Diaspora vote crucial in Moldova's  path toward the EU

The referendum in Moldova on the question of whether its people want to join the European Union in future has hit a tight race.

Nearly 99 percent of votes have been counted in the referendum held on Sunday that asked voters to choose whether to enshrine in the country’s constitution a path toward the EU.

But the preliminary results released by election authorities on Monday showed there's still no final answer as 50.3 percent of voters favour the EU while 49.7 percent are against it.

What has emerged as a defining theme in the referendum that was held alongside the presidential election, is the role of Moldova's diaspora, which mostly lives in European countries. Nearly 25 percent of Moldova's population lives abroad.

Turnout for Sunday's vote surpassed 50 percent, much above the 33 percent needed for the referendum to be valid.

The vote was held amid ongoing claims by Moldovan authorities that Moscow has intensified a “hybrid war” campaign to destabilise the country and derail its path to EU.

The allegations, vehemently denied by Russia, include funding pro-Moscow opposition groups, spreading disinformation, meddling in local elections and backing a major vote-buying scheme.

In the presidential race that was held at the same time, President Maia Sandu won the first round with 42 percent of the vote in a field of 11, but failed to win an outright majority.

She will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general who outperformed polls with around 26 percent of the vote, in a runoff on November 3.

By the time polls closed on Sunday, more than 1.5 million voters — about 51 percent of eligible voters — had cast ballots, according to the Central Electoral Commission.

Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, said that polls might have “overestimated the pro-EU feeling” inside Moldova, which would have failed to pass without votes from outside the country.

A pro-Western government has been in power in Moldova since 2021, a year after Sandu won the presidency. A parliamentary election will be held next year.

Moldova, a former Soviet republic with a population of about 2.5 million, applied to join the EU in the wake of Russia’s full-scale offensive in neighbouring Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and was granted candidate status that summer alongside Ukraine.

Brussels agreed in June to start membership negotiations.