India's power struggle erupts: Kumar, Naidu hold keys to next government

Even as India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed victory amid vote counting, the country's electorate has delivered a severe blow to his leadership by denying his right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] an absolute majority.

The unexpected outcome, driven by widespread discontent over soaring unemployment, inflation, and Modi's polarising politics, means the ruling BJP has fallen short of 32 seats to form the next government.

On its own, BJP has secured 240 seats in India's Lok Sabha, or the lower house of Parliament, and must now depend on coalition allies to surpass the 272-seat majority threshold required to rule the country.

The BJP with its allies, in a coalition known as the National Democratic Alliance [NDA], was projected to win around 282 seats.

BJP may now be "heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, which makes them critical players who we can expect will extract their pound of flesh, both in terms of policymaking as well as government formation," Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the AP news agency.

And it is this scenario that elevates the roles of two key figures — Nitish Kumar, chief minister of northern Bihar state and leader of Janata Dal United [JDU], and Nara Chandrababu Naidu, chief of Telugu Desam Party [TDP] of southern Andhra Pradesh state.

In the high-stakes arena of Indian politics, Kumar and Naidu have emerged as pivotal kingmakers, wielding significant influence with their combined tally of 28 seats.

Meanwhile India's opposition coalition — known by its initials I.N.D.I.A. and led by Congress party — which is projected to win 232 seats, is in active courtship with both leaders.

This could lead to an alternate scenario where these kingmakers could assume even greater roles, potentially reshaping India's new political landscape.

Tipping point

Kumar's JDU and Naidu's TDP have a history of strategic alliances, making them seasoned veterans in coalition politics. Although their recent re-commitment to BJP underscores their importance as crutches to Modi's coalition government, the allure of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is potent.

The opposition coalition, currently 40 seats shy of a majority, is actively courting Kumar and Naidu — both known for their secular credentials — recognising that their support could be the tipping point needed to dethrone both Modi and his right-wing BJP.

Former Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray's comments on Tuesday reflected the I.N.D.I.A bloc's strategy: engaging with NDA partners who have shown discontent with the current regime's polarising politics.

Both Kumar and Naidu have previously expressed disdain for the BJP's polarising politics, suggesting a better potential ideological alignment with the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.

"The INDIA bloc is probing the possibilities of negotiation with Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu," Thackeray, a key leader of the I.N.D.I.A. combine, told media.

'Dislike for vendetta politics'

The opposition combination, led by a resurgent Congress party, offers Kumar and Naidu not just key positions of power but also a platform to influence national policies significantly.

"Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu share a dislike for vendetta politics, which could lead them away from the BJP-led NDA," Manoj Kumar Jha, national spokesperson of Rashtriya Janata Dal, another key part of the opposition coalition, told journalists.

As calls grow for Kumar and Naidu to switch sides, the leaders could demand top jobs or strategic roles that align with their political ambitions and state interests. I.N.D.I.A. grouping's overtures to Kumar and Naidu could therefore be a tipping point.

The next 12 hours are going to be critical in this regard. As Rahul Gandhi, leader of the liberal Congress party, indicated, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc meeting on Wednesday will be crucial in determining future political alignments.

"We will hold a meeting with our alliance partners... tomorrow. These questions will be raised and answered there... I respect our alliance partners, and we won't make any statements without asking our alliance partners," Gandhi said when asked about his plans.