Pakistan elections: possible scenarios, potential coalition & court battle

After a tense election in Pakistan ended without a clear victor, political parties are rushing to cobble together a coalition government before February 29 when the National Assembly of new lawmakers meets for the first time.

No single party has won a simple majority in the February 8 general election. A simple majority means a party winning more than 50 percent of seats in the National Assembly.

The constitution says the president of Pakistan must summon a session of the legislature within three weeks of the general election to vote one of the newly elected representatives as prime minister for a five-year term.

“I think all parties, except the PTI, will join hands to form a coalition government,” says political analyst Zaigham Khan while referring to Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) as the only political party expected to sit on the opposition benches.

Several Pakistani media outlets are describing Shehbaz Sharif as the top contender for the prime ministerial position. Analyst Zaigham echoed a similar view.

Shehbaz Sharif, who is a senior leader of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, recently served as prime minister for 16 months after a parliamentary vote of no confidence ousted Khan from power in April 2022.

After assuming the top office, Shehbaz Sharif inherited a difficult economic scenario, prompting him to adopt austerity measures such as removing subsidies for electricity consumers. He is the brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

The largest group of winners in the National Assembly consists of so-called independent candidates who won their seats with the explicit backing of PTI’s leader Khan. PTI itself wasn’t allowed to contest the polls under a single electoral symbol on a legal pretext.

According to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), independent candidates have provisionally won 101 of the 264 general seats.

It’s unclear how many of these 101 candidates will stick to the PTI-backed candidate for the premier’s position once the maiden session of the National Assembly gets underway.

Some of the independent candidates who ran their electoral campaigns with PTI backing have already switched sides and pledged their allegiance to the PML-N.

Speaking to TRT World, lawyer Abdul Moiz Jaferii says PTI-backed winners are affiliated with the party and shouldn’t be considered independent in the literal sense.

As such, they’re bound to face disqualification under the prevailing law if they vote against their party's direction, he says. “The PTI should take this issue to the ECP.”

The provisional results show that PML-N controls the second biggest bloc of candidates with 75 seats in the National Assembly.

Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari is the third biggest parliamentary group with 54 seats.

Smaller parties won the rest of the seats except two constituencies in which the regulator either withheld the result or postponed the election.

Once the ECP notifies the final results, independent members of the National Assembly (MNAs) will have three days to either join a party or retain their independent status.

Based on the final tally, each political party gets to induct additional MNAs on reserved seats for women and minorities. Once the total number of seats increases to 336, the legislature votes for the leader of the house. The prime ministerial candidate receiving a simple majority of 169 votes will become prime minister.

The PML-N and the PPP have formally begun negotiations to set up a coalition government in the centre.

Real king-makers: independents

The PTI-backed candidates are expected to join a party – one that preferably has a small parliamentary presence in its own right – to claim their share of the reserved seats meant for women and minorities.

The PTI-backed winners can, of course, choose to stay independent but that’ll weaken their electoral strength during the election for the prime minister.

Reports suggest the PTI is considering joining hands with the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen Pakistan or the Pakistan Muslim League (Zia-ul-Haq Shaheed) as they enjoy a token presence in the National Assembly with one seat each.

The provisional seat distribution makes the formation of a coalition government a foregone conclusion. Pakistan has had coalition governments after each of the last three elections in 2008, 2013, and 2018.

Coalition governments often trade long-term economic objectives for short-term political stability. The South Asian economy has grown in fits and starts amid repeated bailouts by the International Monetary Fund.

The PTI has ruled out negotiations to form a coalition government with both the PML-N and the PPP, claiming that it’ll rather sit on the opposition benches if its “majority” isn’t respected.

One of its key leaders also claimed that another 50 PTI-backed independent candidates will be declared winners as they plan to contest the provisional poll results. With reserved seats in its bag, his party will have the backing of 170 MNAs, making the PTI the largest political force in the house, he says.

Future of Imran Khan

Khan remains in jail after three back-to-back convictions in as many cases days before the general election. He was declared ineligible to contest the polls and his party had to field its candidates under a multitude of electoral symbols to circumvent a legal quagmire.

“Khan’s party has survived. It’ll play the role of a daunting opposition in the centre and Punjab, which is the largest province. As for Khan himself, he’ll be in a better bargaining position. It may take some time, but he’ll soon be out of jail,” says Zaigham Khan (no relation to Imran Khan).

Khan’s reversal of fortune has surprised many as he won an unlikely electoral victory despite a torrent of court cases amid a nationwide crackdown against his party for almost a year.

Jaferii says Khan’s political career isn’t over by any means.

“There’s no last word in politics, especially Pakistani politics. He’s got the right to appeal. His cases will likely get thrown out on merit.”