‘Reckless’ US policy over Cyprus can kickstart an arms race, say experts

The recent defence pact that the United States signed with the Greek Cypriot administration could destabilise an already volatile region, experts say.

Washington signed the Roadmap for Bilateral Defence Cooperation pact with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GCASC) earlier this month, drawing strong criticism from Turkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

“ The US was neutral until recently, but now they are acting recklessly,” says Ismail Bozkurt, a former Cypriot MP and advisor to the late TRNC president Rauf Denktas.

“Cyprus’s ceasefire is grounded in international law, as outlined in the Zurich and London agreements and upheld by the UN General Assembly. Unfortunately, the concept of justice and international law has weakened as we watch the powerful win as they choose to abide by the laws of the jungle.”

The Cyprus island is divided between TRNC and the Greek Cypriot (GCASC). The division followed ethnic tensions in the 1960s that forced Turkish Cypriots to seek refuge in the north of the island.

In 1974, a Greek Cypriot coup aimed at Greece’s annexation of the island led to Türkiye’s military intervention as a guarantor power to protect Turkish Cypriots from persecution and violence. As a result, the TRNC was founded in 1983.

The Greek Cypriot administration was admitted to the EU in 2004, the same year Greek Cypriots opposed the Annan plan to end the longstanding dispute.​​​​​​​

Despite decades of reunification efforts, the island remains split along ethnic lines, with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north and the Greek Cypriot administration in the south functioning as separate political entities.

Türkiye recognises TRNC and supports a two-state solution in the island.

Turkish officials have expressed concerns that enhanced military ties between Washington and Greek Cypriot administration (GCASC) could disrupt the delicate balance of power on the divided island, with potential repercussions for the broader region.

Türkiye’s Ministry of Defence said the US was abandoning its historically neutral stance on the Cyprus dispute, shifting towards favouring the Greek Cypriot administration at the expense of the Turkish Cypriot community.

“We strongly condemn this agreement,” the ministry said, arguing that the deal “undermines peace efforts” and threatens the stability of the island.

The defence pact, Ankara insists, unjustly legitimises the Greek Cypriot administration as the island’s sole representative, a move that has sparked outrage among residents of the TRNC.

“This agreement highlights the deepening of the strategic partnership between the US and the Greek Cypriot administration, a development that threatens the balance of power,” says Zeliha Khasman, a professor of international relations at Near East University.

“The annual renewal of the arms embargo’s lifting signals a fundamental shift in US policy.”

Abandoning Neutrality

The United States has made a series of moves in recent years, signalling a shift in its Cyprus policy, tilting in favour of the Greek Cypriot administration to the detriment of the Turkish Cypriots.

In 2022, Washington lifted a decades-old arms embargo on Greek Cypriot, a decision that Turkish officials saw as a clear indication of changing allegiances.

In a strongly worded statement, Türkiye’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs echoed the defence ministry’s condemnation of the recent US-Greek Cypriot defence agreement, describing it as “a significant barrier” to any lasting and equitable solution to the Cyprus problem.

As a guarantor state, Türkiye stresses its responsibility to protect the Turkish Cypriots. “We will continue to ensure the security and prosperity of the Turkish Cypriot people under all circumstances,” declared the ministry.

Türkiye has consistently argued that Cyprus’s divided status requires careful diplomacy, with the US expected to act as an impartial mediator between the two sides rather than favouring one.

TRNC has voiced alarm at the strengthening defence ties between the US and the Greek Cypriot administration, pointing out that the US naval visits to Southern Cyprus have increased.

“The agreement formalises the growing cooperation between the US and Southern Cyprus as they strengthen their military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean,” says Zuhal Mert Uzuner, an associate professor of political science at Marmara University in Istanbul.

“This, coupled with an increasing number of naval deployments by various international actors in the region, indicates a significant shift in the balance of power.”

Trouble in the Mediterranean

Türkiye and TRNC are voicing growing concerns over the increasing presence of foreign naval forces in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Ankara sees the cooperation between the US and Greek Cypriot administration as a potential flashpoint for heightened tensions in the region.

Turkish officials warn that the recently signed US-Greek Cypriot defence pact could accelerate an arms race on the island, with both sides potentially bolstering their military capabilities.

Energy disputes and maritime boundary disagreements in the Mediterranean are already complicating relations between Türkiye, Greece, and GCASC, adding further strain to an already delicate situation.

The defence agreement, signed by Greek Cypriot Defence Minister Vassilis Palmas and US Assistant Secretary of Defence Celeste Wallander, risks further destabilising a fragile region where competing powers are vying for influence, Turkish officials say.

In response to these developments, Türkiye has reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding the security of Turkish Cypriots in the TRNC. As a guarantor state, along with Greece and the United Kingdom, Türkiye has maintained a security presence on the island since the 1974 conflict.

Turkish officials argue that any resolution to the Cyprus issue must address the concerns of both communities, stressing that the rights of Turkish Cypriots cannot be ignored or sidelined.

Ankara sees the US-Greek Cypriot defence agreement as a significant obstacle to peace on the island.

Turkish officials warn that the exclusion of Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriot community from the decision-making process undermines efforts to find a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem.

Without the involvement of all stakeholders, they argue, any settlement will lack legitimacy and could exacerbate tensions in a region already fraught with instability. The growing military imbalance, they add, makes pursuing a fair and lasting peace even more elusive.