The other May 14 elections: What you need to know about Thailand's polls

Thailand will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, May 14, after nearly a decade of a government led or backed by its royalist military after a coup in 2014.

The elections come after Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn endorsed the dissolution of parliament in March with the backing of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, who has been in power since leading the 2014 power grab.

Shortly after parliament was dissolved, Prayut declared that he will seek re-election, although he is facing more headwinds than when he first ran in 2019 with the resurgence of a strong opposition.

Prayuth, a 69-year-old former general, has promised to build a new political climate that does away with decades of conflict.

The polls would be the second since the 2014 coup and the first since young Thai protesters took to the streets of Bangkok in 2020 to call for reforms and more freedom.

Below is a rundown of what to expect.

What's being decided?

Roughly 52 million of Thailand's 65 million population are eligible to cast votes for members of a new 500-seat house of representatives for the next four years.

Voters have two ballots, one for a local constituency representative and the other for their preferred party at the national level. There are 400 seats for winning constituency candidates and 100 party seats allocated on a proportional representation basis.

Dissatisfaction with the incumbent prime minister is high due in part to a slumping economy and his government’s mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Weariness and even anger at the military’s habitual interference in politics are major factors. Thailand has had more than a dozen coups since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932, the last one in 2014 carried out by Prayut when he was the army commander. Prayut’s government curbed democracy and prosecuted dissenters.

How will a leader be chosen?

Parties winning more than 25 seats can nominate their prime ministerial candidate, although it is likely parties will strike deals between them to back certain candidates.

Those candidates will be put to a vote, likely in August, in the bicameral legislature comprised of a newly-elected 500-seat lower house and a 250-seat Senate comprised of members appointed by a military junta.

To become prime minister, the winning candidate must have the votes of more than half of the combined houses, or 375 members.

Who are the main contenders?

The election will be the latest bout in a long-running battle between parties backed by a conservative establishment with connections to the military and key institutions, and a progressive, pro-business opposition with a track record of wooing working class voters and winning every election in the past two decades.

Pheu Thai, a party controlled by the billionaire Shinawatra family, has a big lead in opinion polls as it did in previous elections, followed by another opposition party, Move Forward, which is seeking to mobilise youth voters.

They will go up against two parties led by former army chiefs involved in coups, incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth of the newly-formed United Thai Nation party and his mentor Prawit Wongsuwan of the ruling Palang Pracharat party.

Both parties draw backing from the urban middle classes and are regarded as representing the interests of Thailand's nexus of old money aristocrats and military elites who have long influenced politics.

An important contender is Bhumjaithai, a regional heavyweight whose seats could be crucial in determining who forms a government. The party's stature has grown with its successful push to make Thailand Asia's first country to legalise the sale of cannabis.

“This election is the most important in contemporary Thai politics because it’s an election that’s going to determine Thailand’s political future,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said in an interview with the Associated Press news agency.

When will the results be known?

Voting ends at 5 pm (1000 GMT) local time on Sunday and the election commission says unofficial results should be released that same evening. It aims to certify 95 percent of the votes or 475 of the 500 seats, within 60 days, or by July 13.

The commission and an a lliance of media organisations are expected to provide updates on the vote count in the hours after polling stations close.

What happens after that?

It might be weeks, possibly several months, before Thailand gets an idea of what it's next government will look like, depending on the outcome of the election.

An outright majority or even a landslide may not be enough to form a government and alliances with other parties will most likely be required.

Thailand's constitution was re-drafted by the military in 2017 in what many experts say was an attempt to neuter the power of parties that win elections. It prescribed an appointed Senate, of which the majority of members have sided in votes with the ruling, military-backed parties.

In the 2019 elections, the Senate voted as a bloc, unanimously backing Prayut. This time, a party that wins a clear majority of House seats still might need at least 376, or 75 percent plus one, of the votes in the 500-member lower house if its prime minister candidate was opposed in the Senate.

If the leading Pheu Thai party lands in such a position, it could find coalition partners among parties that win some House seats. It could also nominate one of its other candidates for prime minister, most likely 60-year-old Srettha Thavisin, who is not burdened with the Shinawatra name that is anathema to the Senate’s conservatives.

Most intriguingly, Pheu Thai could ally with another former general, 77-year-old Prawit Wongsuwan, who has been Prayut’s ambitious deputy prime minister and is this year’s prime minister candidate for the Palang Pracharath Party.

He and his party are polling badly, but his presence in government might reassure some senators. Such an alliance would see m like a deviance from Pheu Thai’s platform, but could be sold to supporters on the basis that Prawit was not actively involved in plotting the 2014 coup.