The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached 30 percent support in a nationwide poll for the first time and now leads Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives by 10 percentage points, according to a GMS survey published on Monday.
Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), dropped to 20 percent — the lowest level recorded by pollster GMS for the conservatives.
Together with the Social Democrats at 11 percent, the chancellor’s coalition would not have enough support to form a majority in parliament if elections were held this week.
GMS last surveyed the same question in late July.
Since then the AfD, which campaigns against immigration, has gained 2 points and Merz’s CDU/CSU “Grand Coalition” has lost 3.
The Greens rose 1 point to 14 percent. The Left Party also gained 1 point to 11 percent. The liberal Free Democrats slipped to 4 percent and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) stood at 3 percent, both below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament.
AfD’s win could trigger snap elections
The figures mark a sharp shift from the February 23 2025 federal election, when Chancellor Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU alliance won 28.5 percent and the AfD 20.8 percent.
The poll comes ahead of regional elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin on Sunday.
Those votes are also seen as a test of Chancellor Merz’s political future after the conservatives’ heavy defeat to the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right party won 43.8 percent on September 6.
Speculation has grown for weeks in the media about a possible change of chancellor, with North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wuest (CDU) named as a potential successor.
A leadership fight in the Christian Democrats after the state elections would not, by itself, dissolve the Bundestag or trigger a snap election. If party pressure forces Merz out, parliament could elect a new chancellor without a national vote.
