Will the UK win or lose after Brexit?

Dubbed Brexit, the people of the United Kingdom opted out of the EU on June 2016. Since then, the country has dealt with some negative consequences. Its annual GDP growth slowed down, real estate market stagnated and foreign investments declined along with inbound tourists.

However, some economists portray more positive scenarios for the UK economy.

With the UK’s ongoing no-deal Brexit process, some financial institutions have started to move their assets to European cities in order to save their market capacity in the EU.

Several financial institutions, such as Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have prepared their Europe hub and shifted hundreds of billions of assets out of the UK to Ireland, Germany and France.

For example, Barclays moved nearly $215 billion worth of assets to Dublin to prepare itself for a no-deal Brexit, at a cost of about $200 million.

Moving assets out of the UK has also cost for the companies. Bank of America alone has spent $400 million for the transaction of its assets.

The shifting of assets will hit tax revenue and the reputation of the country as a world financial centre.

Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England, told the Guardian that the cost of Brexit on the UK economy has reached at least $50 billion in a year.

Make UK, a union of manufacturers, has also issued warnings as British manufacturers are facing a global slowdown as well as Brexit uncertainty. Official data last week showed the sharpest fall in output in five years in the final quarter of 2018.

Some 49 percent of 429 manufacturers surveyed for Make UK said a no-deal Brexit would make Britain unattractive, compared with 28 percent who said Britain would still be an attractive location, with bigger companies more likely to express concerns.

“Some of our politicians have put selfish political ideology ahead of the national interest and people’s livelihoods and left us facing the catastrophic prospect of leaving the EU next month with no deal,” Make UK’s chair, Judith Hackitt, said on Tuesday.

What is behind the UK’s Brexit decision?

Economic consultant Yakup Kocaman spoke to TRT World about the UK’s current intentions for Brexit. 

“Queen Elizabeth and English imperialism, which she represents, are responsible for Brexit. If you throw up the idea of leaving the EU and follow and observe who supports and backs this where you will end up will be the Buckingham Palace,” he said.

According to Kocaman, there are some logical reasons behind the UK's exit. “England, since 2000, became an open market for other EU countries. In 2017, Britain had a foreign trade deficit of $90 billion to other EU countries. Out of the other 27 EU countries, they have a deficit with 22 of them - $25 billion worth of this deficit in 2017 was to Germany.”

He added: “England has become an open market for aviation, biotechnology and high technology German products and this worries Great Britain.”

When you compare this with the past three hundred years of British colonial history, Kocaman said, it is impossible for England to act like a global power while it is part of the EU and under German and sometimes French pressure.

“When it comes to Russia, it is impossible for England while part of the EU to go toe to toe with a Russia which has very close energy sector relations with Germany,” he said.

According to Kocaman, a new world order is being formed and the more the UK stays in the EU the further it is from restoring its global dominance. 

“If you watch the moves Queen Elizabeth and English government made outside the EU in the last two years, understanding Brexit becomes easier,” he added.

England is trying to re-establish relations with the British Commonwealth, which includes India, Pakistan and Nigeria. 

These countries are English speaking and their elites have been educated in the UK. 

“England is trying to establish a new world with its former colonies. For this, they have set up ministerial level specialised authorised units,” Kocaman said.

He emphasised that the UK is trying to build the starting blocks for a new global and economic power which will include 1.8 billion people

“Basically Brexit's purpose here is to make the UK a global player once again at a time when it is stuck both economically and politically in Europe,” Kocaman told TRT World.

With this purpose, the UK has immensely increased its trade with 52 countries which are part of the commonwealth.

Kocaman expects that the UK financial sector will shrink by 30 percent upon leaving the EU, but despite this, it is still twice the size of EU financial centres like Frankfurt and Paris.

After Brexit, Kocaman said, London will still be the financial centre for the countries in the EU.

“First order of business for England after Brexit will be to put high tariffs on technology products coming in from Germany France Italy and Spain and will promote the production of advanced military and industrial technology inside the country.” he added. “The UK may be affected short term, but this is not an economic crisis for them.”