Hezbollah just targeted Tel Aviv. What does it mean?

A Hezbollah ballistic missile targeted the Israeli spy agency Mossad's headquarters near Tel Aviv, marking the first time the Iran-backed militant group has hit so deep inside Israeli territory.

The strike came on Wednesday amid a barrage of Israeli air strikes on Lebanon and retaliatory rocket attacks by Hezbollah, marking a grim turn in the conflict that analysts say is quickly turning into a full-blown war.

The latest conflagration has killed over 500 people – including a large number of civilians – and injured thousands of others, most of them in indiscriminate Israeli bombardment in Lebanon.

Last week, thousands of walkie-talkies and pagers used by Hezbollah members and humanitarian workers detonated across southern Lebanon, killing and injuring scores.

The explosions, allegedly orchestrated by Israel, caused panic in Beirut’s densely populated residential areas.

But despite the disproportionate Israeli attacks, Hezbollah has so far avoided hitting Israeli population centres, leaving many to question its strategy and capability.

Tuba Yildiz, a Beirut-based security analyst, says this could be part of Hezbollah’s optics game.

Hezbollah had made it clear right from the start that its only target was Israel’s military bases, she says, explaining that this is being done to rebuild the group’s image, which was damaged when it sided with Syrian regime leader Bashar al Assad's in the initial days of the civil war.

Yildiz, who is also an expert on Lebanese factions, says that Hezbollah have missiles that can reach civilian areas in Tel Aviv, but it is unlikely to go that far as such an act could lead to a massive Israeli response.

Hezbollah will then have to take the blame for any harm to Lebanese citizens, she adds.

Sami Nader, the Institute of Political Science director at Saint Joseph University in Philadelphia, United States, agrees with Yildiz’s assessment.

Suppose Hezbollah takes the risk of hitting Tel Aviv or any civilian target either directly or through miscalculation. In that case, it will give Israel the excuse to bomb suburban Beirut and residential areas in other cities.

“On one hand, he [Hasan Nasrallah] decided to go to war, and on the other hand, he cannot risk a full-blown war,” says Nader, an economist who currently directs the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.

“He cannot risk escalation because now the balance of power is tilted in favour of Israel…Whether we like it or not, this is a fact,” he adds.

Nader says Israel was surprised by the Hamas attack because Israelis thought they had the Palestinian outfit under control.

However, “they were not surprised by the war against Hezbollah… they have been preparing since 2006. And they are putting together a plan to refurbish their image that took a blow in 2006” when the Israeli military was forced to retreat from Lebanon by Hezbollah.

According to Yildiz, there are unverified reports that Hezbollah has called some of its members from Syria to join a possible war against Israel in Lebanon.

“Hezbollah will try to defend Lebanese territory but not attempt any kind of incursion on Israeli territory. But after Israel killed its high-profile commanders, overstretching the rules of engagement, Hezbollah will also retaliate in kind against Israel,” she says.

“Hezbollah will show its rocket capacity. Overall, we can say that violent engagements are intensifying and moving toward a point of no return.”

Will diplomacy work

Since all diplomatic initiatives have failed in Gaza, Yildiz believes it would not work for Lebanon either.

“Israel has forced Lebanese citizens from southern areas to evacuate their homes just as its own citizens were forced to flee northern areas in Israel because of Hezbollah rockets,” she says.

“Here in Beirut, you can see many migrants from south Lebanon and other parts of the country. Israel has long wanted to see this sort of chaos here.”

Global leaders led by UN human rights chief Volker Turk are already calling for restraint from all sides to de-escalate the situation.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said that its ally Hezbollah "cannot stand alone" against Israel.

In an interview with CNN, he said: “Hezbollah cannot stand alone against a country that is being defended and supported and supplied by Western countries, by European countries and the United States.”

The Kremlin says Israeli strikes on Lebanon risk destabilising the Middle East.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow condemned what she called "indiscriminate" strikes on Lebanon that target civilians.

"It is urgent to stop the spiral of violence before the situation spirals completely out of control. We call for an immediate cessation of hostilities," she said.

Belgium’s deputy prime minister Petra de Sutter tweeted and said she was “shocked” by the toll from Israel’s Monday attacks on Lebanon. “492 lives lost in Lebanon. +1600 injured. Tens of 1000s were ordered to flee their homes. In 1 day,” she wrote on X.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib that China firmly supported Lebanon in safeguarding its sovereignty and security and strongly condemned violations after Israel’s large-scale air strike.

Wang and Habib met in New York, where they exchanged views on the situation in the Middle East, according to a statement from China’s Foreign Ministry.

Wang said no matter how the situation changes, China would continue to stand on the “side of justice and on the side of Arab brothers, including Lebanon”.

Türkiye has slammed Israel’s recent attacks on Lebanon as “efforts to drag the region into chaos”, calling for international measures against them and a halt to support for Israel, Reuters reports.

In a statement on Monday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said countries that “unconditionally support Israel” were helping Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “shed blood for his political interests”.

“It is imperative that all institutions responsible for maintaining international peace and security, especially the United Nations Security Council, as well as the international community, take the necessary measures without delay,” it said.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy tweeted that he was “deeply alarmed” by the ongoing air raids in Lebanon and Israel.

“Further escalation risks even more devastating consequences. I repeat my call for an immediate ceasefire on both sides,” he said on X on Monday evening.