'The purge': Why is Xi shaking up China's elite nuclear arsenal unit?

China announced earlier this week that it had replaced the leadership of its elite military unit, Rocket Force, which oversees its conventional and nuclear arsenal, amid media reports of a corruption probe involving its former chief.

Abrupt and cloaked in secrecy, the dismissal of Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao, who has not been seen in public for weeks, quickly drew comparisons to the firing in mid-July of Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who had also disappeared from the public for a month before he was replaced by veteran diplomat Wang Yi.

In its report announcing the reshuffle at the Rocket Force unit, the state media Xinhua news agency only stated that the Chinese navy's former deputy commander, Wang Houbin, was named as the new commander, and that he has been promoted to the rank of general.

Xinhua's article on Monday also referred to Xu Xisheng as the Rocket Force's new political commissar, overseeing political discipline and execution of Communist ideology. Xu had previously served with the Southern Theatre Command Air Force and was also promoted to the rank of general.

It did not mention when the two men, Wang and Xu, had taken up their new roles at the unit officially referred to as People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). But the new leadership announcement came as the Chinese military celebrated its 96th founding anniversary on August 1.

The Rocket Force is a relatively new unit under the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Its creation was announced in January 2016 after a major reshuffle of China's military structure.

Like the removal of Qin from the foreign ministry, the Xinhua article also gave no explanation about the departure of Li and at least two of his deputies.

The lack of detailed information about such changes is not unusual in China, and as Lowy Institute's Richard Mc Gregor wrote on social media, the latest move is a "transparent example of the utter opacity of Chinese elite politics".

But citing military sources, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) newspaper had earlier reported that Li and at least two deputies were being investigated by the Central Military Commission’s anti-corruption unit.

Citing Indian intelligence sources, India Today, meanwhile reported as early as July 19 that Li "had been arrested and placed under investigation."

Chinese President Xi Jinping had called last week for increased oversight of the military and the construction of a "modern system for military governance" in remarks to top leaders.

The same day, the military department responsible for buying China's weapons launched a crackdown on corruption procurement practices dating back years.

Meanwhile, the highly-respected Sino website, The China Project, described the latest firings as "a purge of corrupt generals".

It said that if the corruption investigation is true, it means that those officials involved "will almost certainly be purged".

Consolidating military powers

China's military, known as the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is directly under the Chinese Communist Party. But in recent years, Western media outlets claim that President Xi Jinping has been trying to consolidate his powers and is exerting more political control of the armed forces as its commander-in-chief, appointing officials seen as loyal to him.

As his power and influence expanded over the years, Xi had also gradually stripped away control from other CCP officials over the military, and "removed several civilian actors that historically had direct or indirect influence over the military," Roderick Lee, an expert at the China Aerospace Studies Institute, noted in a recent research paper.

After securing an unprecedented third term as the country's leader and chairman of the CCP earlier this year, Xi rolled out a new policy seeking to further modernise China's military strategy and capability by 2027.

As part of that long-term strategy, Xi had been reshuffling the military leadership, and in the process placed officials close to him in important positions.

In October 2022, for example, Xi promoted of 72-year-old General Zhang Youxi to first-ranked vice chairman of the powerful Central Committee. The general had served under Xi during his first term, overseeing the military's armaments and space exploration activities. He also helped Xi implement efforts to improve the military's combat readiness.

Xi and Zhang' go a long way as their fathers fought side-by-side against Nationalist forces during the Chinese civil war.

SCMP, however, noted that Zhang’s promotion "went against unwritten party norms" as it was previously required for members of the Central Committee members to retire before they turned 68.

Like Qin's ascent at the foreign ministry, however, Zhang's rise within the military ranks may have also been helped by their perceived proximity to the highest levers of power in Beijing - pointing to the premium placed on loyalty and trust.

China's missle arsenal and turmoil

As the overseer of China's arsenal of strategic missiles, both conventional and nuclear, the Rocket Force can both deter and strike, making the role of the unit commander as critical.

China is rapidly expanding its missile force and it is on track to deploying over 1,000 ballistic missile launchers by 2028, according to an analysis by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

In March, a US intelligence report said the Rocket Force's conventional missile capabilities "probably" pose a serious threat to US forces and bases in East Asia.

China has committed to a defensive nuclear strategy, and pledges to "no first use" of nuclear weapons. It says it will also not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states or nuclear weapon free zones.

Interestingly, neither the new Rocket Force commander, Wang Houbin, nor Xu Xisheng, the new political commissar, have deep connection to the unit as they come from the navy and the air force respectively. The reshuffle of both positions at the same time has been described as "unusual" by The China Project.

The appointment of the two outsiders also suggest that President Xi "wants to clean house and does not trust the force’s leadership," wrote the website's two China experts, Nadya Yeh and Jeremy Goldkorn.

By all accounts, Li Yuchao, the former Rocket Force commander, had also been a loyal military man, earning him quick promotions until his abrupt dismissal. It was only in early 2020 when he was named as chief of staff of the Rocket Force before being promoted to commander two years later in January 2022.

During the same two-year period, he was also promoted from lieutenant general to general. In comparison he received his previous promotion from major general to lieutenant general after a seven-year wait.

With his disappearance, some were drawing connection to the high-profile turmoil at the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

According to reports, Li’s former deputies Liu Guangbin and Zhāng Zhènzhōng have also gone missing from their regular duties. There are no confirmation, however, from state media if they have also been dismissed.

Another Rocket Force deputy commander, Wú Guóhuá, was reported to have mysteriously died in Beijing, although the development was not reported in the mainland media until July 27.

India Today, however, quoted Indian intelligence officials as saying that Wu "died under mysterious circumstances" on June 6, adding that the military "suppressed" the circumstances behind his death, which was officially reported to be caused by "cerebral haemorrhage".