Why is Japan silent over US militarisation of island used to drop nukes?

In the azure waters of the Pacific, the small island of Tinian—part of the Northern Mariana Islands—holds a complex legacy. As the launch site of the atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it sits as a symbol of devastation in the collective memory of Japan and much of the world.

Today, nearly 80 years later, the island is poised once again to become a central hub in US military strategy— this time as part of an expanded Indo-Pacific defence network with a focus on countering China.

Yet, despite the rising tensions and the symbolic weight of the island’s history, protests remain curiously muted, especially in Japan.

In December 2023, reports revealed that the US Air Force planned to restore the airfield on Tinian to spread out its forces closer to China in anticipation of potential hostilities in the region. By April 2024, the US government awarded a $409 million contract to Fluor, a Texas-based engineering firm, to redevelop the airfield over the next five years.

Satellite images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 recently captured the resurgence of North Field, with cleared runways and taxiways visible by September 2024, marking the site’s renewed strategic relevance.

Analysts who follow Japan’s foreign policy say that Tokyo’s muted response to these developments reflects strategic considerations and diplomatic balancing.

“Japan will likely support the US's strategic use of Tinian as part of its Indo-Pacific defence strategy, particularly given rising tensions with China,” says Sylwia Monika Gorska, an international relations analyst, speaking to TRT World from Preston, England.

Gorska’s research at the University of Central Lancashire focuses on Japan’s nuclear policies and their impact on Japan-China relations.

“With regional tensions rising, Japan views the US military presence as essential for its security. The enhancement of US capabilities on Tinian fits into Japan's broader security strategy, despite its association with sensitive historical events,” she explains.

Although Japan appears inclined to support the US military objectives on Tinian, the island’s residents are raising concerns, as they did years before, over how these renewed military plans could reshape their island’s identity, social fabric, and ecosystem.

Jerica Aldan, a Tinian resident and an activist whose protest against the US military expansion as a high-school sophomore in 2015 made it to headlines, reflects the motivations behind her action.

“I believed strongly that my home was about to be misused in a way that would harm my people,” she recalls in an interview with TRT World from Portland in the US state of Oregon, where she now works as a youth development specialist.

“While they [the US military] may have leased the island, leasing does not grant full ownership—it’s more like borrowing. When someone doesn’t truly own something, they have a responsibility to respect it and take proper care of it,” she adds. “Instead, there was a disregard for this understanding, threatening the well-being of the land and the community that calls it home”

This sense of stewardship continues to shape the perspective of many in Tinian today.

The island’s burden of history

Tinian is part of the Northern Mariana Islands, a string of islands just north of Guam, captured by the United States during major battles in World War II. Tinian was administered by Japan before World War II and became a major sugarcane-growing and sugar-processing centre.

In 1944, the US established its military presence across the territory, building what was then the world's largest air force base on Tinian.

Tinian’s role in World War II resonates far beyond its shores. The island became the launching point for the atomic bombings on Japan, cementing its place in military history. The dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki not only ended the war but also left an indelible mark on Japan's psyche.

The US military presence remained unbroken, and by the 1980s, the Northern Mariana Islands became a US territory—its future tied inextricably to American strategic interests.

Japan’s muted response

Given the island's profound historical significance, it seems perplexing that Japan, a nation so deeply affected by the events tied to Tinian, has remained largely silent about the US military's recent ambitions.

The lack of any major reaction raises questions about Japan’s evolving defence posture and alignment with the US, which includes close cooperation on vital semiconductor technology.

“It is indeed surprising that Japan has remained silent on the US military’s plans in Tinian,” Aldan says.

“Japan has a powerful peace movement and numerous organisations dedicated to nuclear disarmament and non-violence. In this context, one might expect Japan to voice concerns or at least express interest in how the military’s actions in Tinian could affect regional stability and environmental safety.”

Aldan believes that if Japan’s peace movement mobilises in response, it could amplify awareness of the situation on an international level, bringing greater attention to Tinian’s concerns and potentially influencing US decision-making.

Gorska, however, points out that it's crucial to remember that Tinian isn't part of Japan, unlike Okinawa.

“This likely means Japan has less direct interest in what happens on Tinian, contributing to their relatively muted reaction… Instead of focusing on Tinian, they might prioritise more urgent matters… such as relocating US bases in Okinawa.”

She notes that it's also worth considering that Japan's silence may not mean complete agreement. “There might be behind-the-scenes discussions where Japan raises concerns about Tinian without publicising them.”

Japan is seeking to bolster its alliance with the US even more, and the government probably recognises that speaking out against Washington’s plans for Tinian could strain these efforts, says Gorska.

“While the historical weight of Tinian undoubtedly influences Japan's thinking, I believe their current approach is more about addressing today's security needs and managing the alliance than about revisiting past grievances,” she elucidates.

Gorska, however, also warns that Japan’s silence could have significant implications for public sentiment and future domestic policy decisions.

“Some may interpret this silence as prioritising strategic interests over historical memory and the strong anti-nuclear sentiment among the populace, potentially creating a disconnect between government policy and public opinion.”

Such a disconnect has already led to tension, as many atomic bomb survivors feel betrayed by the government's reluctance to support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

Additionally, calls from the mayors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki for Japan to sign and ratify the treaty highlight this discontent—further exacerbated by the recent Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the atomic bomb survivor organisation Nihon Hidankyo—which has reignited Japan's anti-nuclear movement.

“This gap between public opinion and government policy could significantly influence domestic politics, particularly if public frustration mounts and becomes a prominent election issue,” she says.

However, as Gorska points out, it is essential to recognise that the Japanese public also harbours concerns about regional security threats from North Korea and China, complicating the narrative.

“While the government's silence on Tinian might frustrate those focused on Japan's anti-nuclear legacy, others may view it as a necessary compromise for national security.”

Complex geopolitical chessboard

China, too, is watching closely. As the US strengthens its presence in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing is likely to see the militarisation of Tinian as a direct challenge.

Last December, following initial reports of US plans to reclaim the islands, China urged regional countries to remain on high alert amid the US military deployment.

“The Chinese military is paying close attention to moves by the United States and will firmly safeguard China's maritime rights, security, and sovereignty in the region,” Chinese defence ministry spokesperson Wu Qian told the media. He further stated that the US goal is “for its own selfish gains and to maintain its hegemony. Its nature is to stoke confrontation.”

The revival of US military bases, such as on Tinian Island, will most certainly heighten tensions between the US and China, putting Japan in a difficult diplomatic position, according to Gorska.

“China has consistently expressed concern about the US military presence in the region, viewing it as part of a strategy to contain Beijing's influence. The expansion of US capabilities on Tinian and the ongoing presence in Okinawa will likely be seen by Beijing as a direct challenge to its regional interests,” she says.

“However, it's important to note that Japan is trying to walk a fine line here. While strengthening its alliance with the US, Japan has also attempted to maintain stable economic relations with China. This balancing act is becoming increasingly challenging as geopolitical tensions rise,” she adds.

“We might see Japan trying to offset the military cooperation (with the US) by engaging in more diplomatic and economic dialogue with China. They might emphasise that these military measures are defensive and not aimed at any specific country,” Gorska reasons.

As the US military reasserts its presence in Tinian, the future of the island and its people hangs in the balance. The lack of a strong protest, both locally and from Japan, reflects a changing world where strategic alliances and military dominance often take precedence over the voices of small island communities.

And yet, the people of Tinian have not forgotten their history or the promise of a future free from militarisation. Whether through silent acquiescence or quiet resistance, Tinian stands at a crossroads once again.