What can Indonesia expect as Prabowo Subianto becomes president?

Prabowo Subianto, a former military general, is set to take office as Indonesia’s president on Sunday, following his victory in the February 14 elections. While his administration is expected to maintain course on the policies of outgoing President Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi, experts suggest that significant shifts could still occur.

Prabowo, 73, had secured 59 percent of the vote — more than 96 million ballots cast — positioning him for Indonesia's top job. Joining him in office will be Jokowi’s 37-year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who won the vice presidency.

The duo will be sworn in at a ceremony in Jakarta, marking the end of Jokowi’s decade-long leadership as he prepares to return to his hometown of Solo, Central Java.

Prabowo faces a range of challenges, from fulfilling his promise of providing free meals to addressing economic growth, military modernization, and navigating Indonesia’s role in the broader Asia-Pacific power rivalry.

Navigating a complex political landscape

Effendi Gazali, a senior political researcher, told Anadolu that Prabowo has described his administration as a continuation of Jokowi's, but he expects to see “significant” changes emerge over time.

One of the key projects Prabowo will inherit is the $32 billion plan to move Indonesia’s capital to Nusantara, aimed at reducing congestion in Jakarta. While Jokowi has pushed for its completion, Prabowo’s primary challenge will be managing the numerous political alliances he has formed.

Prabowo has garnered support from almost every party in parliament. The largest of these, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), has pledged support but has yet to sign a formal pact. Should they do so, it would mark a historic moment: Prabowo’s government would become the first in Indonesia’s post-reform era to face no opposition.

Indonesia’s bicameral parliament has 732 lawmakers from eight parties, 360 of whom are first-time members. This diverse assembly will pose a delicate balancing act for Prabowo, according to Fahri Bachmid, a member of Indonesia’s Star Central Party.

The internal challenges Prabowo will face as president will be focused on “how to manage a government system with multiple parties,” he said.

Franka Soeria, a Jakarta-based entrepreneur, noted that Prabowo’s government is expected to expand, with new ministries and agencies likely to be created. “The biggest challenge will be managing the state budget,” she told Anadolu, highlighting that much of next year’s revenue is earmarked for debt payments.

Big promises and economic hurdles

Among Prabowo’s key campaign pledges was the provision of free meals for schoolchildren — a promise that has gained attention as he prepares to take office. Experts say the program will require significant funding, potentially influencing decisions related to the development of Nusantara, which still demands a large budget for its completion.

Prabowo’s predecessor, Jokowi, spent his final weeks in office advocating for investment in the new capital, asserting that 80 percent of the groundwork has been completed. Despite these assurances, questions remain over how the incoming administration will handle the project, especially in light of other costly initiatives.

Indonesia’s role on the international stage

With over 284 million people, Muslim-majority Indonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy and boasts Southeast Asia’s largest economy. But its growing regional influence also brings challenges, particularly in balancing relationships with China and the US.

Prabowo has positioned himself as a statesman ready to engage on the international stage. During the six-month transition period, he visited key countries such as the US, China, Japan, and Russia, building ties with global leaders.

His vision, according to Gazali, is to restore Indonesia’s standing as a “great country” with its culture and economy, as well as diplomatically.

Sugiono, a senior member of Prabowo’s Gerindra Party, is widely expected to succeed Retno Marsudi as foreign minister. Marsudi, who served during Jokowi’s two terms, is set to move on to a new role at the UN.

Soeria emphasized that Prabowo has repeatedly stressed the importance of robust military, seeing it as closely linked to protecting the country’s interests and national security.

Bachmid, of Star Central Party, strikes a similar tone. Potential external challenges include “solidifying Indonesian leadership at the global level amid international dynamics through diplomacy based on free-active principles,” the politician said.

He also underlined that restoring Indonesia's “foreign political dignity as a country and sovereign in the eyes of the international community” would be another task for Prabowo.

As defense minister, Prabowo had already signaled a desire to modernize Indonesia’s military, and he is expected to increase presidential control over defense and foreign policy.

Prabowo is “smart” and speaks several languages, Gazali noted, adding that he is likely to take a more assertive approach in shaping Indonesia’s international relations.

Among Prabowo’s plans include strengthening “military powers by developing domestic plants, potentials, and skills,” Gazali said, while highlighting the diplomatic ties that Prabowo had pursued as defense minister to shore up Indonesia’s position on the world stage, particularly with China and the US, while not “depending” on either.

“So, he plays quite nicely. One enemy is too many, a million friends is never enough,” he added.

The Jokowi legacy and the role of Gibran

While Gibran’s presence as vice president signals continuity from Jokowi’s administration, experts believe his influence may be limited. “The role of vice president in Indonesia is minimum,” said Gazali, adding that Gibran’s role could help ease the transition between administrations.

Soeria largely agrees, while not ruling out the potential for friction between the two leaders. Gibran’s presence in the Prabowo administration is to “help create stability in the transition, as people see Gibran is the representative of Jokowi’s figure,” she said, adding that mutual respect and support from various segments of society could keep tensions in check.

Jokowi, widely credited for Indonesia’s rapid economic growth and a hands-on approach, will leave behind a mixed legacy. While his popularity remains high, large-scale protests last August over electoral law changes were seen as a bid to accommodate his other son Kaesang Pangarepbecome, 29, to be eligible for a regional contest in Central Java.

These issues, experts say, could provide an opportunity for Prabowo to build on the legacy while navigating the complexities of his own administration.