Muslim welfare foremost, key allies tell Modi as he begins new stint as PM

Narendra Modi began a rare third stint as Prime Minister of India, with his key allies tempering his Hindu majoritarian agenda by insisting that their Muslim-centric programmes will continue to ensure the welfare of the country's biggest minority community.

Modi took the oath of office on Sunday as the head of a 72-member ministry that includes two members each from the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal-United (JDU) – whose support is crucial for Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Though portfolios have yet to be distributed, it is understood that the BJP will keep key ministries like home, finance, and defence, as Modi found a way to keep his party at the top of his coalition government for the time being.

However, there was no Muslim member in Modi’s ministry though this may change later.

When the Indian election results were announced on June 4, Modi and his BJP were in for a rude shock. For the first time since 2014, the saffron party did not have the numbers to form the government independently.

In the 543-member strong Lower House of Parliament, a party or group of allied parties need a majority of 272 seats to form the government. In 2014, the BJP had won 282 seats, which improved to 303 in 2019. However, this year, the BJP only won 240 seats.

This meant that, for the first time since Modi came to power with a thumping majority in 2014, he was dependent on his coalition partners to realise his bid for a historic third term in office.

The TDP and the JD(U) were the kingmakers, as they had the most seats after the BJP in their bloc of parties called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with 16 and 12 seats, respectively.

This is why, as a senior journalist who has reported on the BJP for over two decades explained, the TDP and JD(U) were offered two ministerial berths each. In previous Modi governments, allies were given only one ministerial berth each, as a token representation.

Muslim welfare

After running a high-voltage campaign targeting Muslims, who make up about 14 percent of the country’s population, the BJP has suddenly found itself at the mercy of allies who have been vocal about their support for the community.

Top officials of the BJP, including the PM, during the election campaign had repeatedly claimed that if the Opposition were voted to power, they would provide more reservations to Muslims, a policy that the BJP seemed to be dead against.

In the eastern state of Bihar, for instance, Modi had said, “They (Opposition) want to snatch the SC, ST, OBC (Other Backward Class) reservations from you for the jihadis (those who pursue militant Islamic movement). For this, they want to change the Constitution… but for it not to happen, you have to have a strong government at the Centre.”

However, Nara Lokesh, a TDP legislator and the son of the party chief Chandrababu Naidu, said that their party would continue the reservations for Muslims in their state of Andhra Pradesh.

“It's a fact that the minorities continue to suffer and that they have the lowest per capita income. As a government, it is my responsibility to bring them out of poverty. So whatever decisions I take are not for appeasement, but to bring them out of poverty," he told the Indian television news channel NDTV.

Similarly, while there have been global alarm bells raised about the treatment of Muslims and minorities in India under Modi’s rule, the JD(U)’s national spokesperson KC Tyagi said that “while we are there [in power with the BJP], no anti-Muslim, anti-minority campaign will be run.”

TDP spokesperson Jyothsna Tirunagari told TRT World that they had taken a stand on not compromising on Muslim reservations and that if they faced any issues or a “difference in opinion,” they would “have a negotiation and we will figure a way out.”

Similarly, a JD(U) spokesperson Satya Prakash Mishra said that their party did not support any communal politics and that the policy of the NDA alliance was the “development of all sections of society”.

The dissonance in the notions of the coalition partners is not lost on people. Veteran journalist Arati Jerath said that the BJP would have to dial down on the divisive rhetoric if Modi wishes to run a smooth coalition,

“If he (Modi) wants to give an impression of a stable government, he will have to not allow discordant voices,” she told TRT World while adding that the BJP will have to be much more “moderate” now.

“The message from the voters is that they are tired of the Hindu-Muslim politics too… I think the Hindu-Muslim politics has played itself out,” she added.

The BJP may also be acutely aware of the “adjustments” they would have to make.

“When Atal (Bihari Vajpayee) became PM also, there were multiple parties in the coalition and we had to compromise on some of our issues like Ram Mandir. We will have to adjust at times, they will have to adjust at other times,” senior BJP leader Prabhat Jha told TRT World.

BJP’s bargaining power

Though earlier reports suggested that TDP and JDU were aware of their bargaining power and had demanded up to six ministerial berths, they had to contend with the two posts offered.

“Modi must have convinced them somehow. Maybe it was said they will take care of their interests,” Jerath told TRT World.

The senior journalist also said that both Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah, “drive a hard bargain,” and neither of them would like to look “too weak”.

“And it also depends on the portfolios (offered to the allies). What is more important is the portfolios, rather than the number of berths they are given,” she told TRT World.

The heads of TDP and JD(U), Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, respectively, are both coalition-era politicians who know how to negotiate better terms for themselves. However, Jerath said that their negotiating power would have been limited by the fact that the multiparty opposition still only had about 230 seats.

“I think at the moment, it was also about where will they walk out and go. It's not like the numbers are burgeoning on the other side or that they can go and form the government on the other side,” she explained.

When contacted by TRT World, the TDP and JD(U) spokespersons denied that either party had to “compromise”.

“We have not demanded anything except for the development of Andhra Pradesh… Our foremost point is the development of Andhra Pradesh. Chandrababu Naidu would not be bargaining for ministerial berths, what he will bargain for is development,” Tirunagari said.

Similarly, Mishra also told TRT World that they did not bargain. “What we were offered, we accepted,” he said.

However, in its third term, the Modi government has had to keep many more allies happy, as is seen by the size of the council of ministers sworn in along with Modi.

“If you compare with Modi 1.0 and 2.0, this time there are more allies and fewer members of the BJP,” said the senior journalist who wished to remain unnamed.

What changes for Muslims?

However, this gives little solace to those like Ziya Us Salam, the author of ‘Being Muslim in Hindu India’, who claimed that “nothing has changed.”

“There is not a single Muslim member of Parliament from any of the NDA parties – be it BJP, the TDP or the JDU. Everything is just the same,” he told TRT world, adding that the only thing gone was the “fear of Modi”.

He argued that it was still too early to say if the situation for Muslims would improve in the country, and any notion that things have improved could just be a perception.

“BJP’s core ideology is anti-minority...The only joy is that Modi is cut to size, and the BJP does not have the majority,” he said.