Russia-Ukraine war threatening to become drawn-out 'war of attrition'

Washington DC — Ukraine war risks descending into a protracted "war of attrition," a noted expert has warned, raising concerns that the West may have already begun to lose the political resolve needed to sustain its support for Kiev.

"There are so many variables at play that I can only say that the likelihood of a swift and complete success by Ukraine is the least probable case here," Constanze Stelzenmuller, director of the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings Institute, said on Thursday.

"The most probable scenario is a continued, long-lasting war of attrition, in which we don't muster the energy to give Ukraine what it needs because we don’t have the political capital for it," Constanze, who specialises in transatlantic foreign and security policy and strategy, said during an event organised by Brookings Foreign Policy programme, adding that Russia also doesn't have the political capital for it.

The former lawyer and journalist said that there are many ways the West could prevent an outright Russian swift victory, but warned the war of attrition could deal a major blow to Europe's fabric.

"If we do let that happen, if we allow things to slide and if we allow path dependencies to happen, then that will do a great deal of damage to the fabric of European and Western democracy," Constanze noted.

Last month, Ukraine launched a major incursion into Russia's Kursk region, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying it was aimed at creating a buffer zone.

On Thursday, Russia claimed to have retaken 10 villages in the region, with Zelenskyy conceding that Russia launched its own counter-offensive in Kursk.

Western powers are under immense pressure from Zelenskyy who wants Ukraine to be allowed to use long-range missiles against Russia.

But President Vladimir Putin has warned that the West would be directly fighting with Russia if it allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, a move he said would alter the nature and scope of the war.

Zelenskyy wants to use Western missiles including long-range US ATACMS and British Storm Shadows deep into Russian territory to limit Moscow's ability to launch attacks.

On Friday, leaders of both US and UK will meet in Washington DC to discuss Zelenskyy's demands.

Mexico aiding Russia?

Meanwhile, during the same session, Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Policy program at Brookings and the former White House Russia adviser in Trump administration, said that the West and the US should be worried about vulnerable countries that let themselves open to Russia, including Mexico.

"Mexico is somewhere we should actually be very concerned about at the moment," Hill said at the event.

Hill noted that while the US tends to focus on immigration when considering its relationship with Mexico, Moscow has been expanding its influence in the country. She also mentioned that Mexico remains one of the countries that does not require visas for Russian citizens.

Hill also warned that Russia is building up Russia Today RT, claiming that RT Spanish operating from Mexico and other Latin American countries is the most well-sourced out of all RT outlets.

"We have seen many times the effect of RT operating out of Mexico or elsewhere in Latin America having impacts here in the US and also in Europe," she said.

Last week, the US accused two RT employees of having role in a $10 million scheme to distribute content to US audiences to meddle in the US elections. Russia brushed off the accusations, calling it "rubbish."

NATO under threat?

Other experts warned of Russian threat to weak NATO nations.

"He (Putin) will not stop there (Ukraine). Most likely, Moldova would be next. Possibly Georgia… but then possibly the Baltic states, which are members of NATO," said David J.Kramer, Executive Director at George W. Bush Institute.

"Since we (the US) are member of NATO, we would be put in the position whether we will come to the defence of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia should Putin and Russia attack."

He said if US doesn't that would be the end of NATO "because NATO members live under Article 5 which considers attack on one is an attack on all."

Kramer also said the only chance to prevent future wars is by aiding Ukraine.

"The world is watching how we react. If we want to prevent Beijing from attacking Taipei, the way to do it is help the Ukrainians."