How significant is Indian PM Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine aims to highlight New Delhi's neutrality and potential role as a peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, analysts say.

Modi visited Russia in July, and his trip was criticised by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Western allies.

Friday’s visit to Ukraine— the first by an Indian prime minister—primarily focuses on advancing Indian interests, according to Dhananjay Tripathi, a senior assistant professor at South Asian University in New Delhi.

"PM Modi, in relation to the Russia-Ukraine war, said that this is not an era of war. The recent visit to Ukraine is part of India’s reassurance that it is not taking a side in this war," he told TRT World.

The chief of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, termed Modi's visit “historic” and hoped that India could play the role of a mediator in ending the war in which hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced.

Modi's arrival in Kiev comes at a time when Ukrainian troops have taken the war inside Russia. But Tripathi says not much should be read into the timing of Modi's trip as it was only a coincidence.

Tripathi says the visit is creating a positive dynamic that provides New Delhi with some leverage to advocate for peace.

However, given the nature of the war, it could be challenging "to determine whether India can definitively persuade Russia to pursue peace".

"Nonetheless, it's possible for India to play a significant role in any peace efforts involving both parties," he says.

Before arriving in Ukraine, Modi made a stopover in Poland on Thursday, during which he urged diplomatic efforts to end the war and said that no conflict could be solved on a battlefield.

India’s potential influence over Russia in the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II has drawn significant attention from geopolitical analysts.

India, the world's most populous nation, surpassed China in July to become the largest buyer of Russian crude oil. New Delhi is also one of the largest users of Russian weapons.

But the effectiveness of India's influence to shape the conflict will largely depend on Russia's own strategic calculations, as well as India's continued efforts to balance its ties with Moscow and Western nations, Tripathi said.

"India, due to its (historical) political and military ties with Russia, and growing relationship with the West, remains in a dilemma. However, now there are expectations from New Delhi. If India is interested in promoting peace, this visit is an opportunity."

Ongoing conflict amid peace plans

Ukraine has said it hopes to bring together a second international summit later this year to advance its vision of peace and involve representatives from Russia.

The first summit in Switzerland -- that pointedly excluded Russia in June -- attracted scores of delegations, including one from India, but not from China, which has close ties with Russia and is the world's second largest economy.

"Lasting peace can only be achieved through options that are acceptable to both parties. And it can only be a negotiated settlement," Tanmaya Lal, a top official in the Indian foreign ministry, told reporters.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kiev-based political analyst, said he expected no breakthrough proposals to be made to end the war during Modi's trip. He felt that any negotiation attempt can be made only after stabilisation of the military situation and the presidential election in the United States, a close ally of Ukraine.

He said the visit was important for India to demonstrate that it was "not on Russia's side" and that Kiev wanted to normalise relations after Modi's Moscow trip.