Analysis: General election voting ends, will India get to see PM Modi 3.0?

As India's six-week election concluded on Saturday, exit polls predicted Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to extend his power with a third consecutive term.

According to 12 exit polls from various media outlets, BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, where 272 is needed for a simple majority.

Exit polls predict election outcomes before official results. Official results will be announced on June 4.

After resounding victories in 2014 and 2019, Modi was looking to be elected for a historic third term in office this year, and now most pollsters say this could be a reality when the results are announced.

However, there are great variations in the number of seats each agency has forecast for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Dainik Bhaskar, a local news outlet, had one of the most conservative estimates- 281-350 seats for the NDA.

Exit polls conducted by Axis My India for the India Today group and CNX for India TV, predict up to 401 seats for the NDA.

NDTV, a local news channel, has estimated an average of the 12 polls, which project 365 seats for the BJP-led NDA, and 146 seats for the multi-party opposition led by the Indian National Congress, called the INDIA bloc.

Experts and analysts had already predicted a landslide win for Modi in the run-up to the election.

However, as the elections began, lower voter turnout, gains by the multi-party opposition, and voter concerns about unemployment and price increases led to more cautious estimates.

If the results on June 4 echo the exit poll trends, it would mean that the BJP-led NDA would have to expand their influence. In 2019, the coalition had won 352 seats, out of which 303 were of the BJP’s.

Exit polls prediction

While Modi retains significant support, his tenure has faced concerns over democratic backsliding and minority rights.

The BJP's call for over 400 seats also alarmed the opposition, fearing the party aims to amend the Constitution with such a majority.

A two-thirds majority is needed to amend the Constitution. If the BJP-led NDA wins 365 seats as estimated, they would achieve this majority.

But exit polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, and one may only know of the true state of events when the official election results are announced on June 4.

Exit polls have predicted the election results wrong in the past. For instance, in 2004, most polls had predicted a majority for the BJP led NDA in the national elections, however, when the official results were announced, it was the Congress and its allies that formed the government.

While members of the BJP and its allied parties have welcomed the exit poll numbers, the opposition in India is already pushing back against it.

"This exit poll has been prepared in the BJP office," Sanjay Singh, a member of the Upper House of Parliament and the Aam Aadmi Party, which is part of the INDIA bloc, told the Indian news agency, ANI.

"The 'Janta ka exit poll' (the people’s exit poll) based on the figures shared by INDIA alliance leaders in today's meeting says that we will win more than 295 seats.”