Russia sees opportunity in second Trump term, but remains wary about future

Donald Trump's stunning election victory will mark a new era for the United States, not only with Washington's allies but also its adversaries, including Russia.

The US and Russia have a long history of enmity, from the Cold War to the recent Ukraine war, in which Washington has backed Kiev both financially and militarily.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is among many world leaders who have been watching the US election with a sharp eye. His campaign in Ukraine has changed the geopolitical equation across Eurasian hinterland against US designs of cultivating more pro-Western governments.

Putin congratulated Trump during a speech in the Valdai Discussion Club in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Thursday.

However, "this is an unofficial congratulation. Russia does not provide an official written congratulation to the US for newly-elected presidents because both countries are not on friendly terms," Sergei Markov, a Russian political scientist and former advisor of Putin, tells TRT World.

Putin and Trump

During a question-answer session, Putin stressed "his very big personal respect" for Trump, praising his "brave attitude" during an assassination attempt on his life. This showed that Trump is ready to fight for the American people, says Markov, who also participated in the Valdai Club meetings.

Putin also expressed his readiness to negotiate a peace deal with Trump to end the Ukraine war, adding that he is ready to talk to any Western leader on this issue, according to Markov.

But Western leaders are not ready to talk to Putin about Ukraine because they want to see Russia's strategic defeat in Ukraine, the Russian president said while in Sochi.

"Putin is waiting" for what Trump will offer him on Ukraine, but he is also "concerned" that the Republican leader might not change policy on Ukraine or other geopolitical issues if he is "limited" by inner power circles, as was the case during his first term, Markov says.

But if Trump is "powerful and brave enough" to overcome anti-Russia bias in Washington, then Russia will approach his offer in friendly terms. Otherwise, "the war will continue," says Markov, who now leads the Institute for Political Studies, a Moscow-based Russian think tank.

Russians hope that Trump will change the US approach towards Moscow, leading to improved ties, says Oleg Ignatov, a Brussels-based senior analyst on Russia at the International Crisis Group. But they are feeling "cautious and not ready to create high expectations," believing that "the problems are too complex to be solved by just one person," Ignatov tells TRT World.

'Good news' for Russia

Ultimately though, Trump's victory is "good news" for Russia, says Markov.

First of all, Trump said many times that the Ukraine war should end in a way in which Russia is not defeated, a position the Kremlin sees as a respectful approach toward Moscow's global standing, he said.

Second, Trump has opposed big financial and military aid to Kiev, saying that it's "senseless" to spend American taxpayer money on a foreign country like Ukraine, Markov adds. Without Western military and financial aid, Ukraine will be forced to sign a peace settlement with Russia, which is what Moscow has long aimed for.

Markov also draws attention to the fact that Ukrainian President Volodoymyr Zelenskyy played a role in US President Joe Biden's defeat of Trump in 2020, because of ties with son Hunter Biden and his alleged corrupt deals involving Ukrainian firms. Alleged Zelenskyy-Biden ties make Trump angry about Kiev, which might play a role in Trump's rapprochement with Russia, he adds.

Russia also has positive views about a Trump presidency because the former president has opposed sanctions against Moscow, which has pushed the Kremlin toward China, the world's second biggest economy, says Markov. "Trump does not want Russia to get aligned with China, the main global competitor of the US," so he advocates good ties and lifting sanctions on Moscow, he says.

Overall, Russia sees Trump's second rise to power as a positive development, but it also takes into account the "so-called American deep state" interference in the Republican leader's decision-making process in Moscow, as during his first term, according to Markov. "Probably, the deep state will again not allow Trump to improve ties with Russia."

Personal connections

Trump, who is the co-author of the famous Art of the Deal, strongly believes that personal connections and his dealmaking skills can help the US fix serious political problems across the globe.

This has led him to develop fond ties with important leaders, including Putin.

"Both leaders believe in the value of personal relationships," Ignatov says. Trump found Putin "very smart" and the Russian leader also offered kind words to the American leader as he recently called him "courageous" and "manly."

"There is a chance because Trump is very different from Biden and has shown that he is willing to not follow many American traditions. But it will be difficult to do so because of the fact that both countries have interests that are at odds with each other," concludes Ignatov.