One in four homes in England at risk of flooding by 2050 — report

The UK’s Environment Agency has issued a stark warning of England’s vulnerability to flooding and coastal erosion in its latest National Assessment of Flood Risk (NaFRA), highlighting the growing impact of the climate crisis.

The comprehensive report, published this week, reveals that 6.3 million properties are currently at risk from flooding caused by rivers, the sea and surface water. This figure is projected to surge to around 8 million — or one in four — by 2050 as rising sea levels and extreme weather events become more frequent.

Surface water flooding, often linked to intense rainfall and overwhelmed urban drainage systems, poses the greatest challenge. The number of properties at risk has risen to 4.6 million, a significant 43 percent increase from previous assessments. By 2060, this could grow to 6.1 million as the climate crisis intensifies weather patterns.

Coastal erosion, another critical concern, threatens 3,500 properties today, with numbers expected to climb to 10,100 by 2105 under existing Shoreline Management Plans.

“The total number of properties in areas at erosion risk would be 9 times greater in the period up to 2055, reaching up to 32,800 properties,” said the report.

Significant challenges

Around 2.4 million properties in England are at risk of flooding from rivers and the sea, with 367,900 now classified as high-risk — an 88 percent increase compared to the previous assessment.

The report highlights that as of today, the East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the South East have the highest number of properties at high or medium flood risk from rivers and the sea, making up 52 percent of such properties across England. Meanwhile, less than 10 percent of properties at high or medium risk are in London, largely due to robust flood defences like the Thames Barrier.

The latest projections from the report indicate that in all future climate scenarios, UK sea levels could rise by over a metre by 2100, potentially making once-a-century extreme sea-level events an annual occurrence.

This ongoing trend presents significant challenges for coastal areas across the UK.

The Environment Agency stresses the urgency of sustainable investment in flood defenses, improved infrastructure resilience and climate adaptation measures to safeguard communities, infrastructure and agricultural lands.