Will Xi and Modi shake hands at the BRICS summit in Russia?

China confirmed on Tuesday that it has reached a "resolution" with India on military patrols along their disputed Himalayan border, a day after New Delhi announced a military agreement with Beijing aimed at easing tensions along the frontier.

The latest development, ahead of the BRICS summit, has prompted speculation of a potential bilateral meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the event.

"Over a recent period of time, China and India have reached resolutions on issues concerning the border area following close communication through diplomatic and military channels," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on Tuesday.

"China commends the progress made and will continue working with India for the sound implementation of these resolutions."

This "resolution" follows years of heightened tensions, which escalated after a deadly clash between the two countries' forces in 2020. The easing of tensions comes at a pivotal time as Xi and Modi attend the 16th annual BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The latest development has sparked widespread speculation about whether this border “resolution” could lead to a symbolic handshake or even a face-to-face discussion between the two leaders, potentially marking a new chapter in China-India relations.

On Monday, however, the Chinese spokesperson Lin stopped short of confirming whether this new understanding would pave the way for an official meeting between Xi and Modi during the BRICS summit. “We will keep you posted if anything comes up,” he said.

Unblocking possibilities of collaboration

While the Chinese foreign ministry avoided confirming a potential bilateral exchange, the possibility of a meeting lingers, according to analysts on both sides, especially given the recent diplomatic progress between the two Asian giants.

“The agreement is really a breakthrough and I think this will open the door for a possible meeting between President Xi and Prime Minister Modi on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan,” Atul Aneja, a senior Indian journalist and strategic affairs commentator, tells TRT World from New Delhi.

“Once the two leaders meet, this will unblock a lot of the pending possibilities of collaboration between India and China, which was stalled because of what happened in summer of 2020,” he adds, referring to the deadly border clashes between the two countries' forces in 2020 that left 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops dead, leading to the heightened tensions over the past four years.

Mike Liu, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), a Beijing-based think tank, concurs. “It will be very likely that Chinese President Xi and Indian PM Modi will have a one-on-one meeting during the BRICS meeting this year. The two leaders have not met bilaterally since their last informal meeting in Oct 2019,” he tells TRT World.

“Reaching agreement at this point in time reveals some progress made in the bilateral relations."

Both leaders have avoided a bilateral meeting since the 2020 clash, and their interactions on international stages have remained notably distant.

Xi and Modi last held a bilateral meeting in October 2019, when the Chinese leader visited the southern Indian city of Chennai for an informal summit.

However, with this recent breakthrough, the Kazan summit may present a key opportunity for the two leaders to advance diplomatic relations.

“We are at a cusp right now and it (the pact) can take the India-China relationship forward, provided the two leaders meet in Kazan,” says Aneja.

Cautious note on fragile ties

Liu, however, strikes a cautious note. “I would be very cautious about the future perspectives between two nations,” he says, citing a long to-do list confronting both sides.

“Some important ones like bilateral trade, Chinese investment in India, visa issue etc., are to be properly handled to rebuild the trust.”

Stressing that the relationship between China and India is very fragile and shadowed by many outstanding issues aggregated in the past couple of years, Liu stressed that a possible meeting between the two leaders “can bring back the spirit of trust and set stages for bilateral relations.”

“Last but not least, the shaking hands on the border issue is a big step up to stabilise the bilateral relations, and it will be worthwhile to watch if other agreements can be reached in the next couple of months,” he says, adding that the latest development “has sent a very positive signal to the global communities.”

Earlier on Monday, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar asserted that “the disengagement with China has been completed” following the latest pact.

His remarks were echoed by India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who provided further context.

“Over the last several weeks, Indian and Chinese diplomats and military negotiators have been in close contact with each other, and as a result of these discussions, an agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC),” Misri said, noting that the agreement would lead to disengagement and a resolution of the issues stemming from the 2020 clashes.