Are US and China on collision course? They may be in Pakistan's Balochistan

On the night of October 6, a powerful explosion ripped through busy traffic near the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, Pakistan’s largest hub for domestic and international flights.

A suicide bomber belonging to the banned Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) rammed his explosive-rigged car into a convoy of Chinese engineers who were coming out of the airport. Two Chinese nationals were killed.

BLA, a separatist group active in the restive Balochistan province, has been behind deadly terrorist attacks in Pakistan. It has claimed responsibility for multiple bombings, including the one on October 6 in which Chinese nationals were the primary target.

“These separatists don’t want to see Pakistan progress economically. China has invested heavily in Pakistan, especially in Gwadar and the CPEC project,” says Haris Nawaz, a security analyst and a former army brigadier.

The multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. China has financed power plants, highways, and roads as part of the project. The Gwadar seaport in Balochistan, operated by China Overseas Port Holding Company, has been at the centre of bilateral cooperation.

While the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan goes back decades, it has become particularly threatening in recent years as militants carry out suicide attacks with increasing frequency.

Pakistan accuses India of backing Baloch insurgents and has provided what Islamabad claims is evidence, including the public testimony of an alleged Indian intelligence agent, Kulbhushan Jadhav. India denies the charges.

The insurgents, including the BLA, claim they are killing Chinese engineers because they don’t want Beijing to take part in developments in Balochistan - the developments from which they allege that Baloch civilians have been excluded.

However, security experts who have studied the insurgency don’t buy the reasoning of the Baloch insurgents, especially because they have avoided attacking American and European companies, which are also active in Balochistan.

“It is no coincidence that BLA has targeted mainly Chinese assets and personnel but not North Atlantic countries’ projects such as Reko Diq,” says Ameem Lutfi, who teaches at the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), referring to the gold and copper mine operated by Toronto-based Barrick Gold.

“It is also not a coincidence that the comparisons that Baloch groups have increasingly started to make to highlight their plight are with Uighurs in China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region and not Palestinians or Kashmiris, the more easily understandable and emotive conflicts.”

Since 2018, BLA has targeted Chinese nationals in Pakistan at least eight times, including the suicide attack at the Chinese Confucius Center in Karachi in which three Chinese instructors were killed.

Baloch militants have desperately tried to portray their attacks as part of the struggle for the rights of people in the Balochistan province.

But they haven’t had much success in garnering international support, says Lutfi. “They largely have, as a result, had to turn to some of the more hawkish (and often Islamophobic) groups in the US, Europe, and even India.”

However, the situation might change as the US-China trade and semiconductor war deepens and morphs into a wider struggle for influence in developing countries.

Lutfi says lately, human rights groups based in the West have started taking more interest in the demands of the Baloch insurgents. However, largely, this stems from “the Western imperative to impede Chinese projects abroad.”

BLA knows that killing Chinese engineers and officials will dent Pakistan’s image as a safe place for investment at a time when Islamabad desperately needs foreign exchange to shore up its reserves.

“If the state is seen as unable to protect its closest perceived bilateral ally (China), it will impede FDI and business opportunities across the country,” says Zeeshan Salahuddin, the director of the Centre for Global and Regional Connectivity at Pakistani think tank, Tabadlab.

“This will have an impact on long-term economic viability and global integration. The BLA is a key threat to Pakistan's long-term economic security.”

A deadly nexus

Pakistan shares a porous border with Iran and Afghanistan. Islamabad accuses India of using the neighbouring countries to train, equip and finance Baloch separatists.

“It’s a war that cannot be conducted without foreign support,” says Dr Maria Sultan, the Chairperson of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) University.

“One terrorist activity can easily cost $50,000. How can a terrorist who doesn’t even have shoes to wear afford that? And it’s not just the guy who blows himself up. There’s someone else handling the explosive, financing and reconnaissance.”

Pakistani security forces are embroiled in deadly skirmishes with terrorists of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group that has caused mayhem in the country's northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province along the towns that border Afghanistan.

“There is an established nexus between the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan and the BLA. The former operates unimpeded in Afghanistan and is ideologically driven to destabilise Pakistan through terror attacks, particularly on law enforcement,” says Tabadlab’s Salahuddin.

“This nexus now gives the BLA strategic and tactical advantages it did not have before.”

Experts say Washington has conveniently ignored the threat posed by BLA to Pakistan’s stability because of its own strategic interest, which right now aims to contain China’s influence.

“While the US may continue to back military operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa against (TTP) militants, it will not lend the same levels of political or monetary support for operations against Baloch separatists as China stands to benefit the most from it,” says LUMS’s Lutfi.