Prigozhin’s end: The future of Wagner Group without its top brass

A plane crashed travelling from the Russian capital Moscow to St Petersburg on Wednesday with Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of mercenary Group Wagner, on board.

The incident took place in the region of Tver, Russia and left 10 people dead onboard the Embraer-135 plane.

Some reports have speculated that Prigozhin’s private plane may have been shot down by Russian air defences.

Hours before the incident, General Sergei Surovikin who some reports allege had prior knowledge of the June Wagner mutiny was reportedly removed from his post as head of Russia's Air Force.

Two months before, the Wagner leader had launched a mutiny against the Russian capital, Moscow, against President Vladimir Putin before it was called off and the leader eventually ended up in Belarus.

Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency has announced a special commission has been set up to investigate the incident.

This week Prigozhin had posted a video to his Telegram channel purportedly filmed somewhere in Africa, as the group’s leader pushed for Russians to invest money in the Central African Republic’s Russian House, a cultural centre tied to Prigozhin in the capital.

With many of the details remaining unclear, Russian observers believe that Wagner and its fighters will still likely have a role to play, despite the shifting dynamics concerning the mercenary group's longevity.

“After the short-lived coup, the Duma has reportedly started preliminary discussions on establishing a legal framework for Russian PMSCs (private military and security companies),” says Wouters, who’s also a former Belgian Air Force pilot and NATO official.

Wouters suggests there is no doubt that the profile and array of ‘security services’ that could legally be provided “would significantly be limited as compared to the present Wagner activities” and that “official control mechanisms would certainly be ironclad, given the insurrectionist antecedents of Wagner dating back to this early summer."

Esref Yalinkilicli, an expert on Eurasia and a former Moscow-based political analyst describes the incident as not surprising for Russian political observers, telling TRT World it arguably shows Prigozhin, Utkin and others from Wagner have been "liquidated" by the Kremlin.

According to Abdullah Agar, a leading Istanbul-based Turkish security expert there will likely be implications for the way in which the mercenary group carries out its future actions.

"The Kremlin will either restructure and transform Wagner’s operations in different regions or let the group continue to operate as it has previously done,” says Agar, insisting “Russia needs them for its proxy wars against the West.”

Many global observers had forecast a strong reaction from the Russian leadership due to the June mutiny, notably CIA head William Burns suggested the Putin leadership would enact revenge. He described Putin as being "the ultimate apostle of payback".

This sentiment is echoed by Yalinkilicli who believes Putin and his supporters sought personal revenge against Prigozhin after the mutiny arguably dealt a hard-hitting blow to the perception of the Kremlin. Following the plane crash, he argues Putin has now sent a strong message to both Wagner and pro-Wagner forces in Russia to avoid acting against the Kremlin's objectives.

According to Agar, June's mutiny entailed that the Wagner group crossed a Kremlin red line. Now with Wagner’s large influence across the globe, its well-trained troops, its sophisticated armament, he suggests that Russia should take a cautious approach to the post-Prigozhin period.

Yalinkilicli argues it underscores how the Putin and the Kremlin power-structure are pushing to integrate Wagner mercenaries into the regular Russian army’s military structure - something Prigozhin had long resisted while accusing them of conducting the Ukraine war on the wrong footing.

Wouters also believes the best clue to the group's future is to observe its main assets - its soldiers- have been re-oriented.

"Some have remained in Ukraine or returned to Russia, only to sign contracts with the MOD that Minister Shoigu had put in place intending to take control of Prigozhin’s combat force," he says.

A second group of soldiers has relocated to Belarus, where Wouters suggests "one can only hope Lukashenko will keep them under control and make sure they don’t become a threat to his own regime. It is likely therefore they will be constrained into a ‘train and assist’ role for the official Belarussian armed forces, which implies they will be funded through the Belarussian defence budget"

The third group has relocated to Africa, according to Wouters - which is one of the 15 or more countries where the group has a footprint. He believes Prigozhin presence in Africa last week reinforces the likelihood that the region "will remain the most important focus of Wagner. And will seek to expand into other failing or failed states like Niger."

According to Agar, “Wagner’s potential security value for Moscow and its influence across a wide region from the Caucasus to Syria and a number of African countries mean that the mercenary group belongs to Russia directly or indirectly.”

Yalinkilicli suggests despite Putin's anger over Prizgozhin’s June mutiny, the Kremlin will not completely destroy its wounded asset - Wagner and whether they become rebranded with a different name, he argues that "Russia will not give up a group like Wagner, which is crucial for Moscow’s proxy wars against the West in areas from the Middle East to Africa.”

Agar believes that it would be unwise to “liquidate a group like Wagner” without creating a proper replacement to it. He suggests the Russian state could potentially use Wagner in different ways, potentially including a tactic of “a complete disassociation” and insisting that “its acts have nothing to do with the Kremlin”.

He believes regardless of circumstances Wagner will likely continue to operate in the interests of the Russian state.

“Wagner has to continue because there is no device as valuable as Wagner in Russia to serve the State’s interests. As a result, it will continue to serve Russia in the same or different forms,” Agar says.

According to Yalinkilicli, the Kremlin will probably restructure Wagner to make sure the group continues to function for Russian interests as a useful instrument across the globe. Under the Kremlin, Wagner would continue to serve Russia interests, from training different African states militaries, to playing roles in military coups like the ones which recently happened in West Africa, he argues.

In Africa analysts believe Wagner could still likely play an important role.

Yalinkilicli also argues that Wagner is crucial for Russia in places like Sudan, where Moscow aims to build a military base, and the Central African Republic, where the mercenary group operates gold mines. “These Wagner activities are both financially profitable and politically beneficial for Russia,” he says.

Agar would not be surprised if Wagner or a similar group guise started waging “asymmetric actions aligned with Russian interests” against Western assets in countries like Germany or regions like the Baltics.

He believes it also entails the Russian state can use the June mutiny and Prigozhin’s perceived fall from grace to favour its interests through hard power tactics, such as propelling Wagner to act as a non-state actor, he says.

Wouters suggests the future of the group should be expected to be outside Russia aside from its administrative headquarters in St Petersburg.

"Besides the legal statute of Wagner, the question of the structure and leadership of the group remains open. Notwithstanding a possible re-branding of the organisation (similar to the re-branding of the US-based Blackwater group after its reputation was fatally destroyed in Iraq), a complete overhaul of the group’s leadership will likely be mandated by Putin," explains Wouters

Given the loyalty and popularity of Prigozhin and Utkin, he argues it would not be wise for Putin to draw upon an outsider from the Kremlin and suggests “promoting someone from the present top layer with combat experience and respect from the troops is the more likely course of action. The name of former Colonel Troshev has appeared in the media in this regard," he adds.