Nearly half of German voters believe Chancellor Friedrich Merz will no longer be in office by the end of the year, according to a YouGov poll published on Thursday, as his Christian Democratic Union faces two closely watched state elections on Sunday.
The representative survey found that 48 percent of respondents did not expect Merz to remain chancellor through December, while 31 percent expected him to stay in office and 21 percent were undecided.
The poll surveyed 1,611 people, according to German media reports.
The findings come as the CDU faces difficult races in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, following a major setback in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month.
CDU faces pressure in eastern states
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU is polling at around 6 percent, close to the 5 percent threshold required to enter the state parliament.
The latest projection by ZDF put the SPD at 37 percent and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 36 percent.
The CDU also faces a challenging contest in Berlin, where recent polling has put it around 20 percent, with the Left Party narrowly ahead. Local issues, particularly housing and rents, are major campaign concerns in the capital.
The pressure follows the CDU's poor showing in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD won 43.8 percent of the vote and the CDU took 17.2 percent.
Merz has rejected speculation that he could leave office early. He said on Tuesday that he was elected for a four-year term and remained determined to lead Germany through what he described as a difficult period.
What could happen if Merz faces party pressure?
Poor results in Sunday's elections could intensify internal debate within the CDU over Merz's leadership, although the elections themselves would not trigger a national vote.
Senior CDU figures are expected to meet on Monday, followed by a meeting of lawmakers from the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, two days later.
If Merz were to step down as CDU leader or chancellor, Germany's Bundestag could elect a new chancellor without holding a nationwide election.
The state contests therefore carry implications beyond the regional governments being elected, as Merz's coalition faces questions over its support and the CDU seeks to respond to the AfD's growing electoral strength in eastern Germany.
Recent national polling has put the AfD ahead of the CDU/CSU bloc.
