joint List, an alliance of three Arab parties led by Yousef Jabareen, and the United Arab List, headed by Mansour Abbas, have expressed willingness to support an Eisenkot-led government from outside the coalition.
In return, they have sought measures including halting home demolitions, combating crime in Arab communities and opening a political horizon with Palestinians.
Eisenkot has not taken a definitive position on the proposal, though he has previously ruled out including Arab parties in a coalition he seeks to form.
Polls suggest that 13 electoral lists could enter the Knesset, including two representing Arab citizens, who make up around 20% of Israel’s population of more than 10 million.
The Arab parties are projected to win a combined 14 to 15 seats, according to opinion polls.
National unity government
Abu Nassar said the third scenario would be the formation of a national unity government bringing together Netanyahu, Eisenkot and other Israeli parties.
“There are discussions in Israeli circles that if the elections reach a deadlock, meaning neither bloc obtains the required majority to form a government, a national unity government could be formed,” he said.
He said Israeli President Isaac Herzog has been pushing such an option to avoid another election, while reports indicate that figures close to US President Donald Trump also favour the scenario.
“Under such an arrangement, the government would include Likud under Netanyahu and Yashar under Eisenkot, along with other parties, while excluding Ben-Gvir’s far-right Jewish Power party and Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism party,” Abu Nassar said.
The main obstacle, he added, is that opposition parties reject joining a government with Netanyahu or one led by him, even though he appears open to a unity government in which he and Eisenkot would rotate as prime minister, provided Netanyahu serves first.
“Opposition parties do not necessarily reject joining Likud in a unity government but object to Netanyahu personally,” Abu Nassar said.
“Some Israeli circles have raised the possibility of Herzog granting Netanyahu a pardon in corruption cases against him in return for his withdrawal from political life,” he added.
Netanyahu has said that he would not leave politics even if he loses the elections.
Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three separate corruption cases, known as Cases 1000, 2000 and 4000.
Separately, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on Nov. 21, 2024, accusing him of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, where more than 74,000 people have been killed in a brutal offensive since October 2023.
Ben-Gvir has also claimed that Netanyahu has avoided appearing in photographs with him because he is seeking a possible unity government with Eisenkot.
New elections
The fourth scenario would see neither Netanyahu nor the opposition succeeding in forming a government, leaving the current Cabinet in place as a caretaker government until another election is held several months later.
“In the fourth scenario, elections would be repeated after several months, and until then the current government would remain as a caretaker government until a new one is formed,” Abu Nassar said.
“This is the scenario Netanyahu would prefer and work toward if he fails to form a government,” he added.
Under Israeli law, Knesset elections are normally held every four years.
The elections are widely seen as crucial for the political future of Netanyahu, 76, who is standing trial on corruption charges, including bribery, fraud and breach of trust, which could result in imprisonment if convicted.
Netanyahu has also been wanted by the International Criminal Court since 2024 over war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Palestinians during Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, where more than 74,000 people have been killed since October 2023.
