COP28: Why the stakes are higher than ever

The annual United Nations climate change summit, known as the Conference of the Parties or COP28, has begun in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and will run through Dec. 12, 2023. There, more than 70,000 participants from 197 countries will discuss the fate of climate crisis through debates and negotiations. These nations are all signatories to The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was established in 1992. Here’s what you need to know about this year’s conference:

1) The stakes are higher than ever

Climate crisis has become an undeniable reality for the world. The widespread use of fossil fuels and subsequent surge in greenhouse gas emissions has contributed to rising global temperatures.

These in turn contribute to shifting weather patterns, increasing natural disasters and the devastation of nature. Whether consciously acknowledged or not, we experience the impacts daily. This is evident in the growing prevalence of wildfires, floods, storms, landslides, and droughts.

Climate change is also contributing to an increase in health problems for many individuals, and numerous species are under the imminent threat of extinction as they struggle to adapt to this rapid transformation.

According to the Global Risks Report 2023 published by the World Economic Forum, the top four of the 10 biggest challenges in the next decade are directly related to climate crisis. These include a failure to mitigate climate change, failure to adapt to climate change, more natural disasters and extreme weather events and biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. Managing the climate crisis will require cooperation on an international scale.

2) COP28 aims to build off of past agreements

In 1995, countries launched COP, a negotiation process to collectively address climate change more effectively. Negotiations have persisted continuously to the present day, with the exception of Covid-19.

COPs serve as a vital platform, convening numerous world leaders, experts, scientists, business, civil society, and many other stakeholders to formulate policy and action decisions on climate crisis. Besides, these conferences act as a central hub for networking and collaboration in addressing the complex challenges posed by climate change.

The first tangible outcomes began with the creation of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Despite being later labelled as a failure, the Kyoto Protocol came into effect as an agreement to regulate the climate regime between 2008 and 2020, imposing emission reduction commitments on developed countries. Its perceived failure was largely attributed to the non-ratification by high-emission countries such as the United States, China, and Australia.

The most significant and widely known deal was the Paris Agreement signed at COP21 in 2015. It united all nations for the first time in a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. It also addresses how to assist developing countries in these endeavours.

The Paris Agreement not only consolidated all countries and provided different ways for everyone to address their issues but also achieved a historic consensus to keep global warming "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and (pursue) efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

In addition to these measures, to enhance global and transparent climate action in all countries, the Paris Agreement mandated a five-year cycle for countries to communicate their contributions to the global fight against climate change through "Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)" and established a Global Stocktake to assess these efforts.

The Paris Agreement also tackled creating net-zero emissions targets, establishing voluntary carbon markets, intensifying ambitions in mitigation and adaptation, addressing loss and damage, and enhancing assistance to developing nations, starting from financing. Since that date, negotiations have persistently advanced in alignment with the road map and goals set by the Paris Agreement.

3) COP28 is special

The UAE will host the first Global Stocktake (GST). GST is particularly important under the Paris Agreement because it will evaluate countries’ progress in achieving the objectives outlined in the agreement, with a specific focus on keeping the 1.5C-degree target.

Other key negotiation topics will revolve around adaptation, mitigation, loss and damage, and means of implementation. At the same time, COP28 holds a special significance as it will be the first conference following the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s latest report.

It states that the destructive effects of climate change appear to be closer and stronger than previously thought, indicating that rapid reductions are needed to achieve net-zero targets around the mid-century. Some regions, including the Mediterranean Basin, are identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change under various global warming scenarios.

4) The UAE as host

Each year, the country hosting COP designates an official from its own government to serve as conference president. COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber is also the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. He holds the dual responsibilities of changing the world’s climate course and heading one of the world’s largest oil producing companies.

One of his top priorities is to slash fossil fuel emissions before 2030, but he has drawn some criticism for not necessarily supporting the phase-out of fossil fuels themselves. Jaber, however, has denied the accusation, saying he would not use the platform for his company's gains.

5) Money will be a big issue

The significance of finance in climate negotiations is rapidly escalating. In nearly every negotiation room, spanning from mitigation to adaptation and gender to climate empowerment, countries are demanding financial support.

However, numerous attempts to meet these calls have proved unsuccessful. Developing nations are expected to press developed countries to fulfil their commitment to provide $100 billion in financial support.

Additionally, last year, countries finally reached an agreement on the long-awaited Loss and Damage Fund. Loss and damage refers to the adverse effects caused by unavoidable climate change risks, particularly impactful for climate-vulnerable developing countries.

These vulnerable nations, while being the most affected, bear the least historical responsibility for global greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, they demand compensation from responsible countries to adapt to the severe changes.

Since the agreement reached at COP27, the scope of the fund, including eligibility criteria, has been the source of intense debate in both negotiations and the media. Developing countries aim to broaden the scope, while many developed countries, starting with the United States, seek to limit it to only least developed and small island countries.

Developing countries also expect enhanced support from developed nations in terms of technical and capacity building. This is due to the complex responsibilities and expectations placed on developing countries, originating from various agreements such as the Paris Agreement.

Lastly, a recurring demand from developing nations is their insistence on adhering to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities outlined in the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. By doing so, they emphasise that developed countries bear the primary responsibility for the climate crisis and underscore their capacity to combat it.

In an effort to address this financing challenge, the UAE is proposing mobilising the private sector, establishing more substantial and effective financial institutions (IFIs), and improving financial support conditions provided by Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) to countries.

In addition to financing, developed countries are expected to discuss more ambitious reduction targets. The IPCC’s latest report asserts that global emissions need to peak by 2025, especially to meet the 1.5-degree target. This could prompt many countries to strongly endorse the COP28 Presidency's goal of energy transition and promote the issue of phasing out coal.