Russian wheat export prices stable after spiking due to grain deal exit

Export prices for Russian wheat maintained levels last week after spiking a week earlier due to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, analysts said.

Russia pulled out of the Türkiye- and UN-backed deal that had allowed the safe export via the Black Sea of Ukrainian grain, after complaining for months that conditions for its extension had not been fulfilled.

According to the IKAR agriculture consultancy, the price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of August was $241 per ton last week, down from $242 per ton a week earlier.

Russia-focused agricultural consultancy Sovecon estimates total Russian wheat exports in July at 4.4 million tons, compared to 2.5 million tons in July 2022 and a historic average of 2.8 million tons for the month of July.

Russia exported 930,000 tons of grain last week compared to 1.2 million tons a week earlier, including 900,000 tons of wheat compared to 1.1 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.

Wheat harvest totaled 27.1 mmt (31.8 mmt) from 6.7 mln ha (7.3 mln ha), with an average yield of 4.04 mt/ha (4.36 mt/ha). The wheat harvesting pace is accelerating amid drier weather, Sovecon noted.

The wheat harvest as of July 26 totalled 27.1 million tons (versus 31.8 million tons а year earlier) from 6.7 million hectares (versus 7.3 million hectares).

This accounts for 22% of the total area.

"There is a lot of chatter about low new wheat crop quality. It was negatively impacted by the recent rains and also it seems that many farmers cut the fertilizer application amid cost cutting considerations", Sovecon noted.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR: Product: Most recent data: Change from week earlier - Domestic 3rd class 13,900 rbls/t +300 rbls/t wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon) - Sunflower seeds 26,325 rbls/t +1,925 rbls/t (Sovecon) - Domestic sunflower 76,175 rbls/t +4,000 rbls/t oil (Sovecon) - Domestic soybeans 34,600 rbls/t +600 rbls/t (Sovecon) - Export sunflower $930/t +$45 oil (IKAR) - White sugar, $688.74/t -$6.91 Russia's south (IKAR)