Russia may cut wheat crop forecast due to bad weather damage

Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter, may harvest less wheat than forecast, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said in the first cautious official acknowledgement of the damage inflicted on crops by bad weather earlier this year.

Lut said on Tuesday that the ministry maintained the official forecast of 132 million metric tons for the total grain harvest, including 86 million tons of wheat, but the wheat forecast could be lowered as the harvesting campaign draws to a close.

"There are no final forecasts for wheat yet. The harvest figures may fluctuate downward," Lut was quoted by Russian agencies as saying on the sidelines of President Vladimir Putin's visit to a farm in the Caucasus region of Kabardino-Balkaria.

Lut said the ministry did not have an official wheat export forecast for the 2024-25 agricultural season, while the official grain export forecast remained at 60 million tons. Grain exports last year totalled a record 72 million tons.

Lut added that export quotas and the overall export target will be decided when all the crops are harvested to ensure that domestic needs are covered.

Lower wheat harvest

Russia has been hit by weather extremes ranging from early spring frosts to droughts to floods, with some grain-producing regions suffering significant crop losses. The bad weather showed no signs of abating during the harvesting season.

"It seems we have weathered the bad weather, with only 1.1 million hectares (km²) being a total loss. And we had decent yields. But now the Urals are being flooded, making harvesting difficult," Lut was quoted as saying.

Market analysts have been predicting a lower wheat harvest this year for some time, with Sovecon raising its forecast to 83.3 million metric tons on Tuesday from 82.9 million previously.

Sovecon also lowered its forecast for the overall 2024 grain crop to 128.4 million tons from a previous forecast of 130.5 million. Officials repeatedly said that they maintain the official forecast of 132 million tons despite the losses.

"There are no grounds to change this figure either downward or upward. For now, we stand by it," Lut said.