The Strait of Hormuz could become “redundant” within five years as Gulf countries invest in alternative logistics routes and energy infrastructure amid the Iran war, HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery said on Tuesday.
The conflict has highlighted the world’s reliance on the strategic waterway, through which about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade previously passed.
Gulf nations are being pushed to invest in pipelines connecting energy production sites to ports, helping the region withstand the economic fallout from the conflict, Elhedery said at the HSBC Future Forum in Dubai.
“We do see this region being able to recover and then continue growing. It will mean a lot of investment,” he said.
“Of course, we do wish and hope to see a resolution to the conflict ... But Hormuz, probably in five years’ time, may become redundant,” he added.
Investments amid uncertainty
The Middle East, North Africa and Türkiye have $872 billion in individual project packages within a wider $1.4 trillion pipeline of planned infrastructure projects yet to be awarded, HSBC said in a report on Monday, citing data from Dubai-based market intelligence platform MEED.
A recent HSBC survey of more than 1,600 business leaders and around 820 global institutional investors found that respondents continued to view the Gulf as an attractive investment destination.
However, the World Bank last week forecast that the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region would contract by 1.3 percent this year because of the war, after growing by 3.3 percent in 2025. It projected a strong but uneven rebound in 2027.
Elhedery was among the global financiers expected to attend Saudi Arabia’s flagship investment conference, which was scheduled for next week but postponed to 2027 on Monday following deadly strikes in Riyadh by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militia.
