Live blog: Russia gaining upper hand in Ukraine — Norway intel

Monday, February 12, 2024

1522 GMT — Russia is gaining the advantage in the war in Ukraine owing to a greater number of troops and materiel supplied by China, North Korea and other countries, Norway's intelligence service has warned.

Presenting its annual risk report along with other Norwegian security services, the head of the military intelligence unit Nils Andreas Stensones said Kiev would need "extensive" Western military aid to turn the situation around.

"In this war, Russia is currently in a stronger position than it was a year ago and is in the process of gaining the advantage," Stensones told reporters.

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1652 GMT — Russia detains Belarusian man for pro-Ukraine arson

A Belarusian man who set fire to a railway substation in western Russia has been detained on suspicion of pro-Ukraine sabotage, Russian state news agencies reported.

The suspect, born in 1998, targeted a railway substation in Tula, about 175 kilometres (100 miles) south of Moscow, the RIA news agency reported.

He had already served a prior sentence for "hooliganism" in Belarus, and carried out the arson on orders from a Ukrainian who had promised money, it said. He was detained by security services in the Russian city of Voronezh, where he planned to commit another crime, it reported, citing the FSB security services.

1649 GMT — EU explains measures regarding Russian Central Bank assets

The EU has given more details on how it will implement restrictive measures regarding the Russian Central Bank, it said in a statement.

"The (European) Council decided in particular that central securities depositaries (CSDs) holding more than 1 million euros ($1.1 million) of the Central Bank of Russia’s assets must account for extraordinary cash balances accumulating due to EU restrictive measures separately and must also keep corresponding revenues separate", it said.

It added that CSDs will be prohibited from disposing of the ensuing net profits. The decision paves the way for the Council to decide on the possible establishment of a financial contribution to the EU budget raised on these net profits to support Ukraine.

1638 GMT — Peace process in Ukraine must address 'root causes': UN

A peace process in Ukraine must tackle the underlying causes of the conflict, the UN has said, stressing that a peace agreement alone will not end violence.

"Peace processes must address the root causes of the conflict, and come with full and equal participation of women and youth, and inclusion of civil society voices," Miroslav Jenca, the UN assistant secretary-general for Europe, Central Asia, and the Americas, told a session at the UN Security Council.

"What we need for Ukraine, for the region and the world, is a just, lasting and comprehensive peace, in line with the UN Charter, international law, and the resolutions of the General Assembly," Jenca added.

1627 GMT — Ukraine seeks action over Polish farmers for grain spillage

Kiev has urged Warsaw to "hold to account" Polish farmers for stopping three trucks at a border crossing between Poland and Ukraine and spilling the Ukrainian grain they were carrying.

Sunday's incident near the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint, reported by the Polish news agency PAP, was during a wider protest by Polish farmers against European Union agriculture policies, including allowing cheap grain imports from Ukraine.

"The spoiling of Ukrainian grain on the Polish border is unacceptable," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on X.

1612 GMT — Trump's NATO threat 'good for Russia': Germany

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has decried Donald Trump's threat not to protect NATO members who do not spend enough on defence, saying the US presidential hopeful's remarks served Russia.

"These statements are not responsible, and they help Russia," Steinmeier told reporters in Nicosia on the first official visit by a German president to Cyprus, a fellow European Union member.

Former president and Republican frontrunner Trump on Saturday warned that the United States would not defend its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies against Russian attacks if they do not meet financial obligations.

1600 GMT — 'All for one': Ukraine allies France, Poland to tighten ties

French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have discussed ramping up security cooperation in Europe, as fears grow that Donald Trump's possible return to the White House might threaten Western solidarity against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Former EU chief Tusk referenced Alexandre Dumas' classic book, "The Three Musketeers," as he said Poland was ready to stand shoulder to shoulder with France and stressed that the philosophy at the heart of relations between the European Union and NATO was based on the principle of "one for all, all for one."

"Together with France we are ready to fight for this security" of "all of Europe," he said.

1551 GMT — Russia attacked Ukraine with 'Zircon' missile last week

Russia has launched a hypersonic 'Zircon' missile during an attack on Ukraine on February 7, the chief of the Kiev Institute for Forensic Examinations, a scientific research body, said.

Oleksandr Ruvin, the director, cited preliminary analysis on his Telegram channel.

"This is evidenced by the marking on parts and fragments, identification of components and parts, and features of the corresponding type of weapon," he said.

1538 GMT — Estonian premier warns Ukraine war will continue until Russia realises winning is not possible

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has warned that the war in Ukraine will continue until Russia realises that winning is impossible while urging Ukraine's Western allies to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and financially.

Russia is gearing up for a prolonged conflict and the West should not run into the "various traps" that have been set up by the Kremlin, said Kallas in an interview with the Austrian news outlet Der Standard.

"It is a mistake to believe that the war can be won quickly," she added.

1308 GMT — Zelenskyy signs bills extending Ukraine’s mobilisation, martial law for 90 days

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed two bills extending martial law and general mobilisation in the country for another 90 days until May 13.

The status of the two bills was updated on the online portal of Verkhovna Rada, the parliament, which had passed them last week.

Zelenskyy first declared martial law and general mobilisation on February 24, 2022 when Russia launched a "special military operation" in Ukraine. The measures have been extended several times since then.

0930 GMT — France, Germany, Poland to launch Ukraine anti-disinformation drive

The top diplomats of France, Germany and Poland were set to launch a joint initiative to fight Russian disinformation attacks as Moscow's war on Ukraine enters a third year.

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said at the weekend that France, Germany and Poland would unveil a new cooperation agreement to combat foreign disinformation operations, particularly those originating in Russia.

"Our three countries have been victims of the same destabilisation strategy," Sejourne said in an interview with French regional daily Ouest-France published on Saturday.

Sejourne said that the three countries would reveal "the attacks that have been committed," adding such disinformation attacks were designed to divide public opinion.

0906 GMT — Russian exports to Europe down two-thirds in 2023

Russian exports to Europe dropped by more than two-thirds in 2023, as the EU drastically cut its purchases of Russian oil and gas, Russia's customs agency said.

EU countries have halted the vast majority of their energy purchases from Russia in a bid to heap economic pressure on Moscow over its military offensive against Ukraine.

Russian exports to Europe dropped 68 percent in 2023 to $84.9 billion, the Interfax news agency cited Russia's federal customs agency as saying. Meanwhile, exports to Asia — which has replaced Europe as the country's main energy client — were up 5.6 percent to $306.6 billion, the agency said.

0844 GMT — NATO can't be dependent on the whims of a president: Borrell

NATO "cannot be an alliance a la carte," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said after Donald Trump downplayed his commitment to NATO's security umbrella in Europe if he becomes US president again.

Trump ignited a political firestorm and sent a chill through the United States' European allies on Saturday when he said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO country that does not meet financial obligations.

"Let's be serious. NATO cannot be an a la carte military alliance, it cannot be a military alliance that works depending on the humour of the president of the US" day to day, Borrell said.

"It exists or it not exists," he said, adding that he was not going to keep commenting on "any silly idea" emerging from the US presidential election campaign.

0839 GMT — Poland's Tusk heads to Paris, Berlin as security concerns, Trump loom large

Poland's Tusk travels to France and Germany as the three European Union members seek to bind closer in the face of mounting security risks and concerns at the possible return to the US presidency of Donald Trump.

With the war in Ukraine soon to enter its third year, Trump sparked outrage among Western partners on Sunday after suggesting the United States might not protect NATO allies who are not spending enough on defence from a potential Russian offensive.

Warsaw, Paris and Berlin see EU unity on defence and a ramping up of the 27-member states' support for Ukraine as crucial at a time when the US backing of Kiev is wavering amid political infighting in Washington.

0719 GMT — Moldova says it found fragments of Russian drone near border with Ukraine

Moldova said it found fragments of a Russian drone near its border with Ukraine, as the conflict between Moscow and Kiev is set to enter its third year.

The Moldovan Border Police in a statement said authorities detected fragments of a Shahed drone near the commune of Etulia, which is close to its border with Ukraine.

Indicating there were no risks or dangers for the communities in the area, the police said all necessary measures to maintain "order, peace and public safety" were taken.

0648 GMT — Zelenskyy appoints four new military commanders

Zelenskyy has announced the appointment of four new military commanders, a shake-up he earlier said was necessary.

According to a decree published by the presidency on Sunday, Zelenskyy appointed Oleksandr Pavliuk as the new commander of Ground Forces, after the post was vacated by Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Last week, Syrskyi was appointed as the new commander-in-chief after the dismissal of Valeri i Zaluzhnyi.

Separate decrees also announced Yurii Sodol, Ihor Skibiuk and Ihor Plahuta as the new commanders of Ukraine's Combined Forces, Airborne Assault Forces and Territorial Defense Forces, respectively.

0455 GMT — Ukraine air force destroys 14 Russia-launched drones: Kiev

Ukraine's air defence systems have destroyed 14 out of 17 drones that Russia launched overnight and one Kh-59 cruise missile, Ukraine's Air Force said.

The Air Force said on the Telegram messaging app that Russia also launched missiles from S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems, but it did not say how many or whether they hit any targets.

Oleh Synehubov, governor of the Kharkiv region in Ukraine's northeast, said late on Sunday that Russia attacked his region with missiles launched from the S-300 systems in Russia's Belgorod region that borders Ukraine.

0200 GMT — Russia launches barrage of 45 drones over Ukraine

Russian forces have launched 45 drones over Ukraine in a five-and-a-half-hour barrage, officials said.

In a statement, the Ukrainian air force said it had shot down 40 of the Iranian-made Shahed drones over nine different regions, including on the outskirts of the country's capital, Kiev.

The attack targeted agricultural facilities and coastal infrastructure, officials for Ukraine's southern defense forces wrote on Telegram. They said that a strike in the Mykolaiv region had injured one person, sparking a fire and damaging residential buildings.

For our live updates from Sunday, February 11, click here.