Drought and denial: Ascendance of a far-right presidential candidate in Argentina

La Carlota is a small rural city, serving as the administrative centre of the Juarez Celman district in the Province of Cordoba. It's situated 500 kilometres away from Buenos Aires, the city where three years ago an economist turned lawmaker, gained prominence after appearing on numerous TV shows in Argentina. Milei garnered high viewership, and in return, television producers inadvertently fueled a political phenomenon, transforming him from an unknown pundit and economist into the winner of the primaries last August, now positioned as the leading contender for Argentina's presidential elections scheduled for October 22.

Much like in 17 of Argentina's 24 provinces, Milei secured a victory in the Province of Cordoba. Of Cordoba's 24 districts, Juarez Celman was where Milei achieved the most substantial margin of victory, garnering 44 percent of the votes.

La Carlota, like numerous rural areas across Argentina, has been grappling with an extended period of historic drought over the past three years, reaching its most severe levels. While this drought can be attributed to the impacts of La Nina, a natural and cyclical phenomenon, the severity of its effects are still ongoing in some regions. This, coupled with the elevated temperatures witnessed in the southern cone of South America during recent summers, has raised significant concerns within the scientific community.

"I don't really see the climate crisis in that way. I think these are natural cycles. The news talks about this being caused by human-made climate change, but I'm not sure about that. You hear about major droughts that happened 60 years ago, and you start to have doubts," says 28-year-old Gonzalo Grazzutti.

This young entrepreneur from La Carlota began his career as a truck driver after completing high school and eventually managed to purchase his first old truck after years of hard work. Over time, he acquired a second truck and, a few years later, a sprayer that he uses to provide services to local farmers.

"The past three years, with the drought and the economic crisis, have been terrible. Progress has come to a halt, even though I'm working as hard as ever. Something different needs to happen, and this eccentric guy seems to be the only one proposing new ideas. But I didn't vote for him. He seems a bit unusual to me. However, I'm not too worried if he actually comes to power. It can't get much worse than this," Grazzutti concludes.

Javier Milei appears to have drawn upon the public's concerns, mainly focusing on economic issues, highlighting the involvement of the ruling class in these matters. However, notably various economic actors have historically been a part of the challenges Argentina’s economy has faced, especially its monetary policies.

But this anger isn't confined solely to economics. Milei presents an anti-hegemonic stance at his core, expressing frustration with a series of messages relentlessly pushed by both national and international power centres. These messages have provoked significant weariness among certain segments, rivalling the fatigue caused by monetary problems.

Milei perceives various social movements as part of what he terms as post-Marxist cultural warfare. Among his views, he suggests that efforts to address the climate crisis align with certain socialist ideals.

In a recent conversation with US conservative political journalist Tucker Carlson, Milei expressed that "the world has experienced other peaks of high temperatures like it’s currently experiencing," suggesting it to be "a cyclical behavior."

While many "green policies" have underlying economic motivations, with some climate activists highlighting a possible emphasis on profit over genuine climate concerns, the global environmental landscape is intricate. In particular, countries in the global South may have different environmental contributions compared to their counterparts in the global North. Milei seems to take a stance that sidesteps these complexities. Notably this viewpoint arguably may not wholly encapsulate the observable and measurable consequences of human activity on the climate, both in Argentina and globally.

"I'm uncertain whether the drought we've experienced is directly linked to human activity. And when I say uncertain, I mean that we simply lack sufficient data. We've encountered historic droughts before, and we will encounter them again. These are natural cycles. However, when you observe the earlier onset of rising temperatures in spring or unseasonable frost in February, these are unprecedented occurrences," explains Henry Anselmi, the lead Agricultural Engineer overseeing the INTA Station of La Carlota.

Established in 1956 and maintained across radically different ruling administrations, the National Institute of Agricultural Technology stands out as one of the state institutions most accustomed in terms of continual collaboration with the private sector. It exemplifies an interaction between the state and farmers that, despite having been especially strained over recent decades, functions at its best.

"Several contributing factors exacerbate the challenges posed by drought. Argentina's agricultural landscape, characterised by landowners who don't work their land but merely lease it, allows them to pocket half of the profit with zero risk, passing all the risk onto the producer. In addition, land leases operate on a year-to-year basis, typically going to the highest bidder among producers, fostering a cutthroat competition for profit margins. This, in turn, impedes the implementation of best practices, leading to soil over-exploitation. In Argentina, especially in recent years, we've shifted away from genuine agricultural production and into what is essentially soil depletion. Like mining. We're treating soil as an infinite resource when it clearly isn't," states Anselmi, who has been with INTA since 1984 and is nearing retirement.

Institutions like INTA play a crucial role in adapting to rapidly changing climate conditions. Their research includes developing annual profiles for various seed varieties in diverse geographic regions, providing farmers with reliable information concerning which seeds are best suited for their area and soil conditions. However, Milei has proposed closing numerous ministries, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, which INTA belongs to. He has also expressed plans to close down national public scientific institutions, arguing scientific research should exclusively be undertaken by the private sector.

In La Carlota, one of these seed trials is underway on a small section of a 300-hectare field, testing 13 different wheat varieties. "The owners of this field are exemplary producers who actively work their land. They've invested in their own machinery, continually reinvest in their production, and handle everything themselves with the assistance of two employees. They are among the hardest-working individuals deeply engaged in the agricultural production process. And, on the other side, they support Milei," says Anselmi about Marcelo and Oscar Pico, two brothers in their late 40s who own the land hosting the INTA trial.

"When I was a child, our family had a dairy farm on this field. Back then, we may not have earned as much, but life was much happier. People in the city didn't harbour the same animosity towards producers as they do nowadays. We were all in this together. And, I believe that this current animosity has been imposed from above, by those in power over the past two decades. I can't say for certain whether the drought or extreme heat result from climate change or natural cycles, and I'm confident Milei doesn't know either. It's unreasonable to claim otherwise. I just hope he doesn't follow through on half of what he says he'll do. I hope he doesn't close INTA; we value our collaboration with them. However, more irrational than Milei is repeatedly electing the same individuals and expecting change. They've all been major letdowns," says Marcelo Pico when asked why he voted for Milei and intends to do so again.

Anselmi describes many of the farmers as being hardworking, compassionate, and integral to driving Argentina's economy. Reflecting on the support Milei has received in places like La Carlota and other agricultural regions in Argentina, he suggests that fully understanding the intricacies of political discourse, including those presented by figures like Milei, can be a challenge for many. The lead Agricultural Engineer also believes a significant portion of the population may not be fully versed in their own history, certain ideas can resurface. Anselmi suggests that some of Milei's concepts, reminiscent to those from previous eras, are being presented anew and appear to be resonating among many. It has led to him, being concerned that perhaps the implications of such ideas may not be fully grasped by everyone.

Meanwhile Argentines will cast their ballots for a new president on 22nd October to determine the future of the country. Milei's stance on climate change, coupled with his suggestions regarding public scientific institutions, has prompted discussions in Argentina about the country's approach to significant environmental challenges, especially if he assumes office.