Study warns of Gaza's surging carbon emissions amid Israeli bombings

With Israel's war in Gaza now in its fourth month, concerns are mounting over the environmental consequences, particularly the carbon emissions, generated by the ongoing hostilities.

A recent study published on the Social Science Research Network, "Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Israel-Gaza Conflict," reveals that estimated emissions from the first two months of the war were greater than the annual emissions of 20 individual countries and territories.

The data, exclusively shared by the British daily The Guardian, also reveals that during the first two months of the war, total emissions from the conflict amounted to 281,315 tons of carbon dioxide.

This includes the combined emissions of bombs, rockets, and artillery, as well as munitions shipments delivered by cargo jet.

According to the study, greenhouse gas emissions from the first 60 days of the war are "roughly the equivalent of 75 coal-fired power plants operating for a year."

Emissions from Gaza's reconstruction

The reconstruction of Gaza also emerges as a significant source of future emissions. According to the study, "the carbon costs of reconstructing Gaza are enormous. Rebuilding Gaza will entail a total annual emissions figure higher then over 130 countries, putting them on par with that of New Zealand."

Commenting on the emissions projected from the reconstruction of the besieged enclave, Lennard de Klerk, the lead author of the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, a group of experts studying the climate impact of the Ukraine war, told Anadolu that the war in Gaza has led to the substantial destruction of buildings including residential, commercial buildings, and public structures, which all have to be rebuilt.

"If we get to zoom into Gaza, that is where I expect that the biggest impact is in the future reconstruction of what has been destroyed," he said in a video interview.

According to de Klerk, rebuilding means an "awful lot of cement and steel," two building materials that are highly carbon intensive to produce.

In Gaza City, about 80 percent of buildings have been either damaged or completely destroyed, he added, citing reports.

Comparing Gaza war to Ukraine

De Klerk, who spearheaded a study on carbon footprints and military emissions during Russia's war on Ukraine, pointed out the similarities and differences between the two conflicts.

He said that while raw data on the destruction and carbon emissions in Gaza is very difficult to acquire, the numbers are "significant." However, compared to Ukraine, the figure is smaller.

In terms of surface area, the Gaza war is smaller in scale than the conflict in Ukraine, which is spread over a much wider territory with a longer front line, he said.

“The Gaza Strip itself is much smaller, although the intensity of destruction is much bigger” compared to Ukraine, he explained.

De Klerk's own rough estimate for the CO2 emissions from the first six weeks of rebuilding is 5.8 million tons, and "most of the destruction happened in the early phase of the war."

He estimated that the figure for emissions to arise from reconstruction could reach nearly 10 million tons.

De Klerk's findings for the first 18 months of the Ukraine war are of emissions equivalent to 150 million tons of carbon dioxide, which Belgium emits on an annual basis.

He said the war in Ukraine was mainly fought as a ground war.

"So you see a lot of tanks using a lot of diesel. So that's where the emissions come from."

Another source of emissions in Ukraine was forest fires, which were "mostly absent because in Gaza."

Commenting on the Gaza war, he said: "The emissions will be related to airplanes because this is a conflict that's mainly fought from the air, and fighter jets are very carbon intensive. They use an awful lot of jet fuel."

Military emissions also include greenhouse gases emitted daily from bases, training or drill sessions, and travel on the sea from one base to another, he said.

According to the study, 121,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions resulted from Israeli F-16 and limited F-35 flights, while 133,650 tons were attributable to US supply planes.

During the first two months, Israel dropped 10,000 bombs on Gaza, resulting in 6,689 tonnes of emissions.

Emissions reduction

De Klerk called for a reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, adding that conflicts are increasing them with a direct impact on people’s lives.

"Climate change is a global problem. So emissions that happen in one country can have a negative impact on the climate in another country," he said, adding that the main focus was wider than the climate of Gaza or Ukraine changing.

"The problem is that we have to reduce ... the emissions of greenhouse gases."

Instability across the world has pushed many countries to restock their military, according to de Klerk.

"So they are buying more equipment to protect and defend their countries. But as with all this military equipment, to produce tanks, to produce military equipment, again, this is very carbon intensive. So there are more emissions, and also in using the equipment, it is very carbon intensive."

"All these conflicts, also in the long term, will lead to increased emissions."

This will bring us even further away from reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement, and that is to limit global warming to 1.5 C, he added.

Military emissions figures

De Klerk said that around 5.5 percent of total emissions are military-related.

However, he pointed out that this is a rough estimate, as they "don't have the data ... and there are several reasons why the military doesn't disclose it."

According to the study, the Israeli army "has never reported emissions figures," which de Klerk said must be known before reduction can take place.

"I indeed also call on the military to be more open about what emissions they have in the first place," he said.