Trump comes in, Paris climate deal goes for toss

President Donald Trump will once again withdraw the United States from the Paris climate deal, the White House has said, removing the world's biggest historic emitter from global efforts to fight the climate crisis for the second time in a decade.

The decision would place the United States alongside Iran, Libya and Yemen as the only countries in the world outside the 2015 pact, in which governments agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

The announcement on Monday, in a document from the White House, reflects Trump’s scepticism about global warming, which he has called a hoax, and fits in with his broader agenda to unfetter US oil and gas drillers from regulation so they can maximize output.

The United States is already the world’s top producer of oil and natural gas thanks to a years-long drilling boom in Texas, New Mexico and elsewhere fueled by fracking technology and strong global prices since the Russia-Ukraine war.

Trump also withdrew the US from the Paris deal during his first term in office, though the process took years and was immediately reversed by the Biden presidency in 2021. The withdrawal this time around is likely to take less time – as little as a year because Trump will not be bound by the deal’s initial three-year commitment.

This time could also be more damaging to global climate efforts, said Paul Watkinson, a former climate negotiator and senior policy advisor for France.

The US is currently the world's second-biggest greenhouse gas emitter behind China and its departure undermines global ambition to slash those emissions.

"It will be harder this time because we are in the thick of implementation, up against real choices," Watkinson said.

A stark contrast

The world is now on pace for global heating of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to a recent United Nations report, a level scientists warn would trigger cascading impacts like sea level rise, heat waves, and devastating storms.

Nations have already been struggling to make steep cuts to emissions required to lower the projected temperature increase, as wars, political tensions and tight government budgets push climate change down the list of priorities.

Trump’s approach cuts a stark contrast to that of former President Joe Biden, who wanted the United States to lead global climate efforts and sought to encourage a transition away from oil and gas using a combination of subsidies and regulations.

Trump has said he intends to unwind those subsidies and regulations to shore up the nation’s budget and grow the economy, but has insisted he can do that while also ensuring clean air and water in the United States.

Li Shuo, an expert in climate diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the U.S. withdrawal risks undermining America's ability to compete with China in key clean energy markets like solar power and electric vehicles.

"China stands to win, and the US risks lagging further behind," he said.